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Edmund is bursting with confidence after doing a lot in Davis Cup (two wins - over Lajovic and Tipsarevic). The total 6-0 record in sets suggests what kind of rhythm Edmund had in those matches. Toronto will be very important for Kyle since he's after the Top 50. His first opponent is Diez, a Canadian who is currently ranked better than ever (190). But Diez had a bad record (41-60) even at challenger level and mostly plays on hard court. Diez recently had a chance to get his first ATP wins in Hamburg but got stopped by Wessels, who is still a junior. On the other hand, Kyle is slowly but surely going after Top 50. He covered the the +4,5 handicap 8 times in the last 10 wins. He didn't cover it early in the year in Doha when Monz was well into Top 100 and in Miami against Vesely. The Czech is, however, two levels above Diez in every sense of the word. Edmund covered the handicap against Stepanek (+5) who is well-experienced, and Klizan (+7) who is also ATP level two two titles from this season. Some wins aginst CH players like Meister (+7), Sarkissian (+6), Mmoh (+11), Albot (+6), Arnaboldi (+5) are also relevant for this match. He practically didn't have any slips all season long. The only counter argument here could be Edmund's transition from clay court to hard court. BUt Diez has to go through the same transition which is why I think that won't be any problem for Edmund. Edmund is better and is bursting with confidence now after leading his country into a Davis Cup win (Murray wasn't there). Diez has just one futures and one Ch on hard court this season. Santillian, who is about to be eliminated from Top 30 beat him on futures level and Ivashka (outside of Top 200) by 8 games. I think Edmund will cover this handicap easily. Details

I know the odds have been slashed and that this is border-line profitable but I also don't see how it can fail, except with a series of double-faults. Even taking a 30-00 lead on return doesn't have to mean anything here. The surface here is very fast like it always it, Isner's return is bad and the fact is, Delpo managed to beat three rivals in Stuttgart last week without dropping a single serve. Simon, Millman and Dimitrov all failed at converting break points against the Argentine, who served brilliantly. I don't see Isner converting a break point in the opening match here. John is the obvious choice when it comes to these kind of bets. He played the first set tie-break in the last 10 matches on grass court. Ram, Muller, Troicki and even Soeda forced him into the tie break and I really don't see a way for Delpo to drop a serve here. The last time they met was in 2013 in Cincinnati. The first two sets finished in tie-breaks. They opened with a tie break in Indian Wells in 2009 in desert and very slow conditions in hardcourt terms. Everything suggests we'll see a tie-break here. That's the most normal thing when it comes to Isner. Details

These players met in Ostrava last year. Cervantes gave Dominik a lesson in tennis back then, limiting him to just 2 games in total. Granted, Kellovsky has made progress since but I don't think he made enough progress to be able to cover this. He managed to get one futures title this season and then beat Hamou in Ostrava and got a set against Martin. But objectively, Hamou is far from good rhythm. He stunned Kudryavtsev as an underdog here but that was a surprise only when we look at the odds since the Russian was never good on clay court. We need to point our that the Czech is a futures player who doens't have good numbers even on that level (32-48). He has 5-18 on clay court. Last season in a clay court match against Muchon, he got 6 games and 2 against Coppejans. Neither of them are close to to Inigo+s quality. The Spaniard is Top 100 for a while now and has 10 ATP wins in 2016. He struggled at the start here but Brands were at one point almost a Top 50 player. He stayed under this margin in the wins over Beck, Fabbiano, Munoz and even Granollers, who is in Roland Garros, round of 16. Inigo is one of the top players in Prostejov. I think the margin is off and that this will finish well under. Dominik was limited to 2 games a year ago. This would go even if he gets 7 games but I expect Inigo to do this convincingly. That should be more than enough to see games under here. Details

