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Nymburk are absolutely dominating the Czech league, and the bookmakers are often having a hard time setting the margin right. On Friday they played an away game against third-ranked Opava, and we had in my opinion a too high -26,5, -27,5. One should not wonder Opava put up a resistance, as they are a great home team and one of the best in Czech basketball this season, as their ranking shows. Today the margin is 5-6 points lower, although Nova Hut are significantly weaker than Opava. Nymburk are also less comfortable with opponents who play aggressive defense and have a strong inner line, such as Dečin, Prostejov, Pardubice, and even Opava. Palyza himself stated that Nova Hut don't have an inner line that could parry Nymburk's centers. Even if Kemzura decides to rest someone, he has 4-5 replacements in those positions, and every one of them will dominate. Nova Hut are dangerous from the perimeter, but when Nymburk set up proper pressure on the opposing guards, there are no open shots. Besides, you can forget the previous part of the season, Nyburk are done with the Eurocup and VTB league, and now we will see their real performance here. The torture in Opava will just provide an added stimulant, as the champions wish to send a message to the competition prior to the playoff and to Prostejov before the weekend away game. These handicaps are not a thankful thing to play, but Nymburk are so much stronger team that they can win a quarter by 20 points, as they've proven in the last 10 minutes of the Opava game. If they'd won that game with a 20-25 point lead, this handicap wouldn't be under -26.5. Nova Hut are significantly weaker, and have already proven many times this season that they cannot handle the strongest teams. Details

Even though I respect Strasbourg and Collet's squad, and I even think they can win this one, I think the margin set here is too high. Collet only has 9 players at his disposal, and the departures of Greeer and Ajinca were a huge handicap for their offense and it's never easy to play away in the French league. They have to win this through defense and Collet is aware of that. In the first part of the season, they crushed Pau Orthez by 30 points but they still scored only 73 points. This is the crucial game for the home team and Bergaud said that the play-offs have started early so I expect a huge battle. True, Pau may not have the best defense in the league, but they have improved it in a great run of wins and have not allowed more points than stated by this margin in last 8 games. Looking at the home games throughout the season, they've allowed more points than this margin only three times, twice at the start of the season and against Chalon, who are the best team in the league by far. On the other hand, Strasbourg have gone over this margin in all competitions this season (Euroleague and Eurocup included) only twice - against ASVEL and in Kragujevac agianst a team that likes a faster-paced games. All games included, Strasbourg have gone over this margin in 9 out of 42 games and in 5 out of 23 in the league. A total under is also a good option but this is a tad better. Details

The margin seems too high on the first glance, but still too low considering what we should be seeing today. This is a match with no significance in results, and both showed they love fast basketball in the last weeks. Lietuvos come into this match after they scored over 100 points in the last two home matches, and played 180 against Turow, and 200 against Enisej. Turow and Enisej are teams who prefer faster rhythm, Kalev also played against them in the last weeks, and always ended on a high number of points, 187 against Turow (166 in regular part), and 198, 183 points against Enisej. All matches with a big significance. Lietuvos only managed to get the second place in the group with their last wins, and Kalev fought Turow to avoid direct placement to the bottom. Estonians played 164 points even against the very defensively strong Spartak, in a match where they had 39% field goal. Aco's philosophy is famous, he loves games like these, and the roster he has is made for running. Lietuvos are in a calmer period of the season, getting ready for the finals of the national competitions and VTB League playoffs and this match will probably be a relaxation for them. With all that, it would be pretty surprising to see strong defenses in this match. I expect Lietuvos close to 100 points again, and Kalev showed against Enisej and Turow that they can follow fast rhythm offensively, and 75-80 points would be more than enough to take this match over the offered margin. Details

