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I think this margin was made solely on Zagreb's play-off games in which they went over this margin in four out of seven games. In their defeats against Cedevita and Cibona, when they defeated Gorica, and now at Sibenik when they played without centers, fast and efficient. They went over against Kvarner after overtime. They were under only in tougher games, in which the opponents were more even. In the first game against Split they played at 147, against Kvarner at 140 in regulation time, against Zadar at 143. I expect an even game here as well (so do the bookmakers) and I don't see this going over 160 points. Since Skelin took over Split, they are disciplined, tactically more responsible and better defensively, so there are not many overs by his team on this margin, 6 in 24 games. Twice against Kastela, once against Sibenik, in the Cup against Kvarner, at Gorica, at home against Zadar. I think this can fail only if they have a crazy shooting night. They are playing for important points, this is their third game in 6 days. I don't think there will be any rushing. Split, lef by Skelin, faced Zagreb three times - 74-59 at Split, 90-67 and 75-72 at Zagreb. So, even that blowout was under. Details

I know why I took this bet and why I decided for this handicap. Fenerbahce lost their first game against Efes in the league by 9 points. Since Efes slipped up against Gaziantep in the previous round, Fener have a clear situation ahead of them. Wins in the remaining four rounds, if today's is by 10 or more points, brings them first position at the end of regular season and home court advantage in the play-off until the end. OK, we can say that Fener are so strong that the advantage doesn't matter to them, but Obradovic is not the kind of coach to think that way. I am convinced he will go for that difference today. Can he reach it? I am sure he can. Fenerbahce recently faced Efes in Euroleague, it was a to be or not to be game for the away team, Fener had nothing left to play for. And they were in the lead by 18 three minutes before the end. They won by 4, but they were not chasing any difference back then. I am convinced, if they had needed it, that game would have gone over 20 point difference. Besides, we are talking about a team that defeated Real by 6 and 22 points at home, by 12 away. They are currently playing brutal basketball. Euroleague isn't until mid-May, they had time to recover from the game against Real. This Efes gave not bought me with anything this season, they are bad in defense, rely a lot to Heurtel in offense, nad Fener have 'pit bulls' in backcourt positions to defend against that. Details

I went with an under at Charleville last round and it turned out well in spite of 44 points in the last quarter and 85 in the second half. And that says it all. The bookies offer Charlevile at over 150 points and I plan on taking advantage of that again. They improved defense massively in the last 4 games and limited the opponents to under 70 three times. The coach is talking about defense again and about the need of staying in focus in defense. That approach has been bearing fruit. Vichy are a team for unders. They might not be like St. Quentin, Vichy's last opponents, but they are not far from it either. They struggle productive teams but when it comes to these kind of opponents almost always finish with an under. They went under 153 in the last 5 away games and if we count the Cup game with Bourg in, have only three overs at 152 in the last 15 games. They finished on the margin with Roanne (152) and Hyeres (152). Every other game was an under. The first head-to-head finished at 142 points. Let's just also add that Charlevilla played Saint Quentin and Souffel in Leaders Cup group stage (teams which mostly record unders). ALl games finished under this margin (SQ at 148 and 145, Souffel at 142 and 140). Vichy have 21 unders at this margin in 29 games this season, 12-3 away, 7-3 in the last 10, there is also the h2h and Charleville's performances. I don't see any problems with this bet. Details

The first head to head went sky-high but I'm sure that won't happen again. They played two group stage games in Leaders Cup ahead of this season. Saint Quentin was the first one away 83-65 (a blowout), while Charleville won the second one 75-70 away. Both of those were unders. Saint Quentin have the third best defense in the league which allows an average of 71,3 points. They have 22 under and 5 overs at this margin this season (11-2 home, 8-2 in the last 10). Charleville's stats are not even close to that but here's why I'll go with them today. They played very good defense in the last three games to allow 68 (fast-paced Orcies), 76 (increasingly faster-paced Lille) and 62 (Roanne, the fastest of the three). The coach is talking about defense a lot, saying he expects the team to keep it up. That is why I think this 151,5 margin is off. Charleville played at 145 points with Denain, 142 with Vichy, 131 with Souffel, 146 with Lille. Those are teams similar to Quentin. They also have an under at 144 points against Bourg. The 'suspicious' results here are the ones against Hyeres and le Portel where they allowed a lot of points. But both of those teams are very good in offense. SQ are not great when it comes to that. They hit 70,3 points per game and have the worst offense in the league after Souffel (70,2). This is an important game which should stay under. Details