Bourgou did great things this season, he reached Bucaramanga and Santo Domingo semi-finals, and An-Ning final. He managed to defeat Schwartzman in Bordeaux. That match was the best confirmation of Mathias' current confidence. He lost the first set after a tight tiebreak, but he made a comeback. In the end he won by 6 games against a quality player like Diego. The Frenchman has clearly been steadily improving in all segments. On the other side we have Van Peperzeel's form. He also played at An-Ning, and while Mathias reached the final, he won only one game against Banes, a player who never reached the Top 300. The week before that, in Nanjing, he lost to Ghedin who is currently outside the Top 500. It is obvious that Gavin is out of form, especially when it comes to clay court. He struggled on futures clay as well, Goluza, who is ranked outside the Top 2000, won a set against him, and he lost to Nolan (950). Absolutely everything suggests that Mathias should easily win today. I expect that he will win in straight sets and that this match will stay under the set margin. Gavin finished his last match by winnign a game and I don't see why he would take a set into tiebreak against Bourgue. Two years ago, at the Futures level, they were at exactly 20 games in Bourgue's win, a lot has changed in his favor since then. He is currently playing his best tennis, my impression is that the Frenchman will definitely dominate this match. Details

Montanes is obviously feeling young again, playing great in his 36th year. His confidence was boosted back after San Luis Potosi, Marrakesh (semis) and Barcelona (third round), proving he's still got the game for the ATP level. Now he's in the Top 100 again. He did a great job here, not letting his rivals get even a set in the first two rounds (Laaksonen, Kicker), and he was especially dominant against the Argentinian who only got four games.
Reuter seems a less dangerous rival in comparison. He shouldn't have even been her after losing to Beck in the qualifiers, but he got in as a lucky loser after Brands pulled out. He beat Brown, who is completely unpredictable, and then used the favorable draw in the second round, Maden who got only one challenger win ever, here in Heilbronn this week. He did play well, but there's no denying that he also had a lot of luck getting to the quarterfinal. True, Reuter did make the favorites' lives complicated a few times - like winning a set against Clezar last season, making Haider-Maurer struggle. But those are occasional flashes, and I find more interesting his series of blunders at the futures level in the last month and a half. He got beaten by Tatlot, got only four games against Venturino who's out of top 900, and got beaten by Artunedo who's out of top 600. He was a big favorite in all those. On the other side is Montanes who's playing great tennis right now, and who has beaten Sousa (30th player of the world) in Barcelona recently while staying under this margin, and he took Nadal to a deciding set in Madrid, and stayed under this margin in all his wins in Marrakesh and Barelona (Škugor, Gimeno Traver, Bagnis, Carballes Baena). All players ranked better than Reuter. The Spaniard did recently make a big mistake in Estoril qualifiers, losing to Caruso. That defeat is difficult to explain, it just wasn't Montanes' day. But, he showed in the first two duels in Heilbronn that his crisis is over, and if he left Laaksonen and Kicker under this margin, I think this margin of 21 games is definitely worth a medium stake of under. It's hard to see how Reuter could take this over, especially after Montanes who's been very focused and in a great mood in the first two rounds. Details

Zverev is a talented young guy with a bright future if his health serves him. He even made some of the Top 10 players struggle this year, but his lack of experience didn't let him do more. He should have it easier against Jaziri, though. He's routinely beaten Struff this week, and had a tougher time against Bellucci. But, the Brazilian is a better player, ATP level, Malek usually spends his time in challengers, and Alexander had 6-3 4-2, allowing his rival to come back. Malek is still not up to that level and he can hardly turn things around. Zverev will dominate. Jaziri only had two clay wins prior to coming to Barcelona. He can thank for being in the third round to the draw, too. Chung and Olivo are still a challenger level, just like he is. Zverev is a different level, so I expect him to win this in straight sets. The odds make an under of the games a better option because Malek could resist at first, but Zverev will make him lose any chance he has. Zverev will be able to use his return here and aggressive game to win points directly. I definitely think the total number of games will stay under this margin. Details