I have a lot of respect for the advantage of the home court in French basketball, and I don't often decide to bet on the guests. However, I can't ignore this match. This is one of the key duels in the playoffs battle, especially for the champion who are in a rough spot after a series of bad results. Today's defeat would lead them to a very difficult situation after the last six rounds. Still, we should keep in mind that Nanterre were focused on the Euroleague in the previous part of the season, then the Eurocup, and now they aren't. The championship is a priority and I expect them to be a lot better than in the previous weeks. Orleans aren't brilliant, far from it, their game isn't convincing, and I think they're old news most of all. The opponents realized that the backcourt shot is their strongest weapon, and if you take that away from them, they have problems. Nanterre have centers that should dominate the paint, I expect Donnadieu to detect the biggest threat coming from the home team and not allow Orleans to score like crazy, especially not in front of their own fans. Orleans only won one match out of five with more than five points difference, one with +6, one with +7, and two out of three convincing wins happened in the beginning of the season, in October. I expect them to have an easy job today, I'm skeptical they can win at all, and I think Nanterre have to win this with the real approach in the defense. Champions have fire burning underneath their feet, they simply don't have time to try again. The brave at heart could go for the guests' clear win, but simply because of the fact that Orleans are playing at home, where they're traditionally stronger, I'll go for the counter handicap. Details

This match is really important - the winner will take a huge step towards staying in the league, and the loser will drop into an abyss they'll hardly be able to get out of. Le Havre insisted on the better defense after the Leader's Cup finals, limited Nanterre and Orleans under 70 points in front of their own fans, and after 96 in Strasbourg, they'll rely on that segment again. Roanne are a typical defensive team, lacking offensive potential and players who can decide the match with over 20 points. They conceded 91 and 100 points in the last matches, and were convincingly defeated. Pavicevic clearly states they can't be winning like that and they have to go back to their own game style. It's clear, Roanne have the worst offensive effect in the league with 68.0 points per match. If they want to win here, they have to rely on the defense, and definitely not offense. I've been dwelling between the under total and guests' under, and even though both options are good, I finally decided for the second option, guest team's under. Roanne have 0-11 in the away championship matches, while on the other hand, Le Havre play a lot better at home. Except for the last two matches where they limited a lot more potent teams to low points, ASVEL were left at 71 here, Le Mans at 62, Dijon at 59, all teams really strong defensively, but with more of the offensive potential than Roanne. The importance of this match should also work for this bet, as should the fact that Roanne went over this margin in only 4 out of 11 matches, none of those times over 77 points. Details

There are too many reasons for an under in this game to ignore: Oktyabr following two games will be crucial to reach the play-offs as they control their own destiny but a defeat could eliminate them from many combinations. The game against Azovmash should be much easier and they are deciding their future today. On the other hand, Minsk have some chance of reaching the play-offs, but the would have to win by 20 points and have the results from the last round go their way. However, Minsk are fighting to avoid the last place in the group and a win would put them at ease, while they would have to wait for the result of Azovmash's games if they lose. Apart from the importance, this margin has no valid standpoint in stats. Oktyabr's games in the VTB league see 169.5 points on average, and Minsk's games see 161.7 points. However, Oktyabr with Culpepper and Oktyabr with Wafer are two different things. Coach Berestnjev said that he will demand a different, more organized approach from hhim team after the arrival of Wafer and the results show that. After his arrival, Oktyabr scored 161, 156, 157, 154, 169 and 131 points, i.e. 154.7 points per game. On the other hand, Minsk without Benson and Hunter are without two very important options and after their defeat in Kazahstan, they changer their coach and returned Krivonos, who puts a bigger emphasis in defense. The results are 140, 168, 117, 135 and 154 points in five games under his rule. This margin has largely been affected by the results from the first part of the season but circumstances have changed and the importance of the game should additionally affect the fighting spirit of both teams. Details

