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Karatantcheva staged a comeback to reach the main draw

While Knapp is expected to play quality matches like the first-round match in Linz, Karatantcheva earned her spot in the main draw in qualifications. She showed good tennis and is far from being harmless

Although before Linz no one expected Knapp to be at her level after a long break, the Italian suppressed the rumors already in the first round. She had no problem dictating the rallies and taking advantage of Hantuchova's poor movement hitting the ball hard. She crowned it with a convincing two-set win.

Still, the consequences of her long absence from the courts came into play in the second round, when she squandered a set lead against Voegele and lost the match. She certainly put in a good fight and rallied from 0-4 and 2-5 down in the last set just to miss the break point opportunity at 5-5 and lose the last two games of the match.

Knapp had her chances to win, but she didn't really deserve to. She had a terrible day, making 13 double faults and over 60 unforced errors. She had no control over the ball, which mostly ended outside the court lines. 

On the other hand, Karatantcheva failed to battle into the main draw in Linz, but managed to do so here in Luxembourg. First she executed two easy wins over Voracova and Lim and then made a turnaround to defeat Grace Min.

Even though she wasn't that bad on serve, having won 61% of points behind first serve and 44% behind second, Karatantcheva double-faulted seven times. This has been a recurrent problem for her for some while and she repeated it in the second round with five double faults. 

As for her first-serve game, Karatantcheva was mostly confident behind first serve. She was brilliant in this segment in first two rounds, but Min had an answer to her serve in the first set. But the problem is her low percentage of serves "in", which Knapp is sure to take advantage of.  

Knapp is still a favorite here despite her poor performance in the last match. She has a better serve, but also a much better return. Considering Karatantcheva's percentage of first serves in, she will face a real challenge in the first round. 

I think this match's odds aren't set realistically. The difference between these two players is almost 100 positions, and Karatantcheva winning in one match they had against each other isn't as important since it happened three years ago. True, Karatantcheva had a few good tournaments on the hardcourt lately, but those were against players a lot weaker than she is. She's been taking chances with the first service for a while now, and her hit is about 50%. It resulted in a lot of double errors, as well. Considering Knapp's strong hits, she'll definitely go deeper into the court when returning the second service, like she did against Voegele. It's clear Karatantcheva will have some big problems with the service. On the other hand, it's hard to expect another bad performance from Knapp, like the one against Voegele. She has two matches behind her in Linz now, and a few trainings in Luxembourg, and she must feel a lot better now. She has a better service and stronger hits, so I'd be surprised if she didn't win in two sets. I went for the more careful option, a handicap with a "poor" 2,5 games, because the bet could go in three sets, as well.