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In the last two games, the Dutch have significantly lowered their huge average from group stage (22.67) but there's a logical explanation. Their game against Mexico was very slow for 60 minutes and no team crossed the center with more than 2-3 centers and when they conceded a goal, they just kept attacking until the end; and they kept this attacking tempo for the entire 120 minutes against Costa Rica. Argentina are a different story, they have to stop Messi, Aguero and the rest and I see no way to do that besides fouls. I've previously mentioned the lack of experience of their defense and now they lost their midfield destroyer De Jong and I think this has to become apparent. The referee for the game is harsh Cakir who called 31 and 29 fouls in his last two games. Details

Hewitt's performance in the first round was not goo at all and one gets the impression that Harrison gave the second round away. However, I wouldn't have taken this bet had I not noticed the Australian's problem with his shoulder that made him do 10 double faults and ask for medical assistance. He's simply not himself and I see Pavić putting up a strong resistance as he's definitely in the best form of his career. He did great on grass here and he can get a good result. However, due to Hewitt's enormous fighting spirit and Pavić's inexperience I decided to go for the handicap instead of a win for Pavić, which wouldn't come as a surprise. Details

Caen have chosen the most difficult test for their first one. Any kind of a positive result against Rennes would be an encouragement for the newly-promoted team and they will probably focus on defense. Considering how they lost their most important forwards during the transfer period (Fajr, Autret, Kodjia, Koita), I don't expect them to be dangerous. Most of them have been adequately replaced but new players will need time to adapt.
The situation is the same with black-and-reds who have already had a test game (2-1 against newly promoted Luzenac) in which they were far from excellent. They lost their crucial winger Alessandrini and several other attacking players, while their main striker Toivonen is still weighing his offers and is not competing for a place in the squad. Injuries have forced their coach to use some reserve player and even their U-21 forward N'Gand has been ruled out.
Both teams are in early stages of preparations and they will feature young forwards. Their H2H's don't have too many goals anyway - only 1 in last 5 went over 2.5. Details

Congo and Kazakhstan played in the last WC but in group stages, the end result was 27-27 but Kazakhstan had 5-goal lead at half time (15-10) and they kept it until the 49th minute when Congo scored 9 goals in ten minutes, which is surreal. Kazakhstan did them a favor then as they had only 8 players and had no energy left in the final stages of the game and that could happen to Congo today. They are without their dynamic trio Mvita, Mumbala and Kela (all three played in last WC) and it proved to be a crucial blow for the whole team. Kazakhstand have brought twice as many players here, some of whom are stronger than those on last WC, and they shouldn't struggle in final stages. Kazakhstan's motivation is undoubted as they don't want to end as the last-placed team while Congo seem more worried about the state in their country than on the court. Tunis beat them by +7 even after resting a few players, and some Congolese players fought with each other on the court and didn't want to play. Mpoua even gave up in the second half and let his younger colleague lead the team. Congo's problems are apparent Kazakhstan are stronger than before and I think they have a good chance to get back home with at least one win. Details

After his debut ATP win in Wimbledon, Luke Saville has shown that was no coincidence and we might have a rising star here. After all, his Wimbledon title in junior competition a few years ago showed that and it's clear grass is his favorite surface. He had a walk in the park against Polanski, confirming his good form. I see Mahut having a tough day against him, especially as Mahut hasn't showed much, particularly on his return as he only got 1 break against Arguello (1st match on grass). His serve worked great and my choice is an over that has very good odds. Details

What Poland showed against Bulgaria in the opening game wasn't run'g'gun but run'g'gun squared. Small Grzelinski has a very finely tuned hand and is faster than the wind. And believe me, the speed of Polish attacks wasn't defined by Bulgaria who like up tempo games. The Poles played fast every chance they had because they struggled with their flow of the ball and creating a shot in a 5-on-5 game. How fast was it? They had 70 field goal attempts, 34 free throws (equivalent of 17 attacks) and 11 turnovers, which gives us 98 attacks in 40 minutes. Israel have shown they have enough attacking capacity to go over 70 points (in 3 out of 5 friendlies, 69 against Turkey) and their squad suggest they should prefer faster basketball. They have only one real center in Zalmanson and they won't put too many balls in the paint. Their PG is Sharon, a man with good technique, looking for pick, penetrating the block and attacking the basket. A good enough argument for an over for me. Details

Yesterday, the Germans made good use of Spain's poor day, underestimation, stage fright...whatever you want to call it. I think that's the only reason why the margin for today is set like this (Marathon has 17.5!!!). This German team doesn't have too much attacking talent, they're primarily a hard-working team and they cannot crush anyone. Looking at their results during preparations, they covered this spread against weak teams like Great Britain and USA, but all their games ended with low totals of points. I have no doubt that will be the case today and that's one of the reasons for this bet. If the game stays about 130-points, there's not much chance Germany will win by 11 or more points. Sweden weren't brilliant in prep games but I saw at the start of this tournament that the coaches didn't use all they have in the friendlies so those games aren't too relevant. Scandinavians have a tall team so the Germans won't be able to torture them in the paint and Menz's team has a very below par perimeter shot. Another important factor is that Germany have just had a difficult game against Spain while Sweden are well rested. Details