I've waited a bit with this tip, and even though there were no statements Nanterre, Donnadieu's came out a few minutes ago. In it, Nanterre's coach clearly indicated they will approach this Cup game seriously after their elimination from the European competition and we can expect a real competitive game. Bourg are the best defensive team in the second division, they have not conceded over 76 points at home in any game this season. Their coach relies on strong defense and will use it to try to make the French champions' life difficult. Even though Nanterre have had some high scoring games throughout the season, they're a defensively oriented team, especially against teams with similar inclinations. The best examples are recent league games against Nancy and ASVEL, or the Leader's Cup finals against Le Mans. In last nine games, they went over this margin only once, against Budivelnik who prefer an offensive game with short attacks. Bourg will try to impose their rhythm, which is completely different and I think the margin is too high, considering the circumstances. Details

CSKA traveled to Volgograd without four very important players, thinking about the match against Real the next week. In circumstances like those, Oktyabr's win wouldn't be surprising, especially since the rookie showed they know how to play against Muscovites. They kicked them out two matches ago in the Cup, and in the first match in the VTB League, they won the first half-time and only lost in the second. Berestnjev has a narrow roster to rely on, but also very good Americans who can deal with the roster Messina has right now. Guests' coach clearly said that they're not that eager to get even for the first match, they'll just "do" this match and try to get a routine win. Getting ready for Real is what they feel is important, and there's no much point in working on the leaders and risk a serious injury. The fact that the players with minor injuries were spared proves it. If you take a look at CSKA's away matches this season, they rarely won with a big difference, especially lately, and only Himki managed to celebrated with a difference over this margin this season. However, Oktyabr are a lot stronger, better organized with Wafer, this match is one of the key matches for the playoffs for them, and I expect them to resist really well. Details

Triumph come to this match without worrying about the result. After two difficult matches this week, Karasev decided to give Higgins the rest he deserved as the best player, and he won't be able to count on Kulagin because of an injury. Like Triumph, Minks also had two matches this week, a lot more difficult, but this one today bears much more meaning to them. Considering their tough schedule, I don't expect either of these two teams to run like crazy. I though about the counter handicap for Minks, but Triumph's under is a lot better option. Minsk left CSKA at 66 at home, Himki at 73, Gaziantep at 67 points, and they conceded over 80 points in the regular part only twice this season. It was against the ultra fast Oktyabr in the first match of the season, and against Ural, who also play really fast. Today's match against the Belarus is one of the key matches in the VTB league, and I expect them to try and play the defense tougher, especially considering Benson and Hunter being absent. Karasev will rotate a lot, give the players from the back of the scene a chance, and I don't think they'll easily get 80 points here. Details

I wouldn't expect over 142.5 points in this match even under the normal circumstances, and these definitely aren't. Roanne started all the alarms, they're hanging by a thread when it comes to staying in the league. The management, the coach and the players had a meeting this week, Pavicevic almost got fired, but the players stuck by his side and showed unity. Today's match is one of the crucial ones in the season, they have to end the negative streak. Roanne aren't a team who win with the offense, but we can expect them to invest the maximum effort in the defense, and a game with very low number of points. On the other hand, Nancy aren't coming relaxed, either, any blunder could mean disaster in the playoffs battle. After having a row of three defeats for the first time this season, they reacted great and brought back the good mood thanks to two great matches, leaving Le Mans with 49, and Pau Orthez with 65 points. I expect them to focus fully on the defense once again, and Nancy could be better in the paint and the jump, which could decide things in the end. That's why Roanne under 70,5 points is not a bad option, but since I don't believe Nancy will have 75-80 points in this match, I went for the under total. Roanne conceded over 75 only once in the regular part of the game at home this season, and considering the importance of this match and the team being agile, I doubt that will be the case today. The first match in Nancy offered a great fight for every point, ended with 56-49, and ten days prior, Nancy celebrated against Le Mas 59-49, so it wouldn't be surprising to see something like that today. Details

Lietuvos are the favorite for the win here, but I doubt it they'll destroy the Polish team. Turow are doing great lately, they're on a good streak. The offense in particular started functioning. They still have slim chances to get into the play off and they're capable of keeping up with Lietuvos' efficiency. Turov lost only two games in the last 55 days, both by three points. On the other hand, Lietuvos are in a great situation, they need any kind of win here and also need to rest some players ahead of the important game with Zvezda on Wednesday. They weren't able to win easily lately, not even in the domestic championship, and I don't think they'll do it today. Some 7-8 point difference with the chance to get everyone to play would make the coach very happy. Details

