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I went for the under in the game between Switzerland and Macedonia and missed it by 15 goals, but if they played the same game today I would have gone for it again. It was impossible to predict that coach Suter would rest the players and directly influence the course of the game. Things should get back to normal today and this Switzerland is not a 25-goal team, as we saw in four games before Macedonia as the only team against whom they scored over 23 was Estonia (26). They relied on defense and good keepers and these keepers got 15% against Macedonia while defense was non-existent. Hungary are a very tough team but their offense is not too good. If we disregard 36 goals against Israel, they scored 27 against Slovakia, 24 against Belarus, 21 against Slovenia and 19 against Sweden. It's logical to expect the defense to be the most important aspect and the Swiss will be very motivated despite this being a playoff match, as a better position would give the Swiss a slightly easier draw for WC next year. Only the finalists will get a direct spot and then it's not irrelevant if you're 9th or the 12th. Details

Last year, these teams played a 52-goal game in their battle for the WC bronze and that's probably the basis for this margin. But there has been one crucial change since - the Germans have changed their coach. Schwarzer pushed a faster game last year and the Germans were very strong in the transition, but things seem much different with Baur. A bigger emphasis has been put on defense and they don't rush at all costs. That's how they played a 53-goal game against offensively-minded Slovenia (last year they played a 60-goal game at the WC) and Spain is a completely different team. Suffice to say their games against Serbia and Denmark saw 43 and 40 goals, respectively, while their match against Baur's team at the Airport Trophy ended with the score of 24-22 - well below today's margin, and the stakes are much higher today. We don't expect this to be a beautiful game but a fierce battle for the finals. Details

Turkey has been weakened, they have had very short preparations and very few friendly before this Grand Prix. I don't usually trust Barbolini, who's in charge of Turkey, and I trust him even less today. Without their first-choice setter and opposite, Turkey will struggle against Japan. I will use a modest stake as I fear Japan might make a few compromises in their squad. If they use their best squad, there should be no problems. Last season in Ankara, Japan won by 3-1. The Turks had Demir and Aydemir and Japan had the identical squad. Japan have played a lot of games in the preparations and that's another huge advantage for them. Details

The margin is set lower as expected after Belarus and Hungary's game was limited to 49 goals. That game was horrible to watch, it was 60 minutes of Hungary not being able to score a single fast-break goal, despite Belarus being famous for conceding easily like that. It wasn't like they couldn't have scored - coach's task was simply to practice attacks against zone defense. I don't believe Norway will have a task like that today. I think this is the perfect match for them to score some goals for the stats since they have good-quality players for counter-attacks, like Pedersen on the wing. On the other hand, Belarus have a pretty fast pace, which is expected today, especially because they had a day off yesterday. They also don't have a goal keeper at a high level, which should be enough to go over the modest 50 goals. Of course, we can't forget that the back players at Belarus managed to destroy Norway at the last EC, in a match with over 70 goals scored. Details

Even though Serbia have had a great tournament so far and Lithuania have barely reached the quarterfinals, I believe we are facing a very tight match. Lithuania will use Sabonis to dominate the paint as Serbia's only real center has an injury problem and that will give Lithuania many open shots, which is the best part of their game. If Lithuania have a good shooting performance, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them get a good result. Details

Americans seem to be better than Russia at this moment. I will take their head-to-head game from the Montreux Masters late May into consideration for this prediction. The US beat Russia 3-1 in an early stage of that competition. What has changed since? United States now have setter Glass, first choice opposite Murphy, and the great blocker Akinradewo. Those three make the team better by some 20-30%, and in addition to that, they will be better in the libero position too, since Hagglund, who played that position in Switzerland, isn't as good as Banwarth and Davis. Four wins they recorded in the friendly matches with Brazil suggest the form is high. History is also on the American side - they have been beating Russia as a rule lately. The European champions did the Jelcinj Cup (not a brilliant performance), and won the second place in the end. They lost an important blocker Shlyakovaya, and that handicap is even more significant if we know Morozova is still to join the team. That means Podskalnaya and Zaryazhko will be in the block today, and that position is even weaker at Russia than it was in Switzerland. Desite being on the team, I don't expect Obmochaeva in the starting line up, since she just started preparing. Even if she makes it in the line up, I don't expect she'll be at her usual level. I think Malykh will play the opposite, as she did against the US late May. Koshaleva should do Russia some good as a receiver, but since since Scherban, who did brilliantly in Switzerland, has injured, I don't expect much from the Russians in that respect. So, we have the US, who are clearly doing very well (better by 20-30%). Russia are maybe 10% better compared to the May match. The Americans are bursting with confidence after the 4 wins against Brazil, which leads me to believe they're currently in better form than Russia. Marichev is a coach who is focused on the main event of the season - the World Championship, as he did last season when Russia did an average Grand Prix, and then did brilliantly in the EC. The Americans should win here. Details