I think this margin is partly the consequence of the first h2h between these teams, which finished at 190 points. Milacic was in charge at Jolly back then but he didn't do very well and got sacked. Ever since Velic took over, Jolly changed their game. There is no fast paced for them now and this margin is definitely too high for Jolly. They stayed under this margin in 9 games since Velic took over. Skrljevo do try to play a faster paced game even though they do not play brilliant offense. But, they have proven that result is more important than impression in the last three rounds. They got better in defense when it was important and stayed under in the last three games, even in the one against Sibenik home in which they hit 85 points. The game in Kastela afterwards finished at 146, the one in Split at 147. Velic had a debut at Jolly against Skrljevo and that game finished at 143 points. This is a very important game and I don't expect anyone to rush into anything. Kus might not play at Skrljevo, which is a good thing for this bet as well. The potential blowout is not a good thing. Jolly were decimated in the last rounds but they had a 3-week break and I think they should be well-rested even if there are only 7-8 players on the team. Details

On Tuesday Le Mans earned the Cup semi-finals. They limited Gravelines in a visiting match at 60 points, and they allowed 16 in the second half. That's how good Kunter's team can be in the defense. Why would they want that today? They have 1-4 record in the last five league rounds, at home they lost three out of four matches. They managed to slightly jeopardize their playoffs because the ninth Dijon is only two wins away. That's why I expect them to be at their level today. At home, at 148.5 points margin they stayed under (counting only regular times) nine times out of 12 championship matches, with two overs at 149 points. Nanterre, as the visiting team in the league have 8-4 record favoring the under a this margin (counting only regular time). They went over against over teams Chalon and Pau Orthez, and Dijon and Orleans. Those are only two scores which are a bit hard to explain why they went over when it shouldn't have. The first head-to-head was at 153, but Le Mans had +15 at half-time, and it went over because of the 47 points in the third quarter. They played two matches in the preparations. It was 75-71 for Nanterre and 69-62 for Le Mans. Both teams force defense and stay under. Nnterre even have a better defense when it comes to allowed points than Le Mans (72.9 - 73.6). The match is important because of the playoff fight. Everything points to the fact that this shouldn't go over the set margin. Details

If you ask me, this margin is over a couple of points. And it's not logical for the second match of the Cup semi-finals for the margin to be under for the total number of points than here. Gravelines and Le Mans already played twice this season, both times in the championship. In Le Mans it was 73-69 for them, and they also won at the start of March at Gravelines' with 79-61. They had a crazy shooter night, they recorded 11 out of 20 three-pointers, play McKee was at 8-for-10. That surely won't happen today. Even with that blowout, they stayed below this margin. Both teams base their success on defense. Gravelines are the third defense of the league, they allow 70.2 points, Le Mans allow 73.6, but in both matches they left Gravelines below 70 points. I had them a couple of times in "unders" because Kunter's team are good for such things since their defense is usually great. Today the Cup finals are at stake, the match is very important and both teams see this as a chance to reach a trophy. The total statistics don't favor the under as a one-way street, but both teams stay on less points with other unders. Details

This match is of great importance for both teams. Alkar and Gorica are candidates for the Champions Leagur, and everything will be known in the last round, but who loses today will lessen their chances. Alkar got more lively since Milacic's return. So it's no wonder Alkar played three defensive matches under his leadership. At 135 points with Jolly, at 145 with Zabok (they allowed 79), and at 147 with Osijek at home, and they relaxed in the last quarter which they have lost 27-19. Today a blowout and relaxation are not part of the plan. Gorica are more offense-oriented and that is seen from their results, but I think the importance of this match will dictate their game. Besides, I've seen them live in Osijek, it's not classical running around. That match was also important for them, and they ended it at 126 points. Okay, the one in the last round against Split was also important, but they failed there. Gorica has a 5-4 record in visiting matches in favor of overs on the existing margin, but the last three stayed under, against two unders (Jolly - 148, Zabok - 142, and Osijek - 126). I expect a feisty match which is more around 140 points, and not gravitating towards 155 or over. The first head-to-head went at 169 with Gorica's 95 points, but such a scenario doesn't seem realistic. Details

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When it comes to these two clubs, this has become a bet I cannot miss out on. It's already been successful once this season, granted, at a margin that was a few points higher. Let's start we the things we know - this is a city derby between two teams that are openly hostile to one another. Secondly and more importantly, we have to take a look at the situation on these teams. Sibenik are without two players who are important for the offensive end. They are left with two players who can hit points, while others aren't really capable of that. Jolly became a defensive machine under Velic. They have nothing but unders at this margin since he took over - a total of seven. There is one more thing that makes me believe in another under even more. Washington left Jolly this week. His average was 16 points and 4,7 assists this season. Mustapic, Vranes and Pavlovic and injured and I don't see who else could step in to get Sibenik in an over here. They are also not great on the offensive end. And finally, 153 points were scored in their h2h. Washington hit 20 of those, Mrva 12 (also not here anymore), Vranes 12, Pavlovic. Badzim and Basic combined 35 out of 79 for their teams. Velic knows how dangerous they are and he'll try and stop them, while letting others to take shots. The first game in the league finished at 153, the one in the Cup at 169 but after overtime (79-79 in regulation time). Teams are quite different now. Details