I had my share of doubts about this game, but Brown and Kalnietis' absences and Lokomotiv's no-stress approach to VTB League forced me to choose this bet. Nymburk failed miserably against UNICS in Eurocup, but I think that will only provide them with additional motivation and we'll, I think, have the chance to see them perform well here. Rarely did they lose home this season, they beat Haifa, Siena in Eurocu and I believe they can put up a good fight here. on the other hand, Lokomotiv are exhausted after the Maccabi game. It's been less than 48 hours since it took place and the absence of two extremely important, possibly even key, players, Williams and Simon, might turn out to be too big a disadvantage. Lokomotiv are doing as much as they have to in VTB league, they beat Kalev by 11 points a week ago (Kalev are doing much worse than them), I doubt the same will happen against Nymbruk.I wouldn't even be surprised if the Czechs jeopardize their plans here. Details

I think that margin in this game is primarily caused by the game in the first part of the season, but it is too high for several reasons. The first reason are the standings as both teams are close to play-off spots and every defeat will put them further away from that. Apart from that, Nancy have lost three games in a row for the first time this season and they traveled to Le Mans where they limited Wood and the guys to 49 pointsr. On the other hand, Pau Orthez have been focused on defense lately and this is definitely starting to bear fruit. They have won five league games in a row and have not conceded over 75. Today, they will have to base many things on defense as this away game cannot be won through offense alone. The only teams that have scored over 75 points 75 against Nancy at home are Chalon,the best offensive team in the league, and Le Havre, in a game which was settled early on. Today, the intensity is much higher as these are direct rivals for the play-offs and I expect them to up a fight and I expect this game to see about 145-150 points at most. Details

I have to admit I was pretty taken aback with the odds of 1,55 on Prostejov. Ostrava are an uncomfortable away match, but Prostejov proved in all three matches this season that they're a good team. They come complete, and Nova Hut still can't rely on the American center Folker. The vice champion is still undefeated against the teams from the bottom part, and we shouldn't doubt their maximum involvement, especially with Opava threatening more each day. No one will relax here, and Nova Hut will have a tougher job because of it. Without Folker, they'll still be relying on Willman, who'll play as a center, even though he's a typical 'four', and the four shorter players, and they'll hope for a great shooting night. However, Prostejov are stronger from the perimeter shots, they play defense on the opponent's back line great, and the concept of teams like that are to their liking. The results against Kolin speak of this best, they defeated them in all three matches this season with at least 23 points difference, and they didn't concede over 63 in neither match. They weren't that convincing against Nova Hut, but still a lot more than against some other teams, and I expect them to win today. Details

This handicap is set as if Minsk were coming complete and that's most certainly not the case. A few weeks ago, they had an away game in Moscow and the handicap was set as -20 and unfortunately, it didn't go through due to a great last period by CSKA. However, Minsk then had an American center duo in their roster, without whom this is a completely different team. Rebounds are Minsks strong side and it's unreal to expect balance in that domain today. Uljanko (204 cm) is their tallest player in the squad and Himki will know how to take advantage of that through Augustine, Lončar and perhaps Davis. If Minsk decide to go for zone defense, Himki will punish them from outside as I don't think Popović and the guys will have another poor shooting performance. Himki are focused on Valencia and Kurtinaitis clearly said that he wants a good game after the defeat in Spain and I believe their approach will be at the top level today. Apart from that, Minsk have games against Turkish Gaziantep and I think they could make more calculations. The Belarus champions are aware that this squad gives them not chance there and will put their money in the last games in the VTB League and games in Eurochallenge. The difference in quality is huge and I expect Himki to win here by more than 20 points. Details

