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Veszprem opened the second part of the season with easy wins in SEHA League. They had 15-7 against Metalurg after the first half and 21-11 against Izvidac. We need to point out that Veszprem were not complete in those games. They have the big game against Barcelona over the weekend. Sabate said key players will play a bigger role in this game and in the Barcelona game.

In such circumstances, anything but a big win at half time would be a big surprise for me. Apart from the aforementioned +8 against Metalrug and +10 with Izvidac, Veszprem have +6 against Gorenje, +5 against Nexe, +4 with Celje in SEHA League. Those are the teams Eger cannot be compared with. Looking at relevant games in the Hungarian championship: Komloi 18-8, Balmajzuvaros 17-8, Budakalasz 13-9, Mezokovesdi 15-12. Those two last teams were without some key players. The same goes for the first head-to-head in which Eger put up a good fight in the first half (10-11). But even without some players, Veszprem ended up winning.

Eger are a team of modest quality, even in Hungarian terms. They finished in the penultimate place last season. They were down 18-10 to Szeged home and 17-4 away. Looking at this season, their record is better, mostly because of home games. When it comes to away games, they are not as good. For the rest of the season they will have Afiltulin on loan from Veszprem. Still, Eger are the worst offense in the league that never went over 10 in the first half and 21 overall. I expect them to struggle a lot against Veszprem defense, which should lead to a lot of easy goals from counterattacks. I don't see the point difference going below 7-8 by half time. Details

So far in home championship games, Ademar only won, and in those against inferior teams they were almost always fierce. The exception it only 15-14 against the very good Valladolio who they broke in the secondhalf (15-10), and in other games it's like this: Bidasoa (16-12), Genil (18-10), Huesca (17-10), Guadalajara (16-9), Encantada (16-7), Aranda (17-12). They covered this handicap very smoothly in latest away games against Benidorm (17-12) and Morrazo (19-11), the duo belonging to Adelma's ranks and direct relegation battle competitors. Today Ademar will try to use the same recipe, moreover because in four days they have a big derby against Logrono coming up.

Adelma have no related away games, in the first half of the championship they played against the strongest at home where they managed to resist Barca quite well. Logrono beat them with 37-32, after first half it was 17-14, and against Ademar they didn't stand a chance, after first half they were losing 15-8. Only in the finals, when Guijosa started to rotate, did they improve the impression. In away games their results are colorful, but Ademar are stronger than all of those teams. Besides, against them they covered this handicap at home Today I expect at least four or five points of difference after the first thirty minutes, and another good option is race to 15 in the first half. Details

New selector Andresson set up Sweden in a great way, they are perhaps the mos pleasant surprise here. Since he took over, they have only 1 defeat, to Denmark, when Landin made 23 saves, but Sweden was even with them until the end. They won all other games, and results by halftime were: Montenegro 14-9, Slovakia 15-8, Norway 20-14 and 15-13, Chile 18-10, Bahrein 17-5, Argentina 16-11, Qatar 19-12, Egypt 15-9. So only Norway were down by 2, in all other games Sweden were in the lead by 5 or over at halftime, and we should especially point out the first game against Norway, Qatar and Egypt.
Belarus defeated rather indifferent Hungary in the last game under rather strange circumstances. Another minus is the first half against Germany when they scored 16 goals. When Germany got more serious in the second half, they were quickly in the lead by 6. Croatia covered this handicap without Duvnjak in the first 40 minutes, and in the other two games, Belarus lost to Chile and struggled against Saudi Arabia. Before the championship, they lost their chances against Russia three times, lost to Latvia, and defeated Egypt, but Sweden were in the lead by 12 in the 40th minute against Egypt.
If we look at the match-up, Swedish defense seems impressive and I doubt Belarus will get much chances. On the other side, Belarus are soft, in the first half they conceded over 15 goals, only 12 in the first game. Sweden scored at least 33 in all their wins here, they were limited to 25 against Denmark. This is the knock-out stage and Sweden will give their max. It all depends on them here, if they continue playing like they did so far, Belarus cannot compete against that, so there should be no dilemma in my opinion. Details

The Slovaks have a similar lineup to the last year's, with most of the key players. They easily dealt with Ukraine then (19-12 first half) and Finland (13-9), but they got stuck against Croatia. Now they'll try to get through at home, and the key game will be against Slovenia, but they first have to deal with the two weaker rivals. I expected them to be motivated, start forcefully and spare energy for the important games later on. They've definitely got the quality.
Kosovo left a humble impression in April, easily losing all three games. It was 15-7 in the first game against Lithuania, after the first half, then 15-5 against Germany, and they were a bit evened out to Russia (9-12), but the Russians weren't that motivated because they secured going through.
Besides, they played European Open, with all the game seeds they've got now, and lost all seven games. With the first halves being: 10-13 against Romania, 6-19 Sweden, 8-9 Estonia (each 25 minutes), 10-17 Czech, 15-15 Finland (-9 in the end), 7-18 Austria, 17-14 Georgia. Estonia and Georgia are weaker teams, the Slovaks beat the Finns easily last yaer. Whenever the opponents took them seriously, Kosovo were lost. I think Slovakia will lead by at least five after the first half here. Details

