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A typical bet for the season ending, you can get it just by looking at the league table. Arouca need points to secure staying in the league, and a win can help them with that (if Gil also lose to Porto). Boavista made a sensational comeback, celebrated it, and can now play calmly, but without the two standard players and a few other changes i nthe lineup, they're coming to their next to last away match this season. Even if this match was equally important to both teams, Boavista would be inferior here, as they were this entire season when it comes to away matches. They're the worst team of the league with 1-4-10 ratio (7:29). So, even with these high odds, their ratio makes this bet acceptable. I believe Petit's warriors will come back to the championship fully after the celebration, and die with the intensity they used in the last nine months, because now they fulfilled their goal. Arouca aren't a team you can praise with all your might, but they showed they know how to win matches like these, and especially when they're in the deep. They finished the last season (their first) by connecting three home wins, and I believe Pedro Emanuel will get the win this time, as well. With that, they'll stay in the league. Arouca are better individually, and Boavista used up their energy and are also coming without their best player, the back midfielder Tengarrinha. Anyway, the absences and the form aren't that important right now because these matches are almost always won by the team who want the points more, and that's definitely Arouca in this case. Details

I went with this tip recently when these teams met in the Cup and it was not successful. Result-wise it wasn't really close as it finished at 1-0 but given the attempts created, there are regrets, especially for Nacional, who had a huge number of attempts. If they do that again today, there should be no problems. Everything I said back then goes for this game too because Nacional are in the same kind of form, while Sporting's defense still doesn't seem good. Nacional played all Top 4 teams in the last 15 games and scored against each except in the Cup second leg. This game is not as important for Sporting and I expect them to be under no pressure and if teams from the bottom part of the table can score against them, why wouldn't Nacional do the same. Defense is the biggest problem at Sporting because they conceded as many goals as Benfica and Porto combined. The previous games are no exception. Sporting have been conceding goals for the last 5 rounds, while Nacional scored in the last 8 away games. Defensive midfielders are out on both teams, which is good for this bet as well. The home team will probably have an offensive-oriented formation with two strikers, two wingers and no defensive midfielders. We are to expect an open game and goals today. Details

A match between teams only three points apart, where the motive is on the home team's side, the bookmakers offer an even, which doesn't really follow what both did at home and away. Both teams proved to be home teams, and Boavista have artificial turf there, the only one in Primeira, and they got seven wins there, including three against teams much better than Maritimo. You could say Boavista won everything they had to at home, and the defeat against Estoril is only a blunder looking at it from this point of view, because Estoril didn't have a crisis then yet, and were a favorite. As good as Boavista are at home, Maritimo are bad in away duels. They got better in those in 2015, but the fact remains that they only beat Gilo and Penafiel since the end of 2013, in 22 away championship games they played. And those two will likely be eliminated from the first league. They can't go up nor down on the league table, so all they have left to do is get ready for the League cup final. Also, they're going to play without five players, three of which are starters. The defensive players Ruben Ferreira and Danilo Pereira's absences are especially important. Petit showed he can get his team to play their best, and considering everything, they're closer to winning than the odds would suggest. Besides confirming their stay in the league, they'll also be motivated by the first match of the season that ended 0-4, when three of their players got sent off. Worst case scenario, the stake should be void. Details

This is a match smelling of an over, and the option in which Nacional will score is far better paid that the regular over which is around 1.80. Although Nacional didn't win in five matches in a row, it's once more worth mentioning that in the second part of the season they're playing a lot better which is seen in the offensive effect because behind them they have 11 matches in which they've scored, and among those 11 were four top Portuguese teams. After the home 2-2 against Sporting and 1-1 against Porto, they scored against Benfica on Luz which no one managed to do in the championship since September, and they will have to score at least once tonight in case they want to reach the finals, because they have no room for calculations. That space will be additionally narrowed down because their defense is their weak spot and by conceded away goals they are the worst in the league. Sporting scored a goal in all home championship matches and Portugal Cup matches, they're complete and fully motivated with a couple of good matches behind them. They bettered their defense through the season and completed it after selling last season's stoppers. In the last two matches on Luz Guimares scored against them (4-1), as well as the bottom-table Penafiel (3-2), while in Nacional's last six matches this bet only didn't stand against Porto. This bet, as I already said, is paid too well to be missed. Details

