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The stats for Bayer's shots on goal in the matches they've played so far are these, with the shots within the frame in parenthesis: Freiburg away - 16 (7), one player less after 28 minutes Augsburg at home - 17 (9) Wolfsburg away - 12 (3) one player less after 7 minutes Monaco away - 13 (2) Werder at home - 26 (10) Hertha at home - 21 (13) Kopenhagen at home - 17 (9) Dortmund away - 11 (6) Kopenhagen away - 20 (9). To put it in simpler terms, they average more than 10 shots within the frame at home, and the high figures off the frame suggest they keep trying. The figures for Benfica? Estoril away - 15 (9) Moreirense at home - 15 (9) Zenit at home - 17 (5) one player less after 18 minutes Setubal away - 15 (10) Sporting at home - 18 (8) Boavista away - 10 (6) Fereira at home- 11 (4) Rio Ave - 34 (14) with extra time. We've got two teams with great offenses for whom a tied match is of little importance, and will certainly avoid a no score match. The home team have Calhanoglu, who will shoot on the goal from any set piece under 40 meters. The away team don't shy from shooting from any situation either. This is a match with one of the lowest odds on overs, and at the same time with lowest margin on shots within the frame. I think that the bet benefits from the fact one can expect both sides to contribute. Team overs are also a good bet, but as I don't believe one team will go under the set margin, an overall over seems best to me. Details

Leverkusen dropped in form in September, are missing a few important players and I see no reason for them to be such favorites. The only place they are at full strength is on offense, their strongest side on paper as well, but that was true the previous four times and they still scored just two goals.
The only match Benfica lost this season was to Zenit, against whom they were a player short throughout the match, and Zenit, next to Porto, were also the only ones to beat them in the past 11 months! Judging from all the available info, it seems Cesar will defend, so one could say they're not missing anyone (Fejsa and Sulejmani haven't played since spring). A slightly safer but also less lucrative option is to bet on possession - Marathon has a 54 margin, some bookmakers have 52.5. Even if they manage to win somehow, I doubt the counterattacking Leverkusen will significantly prevail on possession. Details

Even last year when their defense was a joke, PSG did well here, having conceded only 22 goals, with Annonay's 20 saves. Omeyer is on the goal today. PSG limited Cesson to 19 and Metalurg to 22 goals in Skopje, in their two last games. I think those two games were a response to the defeat in St.Raphael. I think PSG will be very motivated today. Nimes could turn into a tricky opponent otherwise.
Home team struggle with injuries, their middle back Rahim and two left backs are out, forcing Saurina to spend a lot of time in the game, in his not very efficient season. PSG know right back Hallgrimsson well since he spend the last season in Paris. Stopping him will be the key today. I believe they are capable of it. If so, Nimes who scored 19 and 21 goal in the last two games, can't score more than 25 today. Details

The main reason for this tip is the fact visiting team have already surrendered. Their coach Jimenez said he doesn't care about the possible embarrassment. He doesn't want to put more pressure on his key players because he already doesn't have a lot of choice when it comes to the line up and he can't afford any injuries in such an insignificant game. Carlos Casas and defense specialist Mendoza didn't even travel to Barcelona. It seems like his two key players and top scorers Balaguer and Renaud won't play much either. Both have minor injuries and the coach won't take any chances today ahead of a very important game against Zamora. On the other hand, Pascual has an excellent team at his disposal. Their tough defense and aggressive offense have proved deadly for Ciudad Encantada last season, when the opponent played with all of their top players. They lost 41-21 back then, and I expect a similar outcome today. Details

Skive are known for rushing into insufficiently prepared attacks, but that didn't bear fruit so far this season. Being the favorite in this game, Randers will certainly have a say in its outcome. They have had only one over in 6 rounds this season, and two consecutive heavy unders at this margin. The team are still in the process of coming together. They rely on the left side of their offense more than the less efficient right side, and on their good-quality play maker Shumacher. With quite a long list of injured players, they only mostly use 8 players and 2 goal keepers. Besides, Randers had to do a very tough game in Odense less than two days ago, which suggests a well-organized, but not so keen approach today. If their game falls apart early on, it would get this above the margin of 55 goals. Randers have a goal - the Cup semi final. A total of 50 goals is a more likely outcome on their road to that objective. Details