Honestly, my expectations were for around 1,10 at Fabbiano's win. I was rather surprised by the odds and think that the 1,80 at Thomas' win definitely has value. There is rather big difference between these two players. On the one hand, Fabbiano managed to get into Top 100 recently, after a brilliant opening part of the season. He got two wins in Chennai main draw at the very start (beat Muller). Fabbiano played semifinals of Shenzhen and then another semis at challenger level. That saw him get into Top 100. However, one slip in Naples was enough for him to lose that status. Ignatic took advantage of his the Italian being adjusted to different conditions. We cannot say anything about the defeat to Dzumhur.
On the other side there is Edoard who is a futures player and who has only a handful of wins at this level. I think the bookmakers were partly shocked with his win from last week over Sijsling, whose form is fluctuating. I have to put the emphasis on the fact Lopez-Perez beat him by 8 games. De Lore beat him by 7 before that in Naples. Fabbiano wants to make amends for that slip in Naples now, while Eremin isn't even close to Top 300 at the moment. There are no doubles for me here. Even an average performance by Fabbiano should be enough for his win in straight sets. The difference in quality is more than obvious. Details

Dutra Silva is now Top 100, and he's got into the rhythm, judging by his game in Barletta so far. He routinely beat Golubev, and then easily dealt with Maxi Gonzalez, something nobody saw coming. He easily covered this handicap in both those matches. He actually covered this handicap in all his clay wins this season, nine total before Barletta. There were a few big names, too, like G. Melzer, Cleza, Monteiro and De Greef. Zopp seems the least tricky of them all, and he was very close to losing to Vatutin yesterday. Vatutin had a match-serve, but inexperience took its part, and the Estonian survived. That's not going to be as easy against Dutra Silva in his current form. Dutra Silva is far better here, able to dictate the rhythm from the baseline so Jurgen is going to have a hard time matching him. Zopp came to Barletta with all kinds of numbers, surviving two thriller matches (Vanni, Vatutin), but that won't do against the Brazilian. Also, this is Zopp's first clay tournament, while Dutra played over 20 clay matches already. Also, Dutra got two routine wins this week, and Zopp played two thrillers that he easily could've lost. I expect the handicap to be at least one game higher, so I think that Dutra will routinely take care of this. Details

Kuznetsov did a great job in the first hardcourt part of the season. He reached Doha quarter-final, and he was not far from defeating Nadal, and then at the Australian Open he lost to Monfils in the fourth round in a tight match. Last week at the Indian Wells he recorded back-to-back wins, he provided strong resistance against Wawrinka and took the second set into tiebreak, and we can conclude that the conditions in Florida will suit him considering above mentioned performances. It won't be easy for Dutra Silva since he played only four hardcourt matches in the last three seasons, counting in the start of this season. He lost three of them and confirmed that he is a clay court and challenger level oriented player. While Dutra is currently around the 100th position, Kuznetsov is showing ambition for more than Top 50, and if he keeps it up this way, he could fulfill his ambitions. Recently at Irving, Dutra won only five games against Bedene, and the same in the qualification defeat against Paul. He got the chance to play in the main draw as the lucky loser, but it is unlikely that will bring him anything. Kuznetsov is a much better player than those that easily defeated Dutra, even Shane was in the lead by a set over the Brazilian in the Miami qualifications, and he is outside the Top 700. There are a lot of indications that this match will be a one-way street in which the only unknown fact is how many games will Rogerio win. I cannot see a scenario in which the Brazilian will be able to take a set into tiebreak, and I believe that if he stayed at five games against Bedene and Paul, that he will not be much better this time either, so I believe that this match will stay under the margin. Details