Rouen are arriving to this away match with six seniors. They lost with such a line-up at home to Asvel with 34 points of difference, and by half-time they were already losing with 21 points of difference. I really don't see a way in which Rouen will stand up to the defensively great Dijon. Laurent Legname's boys left Antibes at 46 points in the last round. Before that, they left Nanterre at 52 in an away game. Both matches ended with Dijon's convincing win. They're fighting for the playoffs, they have the motive. At home, against teams of similar quality (but in a full line-up, which is not the case with Rouen!) they dealt with easily. They beat Orleans with 21 points of difference, Antibes with 23, Le Havre with 20, Cholet with 25, Reims with 24, Nany with 27, and the last two are two classes above Roune. Especially such a Rouen who, somewhat complete, lost with 21 points of difference in an away match against Gravelines, with 32 against Monaco, 19 against Nanterre, 11 against Asvel, 16 against Nancy, 21 against Limoges... Lately they covered that, but with Reims, Antibes (which was a surprise for me), and with bottom-table team Le Havre.
Now, this situation opens up a lot of betting possibilities. I opted for the half-time handicap. With it we will avoid the possible easy-goingness in the second half if the difference becomes big, even though Dijon are not such a team and I doubt that will happen. Because of that, the final handicap is also very good. Other good options are Rouen's team under, either at the end or at half-time. Details

I had some doubts about this bet but only because I don't like margins this high. But, when it comes Evreux, no margin is too high. They are the most efficient team in the league at the moment with 86,3 points on average. The defense is not their focus as the average of 80,7 points they allow proves. Saint Chamond aren't shy either - they ht 76,1 and allow 78,2 points. The first h2h finished at 147 points, but Evreux had a 45-36 lead at half time. Evreux stopped at that moment and hit only 24 points in the second one. That must have been the first such case this season. It was a fast-paced game with 136 shots, 21 turnovers and 32 free throws. That adds up to some 170-175 attacks, which is a lot.
Evreux went over this margin 7 out of 10 times this season home and got limited to an under only against St. Quentin, Vichy and Boulazac (161, 164). Saint Chamond are 0-10 at this margin away but the opponents were very slow. Poitiers at 163, Boulzac at 155 - and those were the faster-paced teams. They met Poitires home last round and finished with 180 points and even went at 176 with Fosa the round before. Their overs are mostly happening home but they also prove they have no problems with such games. Besies, this is a clash between two offense-oriented teams. Evreux take most shots in the league (64,1), while Chamond take 61,4. Evreux get most free throws on average and have around 90 attacks per game. Chamond are at some 80. Details

We have here a story about last chances, but I think both teams are aware that their 'ship has sailed'. Realistically, they can hardly reach the quarter-final so that makes this game one of the less important ones. I also like Darussafaka's win with 2.10 odds or more, which I think is not realistic right now, but since I am not a fan of betting on final outcomes, I decided to bet on Darussafaka's team over. Cedevita seem like a defeated army lately, they conceded 87 against Kuban in their last Euroleague game with relaxed approach in the final quarter, and now they conceded 82 at Partizan. In their last 10 games in all competitions, they limited weak Metalac under this margin, and both Cup games (Kvarner and Zadar), they conceded over in the other seven games. In all home Euroleague games they conceded over this margin, they actually have not conceded under 78, except against Laboral mid-November. Darussafaka's stats are not in favor of the over, but to me the last few games are relevant. They started improving with the league games against Usak, they showed in the Cup that they are playing the best basketball in the season, after that they confirmed it in the next two games. In those six games, they scored 92 (Usak), 83 (Trabzon), 76 (Banvit), 65 (Fenerbahce), 78 (Unicaja) and 84 (TED Kolejliler). Mahmuti has said that they improved defensively and that they are faster and more efficient in offense, and I expect them to confirm that in Zagreb. Details

Last week we had a pick on under 154.4 for this match, and it was 131. What has changed since? There could be overtime today, and penalty shots final. That's the only reason why I'm taking smaller stakes. Both teams are in good defensive form, as confirmed in the league duels this weekend. Galata a bit less because they allowed 77, but that was from Fenerbahce... Pinar left Trabzon with 67, with 28 in the first part. Some of Pinar's players are injured, the Turkish press say something about Jones, Gonlum and Carter trying to practice, but they're in pain. They'll play because it's an important match. That shows how much this means for Karsiyaka. Galatasaray said a few times that their goal is to win this. After this, there's no second chance. This match is a to be or not to be, so I expect them to be at their best defensively. Details

