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Turda made up for the 8-goal deficit in the first round but Sporting are not Valur and I don't expect any kind of drama here. On the contrary, I think Portugal cannot win here. In any case, we have a meeting between two offense-oriented teams. The game could easily be settled earlier and last week, when the goal difference was important, they played at 65.
Turda stayed under 55 only with tougher teams like Timisoara (three times), CSM, Satu mare, Focsani, Fagaras. The last three of those are the worst teams in the league. Sporting stayed under 55 in only 4 out of 21 away games. The only problem is the 52 with Braga. They are a team that is in the race for the Portuguese championship but they were always in over (the only exception was against tougher Aquas). This should finish with at least 57-58 goals. I wouldn't be surprised if it went over 60 again. Details

Valladolid are one of the toughest trips in the league. They are 11-0-2 here and have wins over Anaitasuna, Granollers, Logrono. The only slip was at the start of the season against Genil, when they had a +5 lead in the second half. I don't expect Ademar to have it easy here but I do expect the best defense in the league to live up to that status and I don't see either team going over 30 here.

Looking at home games, only the top three teams conceded less goals than Valladolid. They allow the opponents 25,8 home, which was boosted by Barcelona with their 38 goals. They are the only team that went over 30. Still, Valladolid didn't try in that game, knowing that they cannot get points. The 28 against Anaitasuna, 21 against Granollers, 26 against Logrono are much more relevant. They often scored 30 but struggled against tougher teams ((Huesca 28, Adelma 27, Bidasoa 30) like Ademar. The team from Leon has the best defense in the league.

Ademar didn't concede over 28 the entire season, including two games against Barcelona. They conceded over 30 only to Granollers in Cup semis. That is their worst game of the season. The first h2h finished at 30-24, with the modest 9 saves by Valladolid's goal keeper. Ademar are 28-23 with weaker Adelma, 20-20 with Sagunta, 26-23 with Benidorm, 22-23 with Huesca. The only problem is 31-28 with Bidasoa with 21-16 in the second half, which I consider to be an exception. Details

Szeged are in control of their destiny. Home wins today and over Balaton would see them win top spot in regular season, which would see them face Veszprem in the final home. They will be very motivated here. Looking at their home championship games, their biggest slip were 25 goals against Velgledi (Csurgo and Eger are better and tougher teams, Tatabanya and Veszprem are a different level). That was back in November, in between meetings with Kristianstad and Celje in CL. They are now fully focused on this competition. Looking at the significant games against bottom table teams, apart from the one with Cehledi, Szeged scored 29 and 36 against Mezokovesdi, Vaci and Gyongyosi and 35 against Cegledi recently away.

Looking at visitors' results, they conceded over 34 just once in the season but that is the most significant game. It was when Veszprem trashed them 17-40. In the first head-to-head, they conceded 33 to Szeged home (in between two CL games with Kristianstad). It was 31-20 52 minutes into the game. A lot of unders here are not relevant because of the big difference in quality between the leading duo and the rest of the league. Some games are cons for this (34 against Mezokovesdi, 32 home to Eger, 33 to Balaton, 31 to Budakalasz away). The visitors have the second worst defense in the league. Ahead of the last two rounds, they already lost all chance of staying in the league. This is a matter of prestige for them. I expect Szeged at 34-35 goals at least. Details

Kielce have a 10-goal lead from the first game. Still, they said the goal today is to allow the opponents 24 max. The other goal is for their game to be even better than in the first game. That means there should be no holding back in defense throughout the entire game, which takes this to a different level.

Kielce were eliminated from CL Round of 16 and will look to make amends for the rest of the season. Looking at their league results after the defeat to Montpellier, they conceded 25 to Pogon away, 18 to their greatest rivals Wisla, 23 to Gwardio, who are similar to Gornik in quality, and 23 to Gornik in the first head-to-head away.

When their motivation and focus is at the right level, Kielce are too much for most Polish teams. Some earlier meetings of the season when those segments weren't at this level, don't concern me. Kielce conceded over 26 only against Pulawy and Gorinik even back then. They limited Wisla to 3 and some good European teams in CL got limited around this margin (Szeged, Vardar, faster-paced Celje). Gornik know they will be knocked out. When it comes to the more relevant games, apart from the h2h meetings, they have 21-33 against Wisla away and 26-34 against Pulawy. It was 19-10 there after the first half. Also, they have 19-30 against the Cocks in EHF Cup. Details

The first two games of this series only confirmed the massive difference in quality and the fact Heid has no solutions for Savenhof's offense, regardless of rotations (25 and 18 goals in the second halves). It was 44-19 here in the first series, after Heid went home with 37 goals conceded a few weeks earlier. It's a team with the second worst regular season defense and that conceded at least 32 to any of the better teams (top 7) away, even those who scored 5-6 goals less than Savenhof of average. The season is to finish for him today and I don't expect them to make this difficult for Savenhof. They are above the rest of the league when it comes to defense (3 goals more than second best offense on average). They got even better since Champions League finished. I expect them at 34-35 goals at least. Details