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Pella beat Giraldo easy by 8 games, which gave him a huge boost of confidence since Giraldo is not a harmless opponent. The win over Isner also confirmed that Guido has a say at this level. Gimeno came to Rio with only one win this season. He outplayed Ebden very early on but injury big hit him lately. He's miles away from top form. He made it through to QFs on account of luck since he played only one full match in qualification, while all the other opponents retired. He was beaten badly to Ramanathan early int he season and then lost to Dodig, Smyczek and Clezar. Every one of those players managed to cover this handicap against Traver. This is the last season in his carrier and the fact he made it this far is just as unbelievable as the injuries his opponents suffered one by one to get him here. Pella recorded one Grand Slam win and forced Lopez in the 5th set.He won a set against the Top 50 Mayer in Buenos Aires easily. Guido is in a better place here and I think Gimeno will finally get knocked out after all the shocking outcomes of his previous matches. Pella should cover this handicap easily. Details

With his performances in the last two matches Guido clearly showed that he can achieve a lot. After he limited Sampero-Montana at only three games in the first match, Melzer was a real test for him. The Argentinian routinely finished the first set, and then partially due to Austrian's better performance, forced to play the deciding third set. But in those moments Andreozzi showed his arsenal of strokes, and in little over 10 minutes had 4-0 lead and there was no chance of comeback for Melzer who is playing great tennis this season. I don't think Guido will miss the chance here to advance to the semi-final. Maxime is a futures level player, he only earned nine challenger wins in his career. He hadn't showed anything which would make me think that he can complicate things for the Argentinian here. In the match against Quiroz, he lost his serve four times, with 73% of first serve, which is significant. The question is if the French will be able to repeat such precision, but it is clear that he cannot count on easy points not even in such situations, since his serve is not his strong suit. Quiroz limited him to miserable 24% of second serve points (4/17), so it is expected that an aggressive player like Andreozzi will have a lot of chances on return. With a solid performance, the Argentinian will win this easily, and I cannot see a scenario in which Chazal can complicate this and eventually take a set into tiebreak. In the first two matches, Chazal lost seven service games, and he will have a lot of problems today against a great return player like Andreozzi. In accordance with that, I am quite confident about the bet on under of points. Details

In my opinion, there's no dilemma that Philipp will win this, and all that's left to see is how convincing the German will be. Considering Stakhovsky was limited to only 4 games, Damir definitely won't fare any better here. The Ukrainian is a much better indoor player, and even though he didn't have a good serving day, he was nowhere near making the match suspenseful. Kohlschreiber stormed through the match like a speed train, and solved it faster than anyone hoped. But the body language was especially significant. He was visibly thrilled after every good move, he cheered himself on, and with his usually elegant tennis earned a routine win. Dzumhur used every problems Vesely is currently struggling with. The Czech decided to fire his coach, he came to this tournament with bad rhythm so everything came together for Damir after the series of injuries his rival suffered at the Australian Open. It seems that he is out of mitigating advantages and that Philipp wlll bring him back to reality today, and I cannot see a tiebreak in this match. I expect the German to dominate and win convincingly, and Dzumhur, of course, won't be able to complicate the match. Details

I think the Italian's Chennai quarter-finals influenced the odds for this match. It's true that Fabiano won six times this season, but we have to point out that he failed at the main test, the second qualification round of Australian Open. He didn't do too well in Manilla either. At the same time, not one of the wins he achieved were indoor conditions, and those are the Italian's least favorite.
So far, Laslo has two defeats. In Melbourne qualifications he played well despite the defeat. He managed to take away the serve twice to Brands (quality-wise among Top 100), and he's a very good server. Today he will have a lot more chances on the return since Fabbiano is less dangerous in that segment, and Laslo has better scores indoors.
Laslo has the aggressiveness needed to solve this match, and he demonstrated a lot more indoors last season than the Italian did in his whole career. I think this is a match of equals, and I would give the Serbian tennis player a chance to win. Still, in order to be on the safe side, I would take the game handicap since I think Djere will have a number of chances to take away the rival's serve, and that should decide this match, next to Djere's aggressiveness. Details