A defeat in the League Cup is not the best opening of this month that will probably decide Porto's season. They will have two matches with Bayern and the derby match with Benfica coming up (could settle the title race). Porto are normally very good at bouncing back following defeats, which is another reason to believe in them. They are 9-0-0 here since mid-December, having conceded only 2 goals, both in League Cup in which the coach used reshuffled lineups. Estoril are bringing an below average season to an end. They have not won the last 8 rounds, despite meeting two bottom tables teams home. Many players from previous seasons are no longer at Estroil, which resulted in this bad season. They never get defense-oriented and attempt to break down opponent's game and won't do it today either. They will drown in their own pace if they open too fiercely and they really don't have a good shot at keeping Porto, who are on an 9-game home winning run. Estoril didn't concede only once away this season, this bet was successful in their away games with Benfica and Sporting and should go tonight as well. Especially since Porto didn't have and don't have a CL game coming up next. What they have is definitely motivation. Details

Benfica are still huge three points ahead of Porto and to stay up need to win today to also make up for the Rio Ave defeat last round. I wanted to go with a sure win for Benfica but there is material for a tip here because Benfica do brilliantly home, sending off opponents with three or more goals. The goal difference in all of their 12 wins in 2015 was at least two goals. The goal difference in the 7 home games is 24-0. They don't have Luisao but Gaitan's comeback is much more important for this kind of a game anyway. Salvio and Jonas are in brilliant form (Jonas has 5 goals in the last 5 rounds). Nacional have good results in 2015, but Benfica are on a completely other level. They keep on conceding too many goals away despite doing well each next round. They conceded league high 28 goals in away games. Three players that missed the last round game with Porto are back but Nacional know how tough it will be today. They always lose here and will lose again, especially because they play the key game of the season next week. The -1.75 option is more suitable for the odds at 1.70+ than 1-5, which we can't miss out on. Details

Vincent Aboubakar didn't play much next to Jackson Martinez this season, as expected, but that's also good for the odds we're having because it's his time to shine now. Even though his name isn't as "big" as the Porto's first center forwards', his time will come when the Columbian leaves in the summer transfer window. He took real good use of the time he got in this season, especially in the last two minutes when he was a starter, and played for almost the entire 90 minutes, which he should be doing tonight. Looking at the national team, he needs 91 minutes to score per game this season, and we can see he's a complete player by the places he uses to score, with both legs, his head, and even outside the penalty box.
Another thing going for this bet is Nacional's defense, they didn't concede a goal in only two out of the last 19 matches, and considering Porto's form and three important absences in the home team, Porto should stay in the fight with Benfica after this match, so this bet has a pretty good value. Details

Although it was unimaginable to tip on Boavista at the beginning of the season, times change, and with it the club quality. Academica can't find their game throughout the entire season and they only have one championship win, which was in an away match against Arouca. Such scores mirror bad games, and today they're in a match in which they have to attack, and they don't know how to do that. They are also missing some players, although I don't think the situation would've been better with them. Boavista built their team as time went on and it seems Petit succeeded in that because their chances of survival are a lot better. Now they're stronger than they were at the beginning of the championship, and they also brought some new players who Petit already integrated into the team. They don't have good scores in away matches, but they also never lost to clubs who are weaker than them. Boavista beat them all at home, but they were only as Setubal's in an away match, and they were in a similar situation as are Academica now. Boavista were victorious at the time, and I believe they won't lose today either, which is going to be nicely repaid since the odds had to be set round an egal which I believe will be reached by the start of the match. Details

The odds at 1.8+ for handicap in a game where the favorite are at 1.25 don't seem valuable, regardless of teams characteristics. But when it Porto against a team that was promoted this season, we need to take it. Porto finished all of their last 9 league wins with a handicap, scoring more than 3 goals in 8 of them. That means we can go with some other, better payed option here. Moreirense are in decline, miss five key players - the entire midfield, the most important center back, and a right back. Porto are complete, productive, and need only their normal performance for another successful win. Details

Other than the advantage of the home pitch, Pacos have nothing else going for them in this game. The home pitch didn't help them much against Benfica in the past since the visitors won the last 9 games here and 19 out of the last 20 head-to-head games. The only draw the played was the Cup second leg game after Benfica won the first one convincingly. In each of those 19 wins, Benfica scored at least 2 goals because Pacos often score as well. Regarless of whether Benfica will actually need two goals to win today, that option seems to be the best one at this game even though you can go with -1 and the slightly more risky win at the visitors + 2.5 over (Marathon, 2.34). Pacos have conceded at least one goal in each of their championship game since September, while Benfica scored in each. Pacos have been conceding more goals lately, while Benfica started scoring more and according to the stats, Pacos always conceded while Befica always scored as many goals as necessary for this bet in the championship. If Benfica can beat Porto 2-0, Maritimo 4-0 and more defense-oriented teams like Moreirense and Academica, Pacos' poor defense won't be able to stop them. Pacos can't count on defender Rafael, while Benfica's top scorer Talisco is back after missing the League Cup game with a suspension. Details