Graz are bring extremely underestimated here based on the fact they are a second-tier team. Still, they are by far the best team of the second league that could easily get promoted next season and that has proven to be top league quality. They had it rather easy with Linz yesterday. They have the home court advantage here and will try to stun their opponents. Fuvers don't have any slips home but they are not good away. They have no wins this convincing the entire season. They beat Tulin 28-20 in the Cup while they have no wins by over 6 in the champions. They only beat WestWien by over 3. Looking at relevant away games against bottom-table teams, they have defeats to Linz and Bruck, the +1 with Loeben and +3 with Ferlach. I simple do not see a 10-goal difference here. Details

When their motivation and focus are at the right level, no one can stand up to Medvedi in Russia. Some of the struggles they had in the season were a consequence of a weaker approach or focus in Champions League. That is over now, this is Cup F4 played on neutral grounds in Krasnodar. A slip would see them lose a trophy so I don't expect any surprises here. They won the two h2h of this season by 6 and 5 ( 18-13 in Saratov and 20-14 home after the first half). Saratov were 22-31 down against St. Petersburg away and 21-29 (11-17) home. Last season, it was 16-9 in Chehov, and 19-13 and 17-12 in Saratov in three important games. The teams are pretty much the same now and I expect Medvedi to try and settle this as early as possible because the final is scheduled for tomorrow. Details

Savehof won the first place in the regular part, and according to the positions in Sweden, they could pick their opponent in the quarterfinal. Of course, they picked Heid, who showed the least of all the teams in the quarterfinal, and who Savehof easily beat in their two duels. They won 34-21 at the beginning of the season when they played away (16-11 after the first half), and they played here a few weeks ago, when Savehof won 37-23, leading 21-11 after the first half and controlling the game completely. When they were focused a lot on the European competitions, they had some blunders in home games (Eslov, Kristianstad), but now the playoff is starting and I expect them intense from the beginning to the end, similar to their last games when their focus was on the championship fully.
Heid didn't prove they can threaten the best teams when playing away. Except those two against Savehof, they had 19-32 against the tougher Lugi (7-15 after the first half), 24-32 against Skuru (8-17), 21-34 against the fourth Hoor (11-15), and the last two teams are weaker than Savehof. I expect the defending champions to dominate here from the beginning to the end, and another, equally good pick is the first half handicap. Details

Brazil are far ahead of everyone, Argentina might match them (even though Brazil beat them by 10 and 16 previously), the rest of them stand no chance. Chile came here with a mix of juniors and cadets, and the game yesterday showed they're weaker than two years ago when they lost to Brazil 37-18. USA outplayed them completely, and they would've lost by 10-15 if Chile didn't start playing wild defense at one point. When the Americans finally adapted to it, they started increasing their lead again, winning 31-24 in the end.
That kind of thing won't do against Brazil. They're much better technically, and are playing aggressive defense, stealing a lot and crushing opponents like these. That's why they beat USA by 28.
Brazil crushed Ecuador, Venezuela, Columbia two years ago, even worse than Chile.
For Chile, this is a second game in two days. They can't get the second place, they're going to the quarterfinal, and it makes sense that the leading players will be spared for that. Their bench is pretty weak, with lots of cadets. That quarterfinal game will be the most important in their minds, so they won't care what the difference is here, 30 or 40. Brazil will get placed to the semis directly, they're free tomorrow, and they proved already that rotations don't influence their game or results in competition like this. I see this ending with the difference of 25-30 or even more. Details

Argentina scoring 44 goals yesterday (20-6 half-time) is no measure because the Dominican Republic are weak technically, which meant a lot of easy counter attack goals. Argentina are definitely not great offensively, but they proved they can play great defense. They had 7-15 against France, 8-14 against Slovenia in the first half at the WC in Russia, and those teams are the best in the generation. The games against opponents of similar quality were mostly evened out in the first half, both in the WC and the cadet championship two years ago. While getting ready for this tournament, Argentina won the tournament at home, and they dominated with their defense, 19-11 against Paraguay stands out. Besides, Paraguay beat USA 24-22, and USA are a afster team, with a much more hollow defense, and still, Paraguay didn't do so much there. Their only over was against Venezuela, 16-11, in the IHF Trophy last season. And nobody scored over 12 in the first half, which is relevant here because they won't do it against the Argentinian defense. They had 12-9 against Uruguay, allowing only 16 goals in the first 52 minutes. This is a duel for the first place, and getting through directly to the semifinal, so I expect the first half of the game to be quite tough. Details