I definitely think the bookmakers failed to recognize the importance of elevation here, which is why I think the odds are off. I think Bourgue will put up a much better fight than the offs suggest. Estrella is ATP level, which I'm not trying to deny, but he is far from someone who will win his service games easily. Also, her serve was never great. He would lose service games even against players who are not as good as the Frenchman. He usually makes up for that against the opponents's serve but it seems like the margin is at least one game lower than expected, maybe even two.
Estella went over it in both of his matches here and played over 20 games in 8 out his last 10 wins on clay court. He once played exactly 20 and once got limited to under that number. He is currently on a 7-game winning run in which he needed at least 21 game, I don't see what's different now, especially given the surface speed here. Estrella is the favorite here and that is why the margin is set like this. Bourgue has seven overs at this margin in the last 10 matches he lost. I don't think he will just give up here. He has power that could cause Estrella problems. This margin is reachable even with an extra break for Estrella in each set. The chance for at least one tie break is there as well. Details

Dzumhur lost the first set 6:1 against Edmund. He would have almost certainly lost the match had the Brit not suffered bad cramps that prevented him from running. He stayed on the court and tried to serve well but that was it. Dzumhur is now to face a Top 20 player who will definitely win this. I don't think Dzumhur will go over this margin since it's expected for Goffin to settle this in straight sets. Dzumhur will most likely get a miserable number of games in at least one set. Goffin will try and finish this as soon as possible. Damir often talks about his footwork as the greatest strong suit but his opponent's footwork is twice as good, while his game is overall much better as well. I think this will be a one-sided win and I don't expect Damir to go over this game margin. Details

Cecchinato got limited to only 4 games in Sydney a week ago and I don't see what could have changed since. He's challenger level and will never be good on this surface. He's got very bad experienced in these conditions both this and last season. Mahut will get a bunch of easy points after serve here, while Marco will have to struggle to get each points. I expect for Mahut to get this over with in three easy sets, which will make it tough for the Italian to get the games over here. Each of his serves will be threatened by Mahut. Only a bad break point efficiency can rin this. I think Cechinato can be happy with getting a double-digit number of games here. Details

When you're playing Raonic it's clear you won't get much chance on return. This time won't be any different but I'm pretty sure Milos will struggle more here than in Brisbane. Pouille did a good finish to the last season and almost won a challenger title home. He played Brisbane QFs and the defeat to Milos, who went on to win the title, was no surprise. Raonić did great in Brisbane from start to finish and I'm pretty sure he cannot keep that up for long, especially when ti comes to return. Lucas has a pretty good serve and most importantly, a lot of confidence at the moment. An ATP QFs at the start and a Top 20 wins (Goffin) definitely gave him a boost of confidence. I would not be surprised if Puille got a set here. Even if he loses in straight sets, I think the chance for this over is pretty good. This will be one of the typical matches for Milos with at least one tie-break. This margin is completely reachable for the Frenchman in that case. Details

I don't want to sound like I'm underestimating Damir too much, but it seems that this Edmund is one class above him. First of all, I have to point out how Kyle in the finish of the last and at the start of the current season, showed off what kind of an arsenal he has at his disposal. At the start of the season he reached the ATP Doha quarter-finals. Then in two out of four wins he covered this handicap, and of course we're talking about matches on two won sets. Here we have a different situation, and considering that Damir can't praise with a very good starting hit, I believe Kyle will get numerous chances on the return, and he seems like he's going to reach the second round a lot easier than it's expected. Edmund and Kooyong did a routine exhibition again covering today's handicap in two sets against Jasika. He has confidence, he looks great and comparing the results of these two players, the Brit is way ahead. I don't see how the lack of experience is going to mess things up, Damir doesn't have the weapons to stand up to him. The serve and the aggressiveness, and in the end strength, should be Edmund's huge advantage, and I believe he's more than able to cover this handicap without a lot of trouble. Details

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