Russia came to Croatia as the biggest candidate to take the gold and their results so far confirm that. Even though they haven't always pleased their coach, the fact is that only Romania lost by less than 9 goals and that says enough. After that game, Kirilenko gave his team a lesson although they still won by 34-31. But 'just winning' is not enough for this team, Kirilenko wants perfection and the responded by beating Sweden by 13 goals. As much as Sweden have not lived up to the expectations, one gets the impression that Russia could have won by an even higher margin and that's something their opponents should fear. Netherlands have shown against Denmark and Germany that they struggle against quality teams and they tend to lose energy in the last moments of the game. Russia have 16 quality player and Kirilenko can rotate however he pleases without losing the rhythm of the game and 5-10 minutes of weaker performance will definitely be costly for the Netherlands and the Russians will use that to increase the lead. I expect Russia to start the game strong and try to settle the game in the first half, just like against Sweden. Netherlands lost against Denmark by 9 goals even though their keeper Zimmermann made many great saves. I expect Russia to win this by a similar margin and if the keepers play a good game, this could go over +10. Details

Uruguay had several low-scoring games in last WC but once they reached the matches to decide the individual spots, they played a 60-goal game against defensively minded Portugal and a 58-goal match against slow Congo. Their first playoff match here saw 52 goals but against Argentina and in a very fierce battle. However, despite the fiery combat to dominate their continental rivals, margin was almost broken anyway. Their opponents now are Japan, a team with a deep 3-3 defense, much like Uruguay. Whatever teams to do adapt, the fact is that a potential save will mean a counter, as Uruguay have shown two years ago when they played a 83-goal match with Korea (46-37 defeat). Since this is the final of the President's Cup, I expect both teams to do their best and not slow things down (which seems impossible with their system anyway) and 60-something goals should come as no surprise in that case. We should not forget that Uruguay's keeper sustained a neck injury in the last game and her form (if she even plays) should be doubtful at best. Details

We went for an under for Italy yesterday, due to their defense and poor Czech offense and now we'll go for an over because of offensive Turks that had 30% field goal yesterday, missed 11 free throws and had 20 turnovers. The Italians look for speed, rhythm and win the balls through pressure, so I think they'll score more against Turkey than Croatia did yesterday. On the other hand, we have Turkey who have 3-4 going for offensive rebounds, which means they risk a lot by leaving a lot of space for the opponents to go for a potential transition if they don't get the rebound and that's where the Italians are dangerous. The Turks say that their coach will look for transition and speed, the players say they like open basketball and the results of prep games definitely speak in favor of this bet. Details

Lindell won the first match in his career yesterday. Just what a surprise that was is reflected in the fact that the Swede hasn't won at the challenger in the past two seasons. Cuevas handled Chardy, losing 4 games in the process. He's on the verge of getting back to Top 100 and he's been dominant at the challenger level this season. Looking at his 19-4 at the challenger level, one can see that he beat much stronger players than the Swede, who belongs to the futures. We have a special situation here as Cuevas is ATP level material but had to use challengers to regain his form and ranking. On the other hand, Lindell is a futures player without success at the challenger level in recent season but he reached Round 2 of an ATP tournament. A huge difference in quality that the Uruguayan player should show today. Details

Denmark have significantly improved their performance in recent games and they have a right to hope to get the gold and France is unable to cope with this team. One could see just how limited the French team is against Hungary when they were left completely outplayed in offense. I expect Denmark to approach this very seriously as this is a crucial game for them in which they have no margin for error. One could see a change in Eriksen's attitude in the last game as he was pumped up and eager to win the game. Denmark are strong enough to crush any team once they get into the rhythm and that could happen to France today. They're a team that has won 5 out of 6 games here but have had a very solid draw, used Portugal's poor performance and Sweden's poor overall form. They lost their first serious match and this Denmark is even stronger than Hungary. Details

The Czechs stayed under this margin yesterday on account of high Italian pressure all over the court and their poor offensive line. Montenegro might try to put them under pressure once again but I'm not sure they can play it so well as Sacripanti's team. Montenegro's coach said he'll focus on defense and his team from the Montenegrin league has a questionable quality, especially without Nikola Ivanović, even though they seemed to be doing above expectations in preparations. Pavićević said himself said they were pleasant surprise but that they didn't play defense he has in store for today. The Czechs rely on their two tall players a lot, many things depend on them and this decreases the tempo of the game. The margin is pretty high for such an important game and this is worth taking. Details