Le Mans and Monaco meet again and I'm going with an under again. They played a championship game on Friday to finish at 195 points with two overtimes. regulation time finished at 134 points. The first game in Monaco had an overtime but regulation time finished at 134 points.That was below this margin, both times. I expected the bookies to lower the margin but they didn't. If the tip last time was great, so is this one. The circumstances have not changed, the only difference is that this is a cup game. But Le Mans talked about the importance of this and about wanting to get back at Monaco. Gabale said they need to be aggressive from the start, just like in the second half. They limited Monaco to 31 point in the second half then. Monaco struggled with rebounding a lot which is why Le Mans had a huge number of free throws, I expect Monaco to make some adjustments there since they pointed out that needs to improve. The only thing that bothers me is Monaco's coach Mitrovic who said the bench might have more time on the floor. But, the fact they stayed in le Mans all these days suggests they do care about this game more than he'll willing to admit. I'll go with this again for the third time. If the third game of this season goes into overtime then I'm really out of luck. Details

There are simply too many things going for the home team today and I cannot miss out on this low and definitely doable handicap. Let's start with the obvious - the two preseason games which showed how big the quality difference between these two teams is. Saint-Quentin won the home game by 19 and the away game by 17 points. The teams were pretty much the same back then. The away team were without Pren, who definitely brings extra quality to his team but if I know that, so does home team's coach Sousa. He proved to be very good at coming up with successful tactics in the away game against Everwue, where they managed to slow the pace down to give themselves a chance for the win. The visiting coach Castano says that his team will be at the right level in some 4-5 months. The whole team has changed last summer and some rather young players joined, which means they lack experience, even though the talent might be present. They regularly 'covered' this handicap in preseason in defeats to Gravelines (by 20 points), to Saint-Quentin (19), Evreux (13) Le Portel (4 - the only game that doesn't fit in), Evreux (27). St. Quentin played a draw with third-tier Berck home at start and lost to Lille. But they then beat Boulogne by 19 and Souffel by 6 points. The only game I cannot explain is the defeat to Charleville in Leaders Cup but they opened it on a 2-0 record. It was clearly a bad day. But, we have quality at home team here and a good h2h from preseason. We have motivation after the home team opened with a defeat and a handicap that won't allow any loss of focus. Details

TED can accept crazy running when the opponent asks for it. I've felt it myself when I thought they'd stay under against Yesil in the last round. But that same TED have something special. When they face a serious opponent, they get serious. They played Fener at home recently, and I hesitated to go for an under due to having respect for Fenerbahce's offense. It ended at 141. Really, there's quite a pattern now. 18 rounds have been played, TED always stayed under against stronger teams - 151 against Darussafaka, which is a lot, actually. 140 against Galatasaray, 127 against Pinar at home, 142 against Besa, 144 against Trabzon at home, 147 against Efes at home, and that one against Fener. They only went sky high points-wise against Fener, and Gaziantep at home. Those are the only exceptions. No need to talk much about Darussafaka. Their style is well known. After getting crushed by Fener in the league and Kuban in the Euroleague, their defense looks fantastic - allowing 52, 52, 74, 67 and 55 points. They stayed under this margin in all five matches, and against Kuban in the blowout. The first one against TED ended under, even with 45 points in the last 10 minutes. I don't think a blowout is likely here, and since even offensively strong teams like Fener, Trabzon, Turk Telekom, Pinar didn't hit over 71 against TED at home (the defensively oriented Usak did in the first round and later Banvit 84 in the regular part), I don't think Darussafaka will get those numbers either. Details

Milacic is back in charge at Alkar and is to have his debut against a team he had tio lead due to bad results. This game could not be more important. Both teams need points here. Mlacic talks about hard work and fierceness, which is always his focus. He is highly admired in this town and the team will try its best for him. On the other hand, Jolly gopt better when Velic took over. Velic managed to force them into playing defense. Their game against Skriljevo finished at 143 points, the one against Gorica at 148, the one against Zabok at 118, the one against Cibona at 147 and the one against Osijek at 126. Alkar recorded some overs lately but mostly away against tougher opponents. They had an over only with teams that have better offensive ends like Zagreb and Kvarner. They played Sibenik at 138, Zabok at 130 Skriljevo 122, Split at 140 and Kastela at 148 back when Kastela were a run'n'gun team. The stats have spoken and this is worth the standard stake give the importance of the game. Details