Their head to head games are always tough and almost always end at small numbers. Despite beating everyone in the league, Nymbruk didn't score more than 80 points against Decin in the last 10 games. Even though they are able to do it today, I think no more than 150 points will be scored. Nymburk never conceded more than 65 points in the home championship games, and I think the same will happen here. They played against Kolin last week, a team that rely on a faster pace games and three point shoots a lot because of the bad back court, which is why 138 points were scored in the last game. The game against Decin will be a lot tougher. The visiting team were under this margin in the last four games, having conceded 64 points against Pardubice and Kolin respectively. Details

Maccabi are too underrated here. They beat Lokomotiv in all three games this season and they have shown they can handle them. Lokomotiv cannot guard Sofoklis while Smith did a great job handling Brown. Maccabi have had only two defeats in this phase, they kept Madrid tight until the last few minutes while their debacle in Moscow is a result of many absences. Blatt know all of Lokomotiv's weaknesses very well, and he's aware that he has to win this game if he wants to keep up with the leading duo and I believe they will beat Lokomotiv for the fourth time this season. Counter-handicap is a good safety precaution in case of a tight game, while Lokomotiv under 77.5 is also a good option considering they have not scored over 75 points against Maccabi in 4 games (including pre-season). Details

Without Spanoulis, Olympiacos are not the same team and they won't have an easy task today. Milano showed in the first game that they have a solution for them, they have a similar concept like Panathinaikos and we know how the Greek derbies end. This is a very important game in the battle for the quarter-finals. Milano have 5-3, four teams have 4-4 and only 3 spots are available. A win here would be a huge step forward for Milano as they would have two wins more and better head-to-head, which Oly would have a hard time making up for. Team under on Olympiacos and total under are good options but I decided to go for the first as I think the Italians have a chance here. In the first game, they limited Oly to 51 points and Spanoulis was in the mix back then. In Top 16, they went over this margin in only 2 games and if we look deeper in the past, only three times in last 15 games, 85 against Fener, 80 against Barcelona and 78 against Real. I think this game will be decided at 70 points each or less and I don't see the hosts going over 80. Details

In my opinion, Himki are too underrated here. They are, without a doubt, on of the best European teams at this moment, although they are not playing in the Euroleague. Undefeated for almost five months now, they've lined up over 30 victories during that period, including two over their local rival CSKA. This is one of the key games of the season, and Himki are entering it in optimal condition. Their first center Davis is back, which will give them domination under the rim, especially as Valencia are missing Lavrinovič and Liščuk. Kurtinaitis is aware of the great guard lineup Valencia have, but pointed out in his statement that his team haven't struggled much against strong shooting teams this season, and have the defensively strong guards that can stop them. I see Himki as the favorite here, I'd only put them on equal footing since this is played in Spain, but Himki have already proven countless times this season that the location of the game has no influence on them winning or losing. Valencia lost both times against UNICS in the Top 32, who are in my opinion weaker than Himki, especially over the last few weeks. Valencia did not impress in their last games, they've got injury problems and cannot be a favorite against a rested, fully prepared Himki who have a full roster. If the home team even manage to win, it will hinge on one shot. A clean win for the away team is also a great option. Details

Too many things suggest an under for this match. The match is very important, especially for the home team who would be miles away from the Champions League next year if they lose this one. Flensburg see this match as an opportunity to join the battle for the title. These teams played nine championship matches in the last five seasons, and only went over this margin once. However, both are really weakened today, with a reduced rotation in the frontcourt. It resulted in them turning towards the defense in their last matches. Fuchse limited Lemgo to only 23 goals with the great Stochl on goal, after a few uncharacteristically bad defensive matches. Flensburg also have great solutions for the goal, and went under this margin in all three championship matches after the break, they played with 44 goals against Wetzlar, and went over only against the super fast Logron and Drott in the Champions League. We can hardly expect much running today, it wouldn't work for either side, with their limited rosters, and I think this will go for 50 goals, maybe even less. A great option is Fuchse under 27,5 goals, as well. Details