Porto couldn't have hoped for a better opponent for the end of the first part of the season. The dragons are a well-oiled machine that is undefeated home in all competitions and are set to face the feeble Penafil today. Porto beat Setubal 4-0, Arouca 5-0, Academica 3-0. Those are the top Portuguese teams and I expect a new win for Porto today. Porto have scored 3 or less goal only against Benfica in the last 6 rounds and should be able to keep this going against a team that have been defeat to bottom table Gil Vicente twice in the last months. Penafil have the worst defense in the league - conceded 32 goals in 16 rounds and always concede a lot against the top teams. Gil recorded their first league win as they met Penafiel last round. Third choice goal keeper will be trying to stop Porto's shots today, Penafiel are two defenders short as well. The worst defense in the league doesn't seem to be capable of stopping top offense. I don't see Porto under three goals today. The alternative is visitors to score > 2.5 at 2.10 (Bwin) 4/10. Details

Where else can you find an over bet in Portugal than with teams whose matches see most goals, and Maritimo and Estoril are the only in Portugal to average above 3.00. Apart from statistics, this pick is also based on the game of both teams and the fact their offense is stronger than defense. The fact they're unhappy with their ranking helps too, as it will push them to look for a win since both planned to fight for Europe, not stagnate in the lower part of the ranking ladder. Estoril only managed to avoid conceding a goal in their past round game, while they scored in all 12 matches so far. Maritimo have no problem scoring either, at least not to Madeira, where they scored 13 times in five matches, and they also have one of the best scorers in the league this season. Estoril played in Greece on Thursday, and after both of their Euroean away matches they played championship matches with at least four goals. I expect at least three today, especially since they're missing two defenders, one of them a standard starter. Both previous matches at Madeira, since Estoril came back to the first league, ended with both scoring and 3+, so they should keep the tradition, but I'll take the regular over since both scoring 3+ pays only slightly better. Details

Guimarães got a point on the away game against Braga, but also five players who will today be out either because of the cards or the injuries. They're still the third, but I don't see them staying there in the second part of the season, or any place leading to Europe because we can expect them to start falling today, and I'd say that had already started because the last two wins were really tough. Today, besides the decent opponent, they also have to cover for the big number of absences, and the coach Rui Vitori, the miracle maker, won't be helped with the announced sales of the players in January. I'd take Rio Ave here even without the absences in the home team, even though their effect isn't as good as in the previous seasons, when they got more points away than at home, but they're not that bad either, so I can't hold against them the defeat against three out of four strongest teams in the League. Guimarães isn't one of those despite their high placement. Compared to the game against Aalborg, two center backs will be back, they don't have the lineup problems like the home team do. Home team won't be able to count on players who scored over half of their goals. To keep it short, Guimarães aren't better than Rio Ave even when they're complete, and today, they miss two important players from each line, and the goalie position isn't really stable, either. So, Rio Ave have to get point(s) here. Details

Academica aren't able to record a win recently, or a goal. They scored one in more than 620 minutes. Paulo Sergio never neat Porto in his carrier, with the current situation suggesting he probably won't be in charge much longer. The team is much weaker than last season, while Porto on the other hand, look well given the numerous changes made on the team during the summer. They are constantly getting better. They are among the best defenses and the most efficient offenses in the Champions League, which is another reason to believe they'll cover this handicap. Academica's attack is inefficient and Porto need one good half to win by two goals. The more cautious among you can go with Marathon's -1.25 at 1.74. Details

Pacos were the greatest hit in the league two seasons ago, ending in spot three and losing only to Porto and Benfica. Paulo Fonseca was given the chance to take over at Porto, ending Pacos' period of success. They have been in trouble since the start of the last season, but Fonseca was sacked from Porto to take over at Pacos again last summer. And again, Pacos are invincible - they have not lost in 40 rounds, expect to Porto and Benfica. It seems the streak will go on since Estoril are in a bad place right now. Their defense is barely coping and conceding two goals per game this season. The weather caused some problems last week in the European game and now face the opponent whose attacking line should be able to keep Estoril's average in goal conceded up, especially if Kieszek gets to be on the goal again. A few tips are offered at this game and I opted for over >1.25 at home team which means that the bet will be void in case they score only one goal. 3.5 are scored on average in Estoril's games and I don't think this one will bring the average down significantly. Details

Porto're having the width they didn't have for a long time, and things are finally coming to their place, confirmed with the secured position for the CL after the fourth round already. Currently, they're having a four consecutive wins with 11 goals scored. In the last round, they paid back the Nacional for what they owed them last year, and now it's Estoril's turn. They played an away game in Moscow on Thursday, so some of the players are obviously tired. Couceiro complained about fatigue after European games this season already, and even if they had a week to get ready for this game, I don't think a defense that concedes two goals per game could hold the strongest team of the championship, one that's rising in the form, and has everything on their side for this game. Benfica scored two in the first eight minutes here, Rio Ave five, and recently Belenenses two, and Porto's offense is more powerful than all those. I don't see how the defense that didn't concede a goal only once in the 14 games of this season can stop Porto. The odds for the win fell from about 1.65 to 1.45, but the number of the guests' goal is still on, and I take it without a doubt. Details