Everything is pretty clear here. The Macedonians need 19 points of difference to make it to the World Championship, anything below that will lead Portugal on. The Netherlands beat Turkey with 11 points of difference, Austria with 12; when Turkey were stronger and more complete; then Portugal with 13, Poland with 10 and a modest game, and those are all teams like Macedonia which needed no point difference. Here we have full motive, Turkey are very modest for whom this will be the third match in three days, which is also important. We have a difference in quality, a strong motive, and there should be no dilemma. Details

Poland are almost definitely out. Even if they win today, Macedonia are not expected to lose to feeble Turkey in the last game. On the other hand, Portugal have 3 points, as many as Macedonia and will look for a win here. They will want it to be as convincing as possible since the goal difference will in that case be crucial. Their goal difference is by 5 goals better than Macedonia's at the moment but they also have a much tougher game coming up and need to go full throttle.

We pointed out that they are a team which limited the top teams to 25 or less goals. Macedonia scored just 21 with Taleski and Neloski. Poland are pretty modest in offense as they do not have a player capable of going on a scoring run. I expect them to have a lot of offensive-end problems today. They scored 22 (8 in the first half) in the first Macedonia game, which fell apart and 31 against Turkey yesterday (just 12 in the first half), after which their rivals lost power.

They scored 24 against faster-paced Iceland (Iceland needed good goal difference), 21 against Switzerland, 20 against France, 14 against Spain at EC. They went over that in Serbia game, but the Serbians played rather bad defense throughout the tournament and later on against Noway and Iceland. Looking at their major competition games with tougher rivals, they have 23 against Sweden and 19 against Germany at WC, 23 and 23 against Germany and 24 against Switzerland home at EC. Details

With the outcome of yesterday's games it is pretty clear that we should look for the team that will go to the World Championship among these teams. Portugal are a quality offensive team, in the last year they limited Germany (second-played at the World Championship) to 21, France (defending world champions and third in Europe) to 22, Spain (reigning European championship) to 25, Slovenia (second in the world) to 23. True, they played all the games at home, but these are still quality teams and great numbers. Yesterday they conceded 27 against Turkey, but they controlled the game early, and conceded 16 in an exhibition second half. If they needed to, they could limit the Turks to around 20.
Macedonia played a great game yesterday, they demolished Poland at the start. Poland have shown that they cannot make a comeback when they start losing. But that does not change the fact that they are a rather limited team, that depends on several players, primarily Taleski and Neloski. They were both at the European Championship, as was Kuzmanovski, who is not here, but in 5/7 games they were limited to 24 or under. They went over this margin only against Netherlands, in a game that fell apart early (11 and 19 in the second half) and in the battle for placement against fast and defensively modest Russia (27). In preparation for that championship they were limited to 22 or under in four games against Slovenia and Croatia. At the 2014 European Championship they went over 25 only against Russia and Romania... I expect a great battle from the start to finish and I don't see Macedonia over 25-26 goals. Details

Portugal have not yet played in big competitions but that was mostly due to tough schedule and close defeats rather than to lack of quality. They beat France last season, lost closely to Germany, Spain, Slovenia. They beat Romania and Estonia before that defeat to Slovenia easily (half time 21-8 and 17-11).

This Turkey is among the worst teams in the generation. They lost all 4 qualifiers apart from complete amateurs from Armenia. For comparisons sake, they lost to Romania 37-30 in 2014. Even more relevant are the games from April of last season when they played a tournament in the Czech Republic where they lost to the Netherlands easily (8-14), to the Czechs 13-13, second half 8-15) and Austria in a relevant game 11-15. Portugal are somewhat better that those teams. Also, the Turks will be without Gulyurt, Bayraktar and Ilgin here and they did rather well in those qualifiers in April.

It all comes down to the fact Portugal are better by 6 goals per half time at least. They will have enough motivation since they are after the first big competitions and want to do well. They covered this easily against Estonia, Romania, who are much better than Turkey. Also, they have key two games coming up in the next two days and they will want to settle this as early on as possible. Details

Brengez opened the championship as main contenders for the title and went on to lose 6 out of 11 games. They still can get a title but the next period will be very important for them. The three teams at the top have gotten quite a lot of ahead, Ferlach are far as well. Krems are a point ahead and they play Bruck today as favorites. In other worlds, a defeat here would leave Brengez in danger of getting into the last 6 rounds at least 3 points short of top 5 players.