Even though these two teams have played a tight game (62-60) during the preparations, I don't see this one as a close game. Italy's only strength is their PG Mussini, while the Greeks are firing from all cylinders. From their point guard Stamatis, who will cause a lot of problems fro Mussini, to Charalampopoulos, who is dominating the shooting positions. The key to this game lies in the paint where the Greeks are the better team and I believe that will decide this game. Italy's great games aside, I don't see them being close to Greece. Details

Even though the English have the most optimistic coach on the bench, that won't be of great help. Montenegro were very unlucky to end up here instead of the quarterfinals where they belong, realistically speaking. On the other hand, the English just can't get their first win and that's no wonder considering their attacking impotence. Regardless of the Montenegrin shock, this should be a one-way street as these teams are nowhere close in terms of quality. Details

Slovenia's first game against Hungary here saw 50 goals and everything else went over, even against the strong defenses of Austria and Germany. Today they're facing a team with huge defensive problems. France have allowed 35, 30 and 31 goals in their last three games. Their offense may be too hasty, it doesn't have the discipline, even though they've shown the desire against Denmark, although it may not be too indicative as both teams had no imperative in terms of results and the first half ended with 35 goals. I expect another efficient game today, Slovenia can do a lot in offense, and their keeper is problematic, while France have good shooters at the back and wingers that like to take their chances and the quality to keep the pace up, especially in the playoffs. The margin is not too high and it should be used. Details

Thiem said that his match against Vesely yesterday was his best in recent weeks. That shows he's had problems with his performances as he had his ups and downs. He saved break chance in the first game, he saved it on his set serve. The reasons are the same as when I went for the counter-handicap with Souza. The Austrian is not playing well, regardless of what he says as we have seen much better things from him. Despite his weaker season, Granollers is the best player here in Kitzbuhel. He's defending the title, he feels well on this altitude and these two defeats against Thiem were not some devastating defeats. After all, he had 5-2 in the last match and he missed a match point. It's actually good that he lost as that match only increased the odds for today. Both matches could have gone either way and Thiem doesn't deserve to be such favorite, because of Granollers as a player and his own performance here and in recent weeks. I believe that the Spaniard will win as this is too much underestimation of a Top 30 player who's defending the title. If this were Thiem from two months ago, I wouldn't mind but this way I see no reason for it. Details

Regardless of the two being in the top form of their career, I can't ignore two things. Giraldo is fighting to get into Top 30 and many will say - finally. He's always had the game for it but he lacked consistency. Estrella is a late bloomer at 33 and he got into Top 100 and he's done a lot, but I can't shake the feeling that he was quite lucky with all of that. I don't want to underestimate his fighting spirit, in fact, all credit to him on that, but he's a much weaker player than Giraldo. The Colombian had a good test in form of Becker as the Grman had had five matches on hard court in last 10 days. Estrella's win against Lopez cannot be regarded as too important on account of Lopez's tiring grass season and engagement last week, along with his problems with shoulder and adaptation. Giraldo crushed the veteran player in Rome this season, he got 5 breaks from 6 chances and offered none. The Domininan will play more easily in faster conditions but one break can be enough for this. Giraldo is a class player and motivated to get the status of the seed, while Estrella has been a challenger player since the start of the season. You don't become a consistent ATP player at 33. Details

Zhao reached the second round through some fortunate circumstances. Wickmayer had some back problems after which she did terribly on her serve and rallies. Even though Carol was consistent in the rallies, it should be taken with a pinch of salt as Wickmayer's movements were not too great and she wasn't a real threat. Ivanović played a really good match against Lisicki. She was good on her serve and post-serve game and she was particularly impressive on the return. She read her opponent's serve well and used her chances. I think the situation will be the same against Zhao as Carol doesn't have a too good serve and Ana will have plenty of break chances. In addition, Zhao has not played against a player with such a good forehand like Ivanović's. Ana showed against Lisicki that she has plenty of options in her game and I'm sure Zhao won't get too many points. Details