Even before the tournament began, it was obvious that Macedonia and Faroe Islands will be playing each other to decide who goes to the EC. That is now true, both were crushed by Hungary, beat the weak Moldavia, and those matches have nothing to do with this one.
Macedonia didn't play many games with this team, only the EC two years ago where they were the host and still lost everything. In seven games, they didn't score over 23 - 23 and 22 against Czech, 17 Slovakia, and the last two were for the placement. While getting ready for this tournament, they only had 16 against Montenegro.
Faroe Islands allowed 24 to Iceland and 25 to Czech in the home qualifier games two years ago, and those two teams are better than this Hungary, they even kept Russia at 23. They had a similar roster at the European Open last year, and left a decent impression - Czech at 11 goals in 40 minutes, Austria at 16 and Iceland at 17 in games of 50 minutes. This game means so much to both team so I expect them to fight for it from the start, and the defenses to dominate. I think the Faroeans are underestimated here. Macedonia under 25.5 is the best pick here. Details

Russian league regular season is starting its final stage and ST. Peterseburg cannot afford any slips here. They lost the top spot but Krasnodar who are in spot 2 are just 2 points head of them and Stavrpol in spot 4 are two points short. Petersburg played one game less but they also had away games with both of those those opponents in the last 4 rounds. A defeat here would potentialy saw them face Medvedi in semifinal. In any case, the home team wants the runner-up spot and the home court advantage until the final.

As for their results, we need to differentiate between meetings with teams of worse quality (worse 4). They scored 37 against UOT home and 34 against Celjabinsk and Ufa. Sungul are faster and more similar to UOR when it comes to the game. They scored 30 against Sungul and Celjabinsk, 32 against UOR and Ufa.

Sungul average 30,6 per game on average, 31,7 away. They are much more competitive home. Thanks to the good offense, they stood up in the last away games but they conceded well over this margin against top teams: Kaspija and Medvedi 34, Krasnodar and Stavropol 39. They lost to UOR home and conceded 32. That defeat killed any chance for playoffs. I expect the home team to go over 30. Details

This is a direct clash for the playoffs and the last chance for Izhevsk. Luch is in a much better situation now with two points more and 3 games less. But winning here and beating Stavropol in the last round would see Izhevsk put pressure on Luck, who have a realistic chance with Ufa and Adyfa until the end. Both teams averaged 55,5 goals, Izhevsk is 13/17 for unders, Luch 10/15. The difference between upper and bottom part of the table is significant in Russia. Almost all overs were in games against tougher rivals.

Looking at teams from the bottom part of the table, Izhevsk have 52 with Ufa away and 56 home (Ufa play at 52,8 on average). They ave 51 and 54 with Adyif (who average 54,5), 53 away with Stavropol (Stavropol are at 57,8). Luch has 46 with Ufa,54 with Adyif, 63 and 64 with Stavropol. The 63 is the only over for both teams in relevant games from the very start of the season. The 56 Izhevsk have with Ufa home is a problem but they had a lot of problems with injuries back then. Most of the team was down with the flu, which forced them to forfeit to Rostov just a few days before.

The first H2H went to 58. It was faster in the final part (26 in the first half, 37 in 45). 3 goals were scored in the last minute but they still stayed under. Team under at Izhevsk is a good option because they went over 26 only against Ufa in September. Since Luch went over 30 only in two (both home, neither over 32), and scored over 27 only against Krasnodar away, the total under is a better option in my opinion. Details

Savehof were defeated in the last game by Lugio, and thus they also lot their place at the top, which could be additional motivation for them today. For them the European season is over and the full focus is on home competitions. In matches against bottom-table teams, they recorded 20 and 18 goals by half-time against Skari, 21 and 22 against Boden, 19 against Hellton in the first head-to-head, away. The only minus is 13 against somewhat stronger Eslov, which was the first game of the season. Hellton allowed 17 at home and 19 away against Lugio, and Savehof have the best offense of the league, and on average they record almost four goal more than Lugio. Additionally, the away team have injury problems, the coach said they'll play with a narrowed roster, and I don't expect they will have a nice time here. The handicap of the first half is also a good option, the same as Savehof over 32.5. Details

Nexe gained some speed under Horvat, of their 8 SEHA League games under him, they were under 29 only against Celje at home, and they played at Skoplje, Celje, Brest (scored 17 in the second half), home draw against Veszprem... In the preparation for the rest of the season they played a friendly game against Spacva in the 3x25 minutes format, and won 47-30.
Spacva are currently second-placed in the Premijer League, their games are at an average of 60 goals, away they concede 30,7. They are coming here after they conceded 32 to Rudar, one of the weaker teams in the league, and they haven't limited anyone to under 27 in seven away games. They are partially focused on the game against Gorica which is in three days, an important game in the battle for the Champions League, and coach Mecic announced that the players who haven't played much will get a chance. Another good option here is the first half handicap, but we have two teams who prefer faster, offensive handball and I am leaning more toward home team's over. I see Nexe at least at 35 goals. Details