They have not conceded over 28 in home games or in Supercup against Fivers. They conceded over only in some away games (fast-paced Ferlach 33, Krems and Schwaz 31 each). In the first part of the season, they conceded 29 to Hard. Last seaosn in 6 meetings with these opponents they went over 27 only in the first game (30, 22, 27, 22, 26, 23) when they won home 36-30. Brengez are very similar to the team they were last season (Lie Hansen left and that is the biggest problem).

Hard went over this margin against offense-oriented Ferlacj and below-average Bruck last season. When it comes to relevant away games against good opponents, they have 26 against Krems and 21 against Schwaz. We can add the 22 against Minsk in the EHF Cup to that as well. Hard's strongsuit is defense and even if they get points here, it will be because of that segment. I think Hard are slight favorites here for no reason. I think team under at visitors is the best option here. Details

Barcelona have much more offensive problems this season than before, but they demonstrated that they have enough quality to limit the best European teams to low numbers. If we look at the Champions League games, at home they conceded 23 against Veszprem, 25 against Kiel and Kadetten, away they conceded 23 against Wisla and 27 against Flensburg. Only the games against Kadetten went over 27 goals in the first half, they have 27 against Veszprem with five in the last two minutes, other games finished at 23-24 goals. If we look at relevant opponents in national competitions, they have 13-11 at Logron, 17-17 and 14-14 with faster Granollers. Of the other, slower teams with less quality, 14-15 at Guadalajara, 16-8 at Cuenca, 19-8 Arand and 13-12 Adelma.
Today they are welcoming second-placed team in the league and there should be no lack of motivation. Ademar have one of the best defenses in the league, no one scored over 27 against them. They went over 28 in the first half only at Granollers, whom they scored 19 (second half 10-10). At the same time, with the exception of Genil whom they demolished by halftime, they were limited to 27-29 goals in their wins, had problems in offense even against weaker teams, even at home. They are aware that they have to reduce the mistake to minimum and I doubt that the will rush here, they will try to keep up for as long as possible through strong defense and backfield line. Overall unders are also good options, especially Barcelona under 34.5, but since it is possible that Barcelona will have a big lead already in the first half and that the end of the game could turn into an exhibition, the first half under is the best option. I cannot see this at 30 or over goals. Details

We have a clash of two defensively great teams, that usually rely on that segment and do not rush anything, especially Adelma. Considering Guadalajara's squad situation, I don't believe they will rush either and the overall under seems like a good option to me. However, due to the fact that Guadalajara have only one game under 53 (at 51), and that Adelma played second halves in their last four games at over 30 goals, the first half seems like a better option.
In relevant games, Guadalajara's first halves were at 15-10 against Benidorma, 11-13 at Cuenca, 12-16 at Valladolid, and 10-13 at Aranda, only the game against Valladolid is an exception. However, Adelma are not offensively strong, but they are capable of achieving a lot with their defense, especially against weakened Guadalajara. Adelma's relevant games were at 8-15 at Bidas, 12-9 at Genil, 11-13 at Huesca, and at home 11-10 against Sagunta, they are coming here after 11-11 against Granollers. In the seven games they played so far, they have only 27 against Anaitasuna, in their best offensive game of the season, and all the other games they played halves at 24 or under. This is a clash between direct rivals and I expect the game to be tough and combative from the start. Details

Kaspija started the first game very badly, hitting only six goals in 20 minutes, but once they caught the rhythm, Hlohovec couldn't stop them. They scored 33 in the end. That's only the continuation of great offensive games, they scored 32+ in five of the last six. They hit 29 in Chechov, but they're the champions and the game was evened out for the most part, so that's no blunder, and is still pretty well over this margin. They scored 33 against St Petersburg, and in the pre-season, they scored at least 30 in 11/15 games, and 29 and 28 in two others.
Hlohovec look pretty humble at the beginning of the season, with four defeats in seven championship games. In the pre-season, they allowed over this margin in 12/16 games, and in the official games, the only opponents they left under were the inferior teams from the bottom part of the league table, teams that are very humble offensively. Kaspija like this would be right next to Tatran in the Slovakian championship, the Russians look great offensively, and I think they're the better team and the favorite for the win here. Solving the winner early on would just be an extra bonus for this pick, but either way, I can hardly see a scenario where Hlohovec can keep Kaspija under this margin. Details