The comebacker to the first league looks good at the beginning of the season, but not so much that we'd have x2 1.72 against a twice efficient and better placed opponent, in a situation where both could do with a tie.
Moreirense's closed off game works for away games, that's where they won more points than at home, where they had only one win so far. Before that, they hosted Penafiel, next to last in the league, and couldn't defeat them. Belenenses proved themselves against Boavista on Monday. They have more points won in away games than Moreirense as a home team, and since Lito Vidigal came, away games aren't a problem. Up until his arrival, they didn't score a goal in away games for months, and when he started playing, right in the first game, they resisted Porto. Since then, they've only been defeated on one out of six away games in the league, including against Sporting (1-1). Moreirense don't have players of Miguel Rosa or Deyverson's caliber, the latter one himself scored as much as Moreirense did. They rely on the collective more, and the feistiness itself won't be enough to crack any better opponents. I expected odds to be about a tie, so taking these 1.72 +0.5 is okay, rather than +0.25 option. Details

Braga don't oscillate in the 90 minutes like they did last year, but there are big differences in their away and home games. They still lose away games, and keep up with Europe thanks to home games where they win. THey have to keep the series positive against the last team of the league. Last summer, they invested a lot so the expectations are higher than what they showed. They scored 10 in four games at home, and conceded only two goals. Three opponents were stronger than Gil, one as good as Gil, and if Benfica couldn't stand up to them, Gil Vicente won't. In games like these, the trap is usually in underestimating the opponent, but Conceição isn't a coach who'll allow something like that. Gil aren't playing well, and because of a weak roster, they don't have room for improvement. The atmosphere isn't good, the club president threatened the players, mentioned the winter transfer window, and also suspended the captain Peixoto. They came back defeated from the last two away games, against the first-league teams where the defense conceded five goals, and confirmed their status of being the worst in the league. Even the last three seasons, since they came back to Primeira, they didn't come back from Braga with under 3 goals conceded, and considering Braga's home games, Barcelosa club is expected to continue its agony. Most of the game will be played on their half of the field, and their weak defense won't be able to stop the home team's offenses, so the home team should get a win with more than one goal difference. Details

Belenenses' local players had enough time last season to adjust to the top league, while Boavista struggle with that very problem now. The home team made the right move deciding to keep the coach who saved him from relegation last season on. They didn't change the team and the more time they spent toghether is more than visible in their results. Deyverson, top scorer Rosa and a few other players are interesting to watch playing.
Boavista are in position 16 after 9 rounds and don't seem capable of doing better. The away games are huge problem for the team (goal difference 0-10). Only few of their players are good enough to play in any other club and on top of that, have to without a few first team players today. Their greatest advantage is the artificial turf they play on home and without that, they are usually left with no chance away. In fact, I don't think the turf would be of much help today, especially after the last game with Pacos, which they did horribly. The odds at Belenenses are exactly the same as the were at Pacos in that game. If the home team win, they will have the same number of points as Pacos again.
1.80 are good odds at a club that can get in the 4th spot if they win, against one of the prime candidates for relegation. The only thing visitors are better at is fierceness, but that often results in their players being sent off. The home team are better in every other aspect of the game and a goal should be enough for the win here. Details

Although this season they planned to be in the upper half of the chart, no one expected such a good season for Guimaraes. However, if we look at their opponents to far, only the draw with Porto (with the help of the judge) is the result worthy of the position they're currently holding because all of the other five wins they achieved were against the clubs who belong into the lower half. Because of the lack of finances they were forced to youthen up their team which, combined with a couple of absences today, should be felt the most in the inexperienced defense for which I believe won't be able to withstand Sporting's attacks who have in the last three away matches, two of which were against Porto and Schalke, scored 10 times, and none less efficient were they against Maritimo who scored four goals to Guimaraes. Sporting are currently in the mood for scoring, but regarding them we have a very similar situation as was the case last season. No matter the results, in betting houses they're still not quoting like Porto or Benfica, not even in periods when they're showing better football and/or scores. Such was the case for most of the part last season, and it seems the case will be the same this one as well, although the bookmakers reacted on the win and lowered the bar unlike at the beginning of the week. Sporting didn't lose here for six seasons and I believe that will remain the same after this away game as well which should be in their case at least one goal more efficient than a couple of matches before, and since their defense is not the most secure one, the best option seems like the team over. Details