These teams met 6 times last season. RIK never once went above this margin. They scored 22, 24, 23, 26, 21, and 24. What changed since then? Redbergslids have lost a few players who are important for their offense, and after that decided to focus on tough defense more. Guif, the toughest opponent for them in the league, now have a top-level goal keeper Lucau, and put more focus on defense. The visiting team no longer engage in outrunning like they did in the past, but RIK weren't able to score more than 26 goals in their head-to-head games back then, and I don't see how they could pull it off today. Details

BSK are out of form, that much is clear. They are missing Hippe, which proved to be an issue as their perimeter lineup is just not the same. Jungman was also missing on the goal, and returned in a Cup match, proving his value to the team. Although they do have their issues and their game did not seem to work up to now, I believe they can get their first victory today. If they cannot beat Lillestrom, who are basically a second league team if we're being honest here, then who can they beat? The backbone of the team is the same as last year, when they were impressive and made more serious teams than Lillestrom struggle, reaching playoff in the end. We should also not ignore the fact that this is just their second home match. In their last one Fyllingen did better, but BSK played a great second half. Last year they lost just 4 home games. The away team are coming in a good mood after two victories against Notteroy, a team down to their size, so we should not see it as a big thing. They showed their true colours in home defeats against DHK and Haslum, and the fact remains they have yet to play a tough away match against any of the favorites. BSK need to wake up, and this is a great chance, both for them and for me, and I'll have to back their decisive victory with a bigger stake. The finalists of last year's playoff definitely deserve it in a match against a new team in the first league. Details

Wetzlar seemed to have abandoned their defense-oriented game from previous seasons. The fact they're scoring almost 29 goals per game, which makes their defense the second best one in the league, only goes to prove it. They played very tough defenses (Kiel, Hamburg, and Melsungen) in the tree previous rounds and scored 29, 31, and 28 goals, respectively, without their first choice left back Fath (6 goals on average). Balic and right back Tonnesen are doing great together. Bliznac and Laudt are doing a good job replacing Fath. Fath might be back on the team today, which will make their offense even more efficient. Lubbecke, on the other hand, score a lot, but also concede a lot. Neither defense nor offense have the consistency. 62 and 63 goals were scored in their last two games against Hamburg and Lemgo. 57 or more goals were scored in 4 out of their last 5 games. As for the head-to-head games, which are relevant today since teams didn't change a lot in the meantime, 3 out of the last 4 ended with 59 goals or more. The one that didn't was Wetzlar's 32-21 win. Details

Ljubo Vranjes has been furious with his players after the defeat in Kolding by 16 goals. He said they played like clowns. Right back Glandorf said ahead of this game that they have to show character. I think that promoted Erlangen will have a tough time today. Flensburg didn't play home in over a month. They will look to make amends today and I expect them focused and extremely motivated from the start. I'll try with a half time handicap. They were five goals up in both of their last home meetings - 16-11 with Melsungen, and 13-8 against Friesenheim. Erlangen were 10 goals down against Lowen, and 9 against Magdeburg at half time. They struggled with offense efficiency in both of those games, and the situation won't be any different today. This bet is available with Marathon, Bwin, Unibet, 365... Details

Usti nad Labem did their first round game better than anyone expected. With Nymburk as their opponent, Martin Stavel's team were expected to crash, but instead managed to stay at opponent's heels for three quarters. The Americans that joined were clearly a good choice. All three of them played the leading parts, next to Rahonov. Vette can do better, but that is yet another reason to opt for this pick. Usti have been doing great home last year. They lost only three out of the 21 games they did home last year. Only Prostejov and Nymburk have a better home record. They beat Opava in both head to head championship games last year, while Opava won their Cup head-to-head. Opava still struggle with injuries, but managed to record a win over Kolin home on account of fierceness. Home games were always their strong suit. The away meetings are not as good. Their record was 9-12 last season. Given all the injuries, the less than impressive performances away, Usti's good games home and their excellent opening round performance, Usti's win at these odds definitely has value. Details