In the preview of the game, Maksimov pointed out that the focus is on Montpellier and that the leaders will have limited playing time, but that it should still be enough to create a lead and later send in younger players. In other words, Medvedi will try the get a big lead as soon as possible and decide the winner already in the first half, and later rest their key players. The only relevant game this season is Medvedi's game against Kaustik in which they did not do well and had 13-11 after the first half, 28-23 in the end, and that is a real minus to the bet. However, we should point out that they covered this margin at Saratov and Krasnodar, against teams with ambitions for a medal. Ufa lost at home to both those teams, minimally to Krasnodar, while they lost by 11 to Saratov (9-12 at halftime).
Last year these two teams had almost identical rosters, it finished 17-8 here, 18-11 in Ufa. Medvedi have, against a team slightly worse than Ufa, Voronez, had 17-11 after 30 minutes here, won 38-23. On the other side, Ufa had 7-13 at Perm, 8-18 at St. Petersburg. Medvedi have quality defense that can stop Ufa, and score easy goals from counterattacks. If they have the right approach, Medvedi should cover this handicap, because Ufa are limited offensively, and dependent on 2-3 players. Details

This is a clash of two defense-oriented teams, and in this phase of the competition where the better result of the two matches is crucial, under gets its value. Still, between the total under and the hosts' team under, I decided for the second option because I think Pfadi are the better team, and if anyone is going to go over 25, it's going to be them.

During the summer Balaton lost some important players which is felt in their game. They started out the championship very modestly, they took points against teams from the bottom half of the league (currently among the last four teams, no one over two points), while in the other three they didn't go over 26. In the first round they stood up to Veszprem in a visiting match, even though the tight result was caused by hosts underestimating them. When Veszprem later tightened their defense, Balaton remained at only seven goals.

Pfadi changed between seasons. They're still great defense-wise, only Kadetten and Otmar recorded over 25. They're coming here after they left Wacker at 20, seven in the first half and 13 in 50 minutes. Last season in the pre-season they left Pulawy at home at 25, and 23 away, in the group Raphael at 24 at home and 28 away, Bjerringbro at 28 at home and 27 away. They only allowed 31 against the more offensive Minsk in Belarus (24 at home). They will push until the end here, considering that every goal counts before the second leg. They have the defense with which they can pressure a lot stronger teams than this Balaton who are offensively very modest and who will also try to win over their defense. Hosts say that Pfadi's defense is unknown to them, and when I take everything into consideration, I don't see this going over 25-26... Details

The team over is in my opinion the best option here. I believe Bregenz will cover the first half handicap but they have been struggling with defense at the start of the season. They conceded at least 29 goals in all 5 games and 31 to Bocholt in semifinals of the Champions League qualifying tournament (20-17). However, while things aren't great defense-wise, the offensive end is much better. They got limited to under 31 only by Hard last week but that was a derby match and a clash against the best defense in the league. They scored 31 in the Supercup against Fivers and 32 against Braga in the key game for CL 32. They score as many against Krems, who are better in defense and overall than Loeben. Those kind of performances will see them score 35 today, just like in the two games last season when they scored 36 in each.

Bregenz are the main contender for the title, while Leoben have an even younger team than before. The more experienced team from last season conceded over 31 goal on average (32 away). I expect things to be even tougher for them this season. They had a lot of games at 30 or so conceded goals in preseason (Csurgo scored 27 in 40 minutes). They have the good game against WW but Schwaz and Ferlach displayed all their shortcomings. None of the teams they met so far (preseason included) had Bregenz's quality. If they managed to avoid a convincing defeat, that will be thanks to the offense and Bregenz's current defensive shortcomings. I don't see them getting out of this game with under 33.34 conceded goals. Details

Nexe did not have a chance in Zagreb, but mostly because of their offense. In the first half they did not score for over 10 minutes, in the second half they made some technical fouls and conceded easy goals. In pre-season they conceded over 28 only against Arendal, after which they limited Holstebro to 23 and Aalborg to 27. In Kanjiza they limited Romanian Constanta to 25, Szeged to 24 and Metalurg to 22. They are coming here after Zagreb scored 28 the other day, 16 in the second half.
The team from Velenje were significantly weakened over the Summer, they lost some key players from last season, and while they are managing defensively, they are limited offensively. They had problems in pre-season, they went over this margin only in Maribor and Magdeburg, after they scored 22 three days earlier. They scored 26 and 27 against Vardar, 25 Melsngen, Gummersbach 23, Varazdin 26, Csurgu 28. At the Champions League qualification tournament they had a lot of problems against Cocks, whom they scored only 28, and then only 21 against Tatran in the final. 26 against Celje the other day.
I think that Nexe are underestimated here, but since I expect a tough game from start to finish, even more so since this is an important game, team under on the home team seems like the best option. Details