betprepare.com

Zagreb and under go hand in hand. Even since Vujovic took over Zagreb are a warrior team that will fight against anyone and will not rush into anything against top-level teams. Last season's Champions League results say it all about Zagreb. All of the games that mattered, expect for the one against Logrono, finished at under 50 goals. The one against Kiel finished at 2 as well (27-25) when Zagreb were 9-13 after the first half and went to to stun the Germans by scoring 18 in the second half. Metalug scored 17 against Zagreb next (36 in total) OSG 24 (49), Meshkov 23 (48), Kolding 17 (39 in total). Finally, last season's dream team of Barcelona got limited to 25 goals while the game finished at 48. zagreb's important SEHA league games were similar to that, all under 50 goals (against Vardar, Tatran, Meshkov and Veszprem). Zagreb are much like last season, with the only difference being in offense, that is now even worse since Valcic is not there. The defense is, on the other hand, even better as Zagreb's start to the season proved. Don't be fooled with 17 goals Nexe scored against them in the first half. Zagreb's players were just too cocky back then. When the coach gave them a piece of his mind at half time, everything changes and Next got limited to only 6 goals in the second half. No one has done that to them in the last few years, not even teams like Vardar and Veszprem). Zagreb then took the long trip to play Meshkov and limited them to 21 goal. Not ever Kiel or Paris managed to do that last season in Brest. Kiel's offense is worse this season since Jicha and Palmarsson left, meaning all the responsibility is now on the shoulders of Duvnjak, who spends 60 minutes on the floor and can do what ever he wants. The games Kiel won were won through defense, expect for the one against Burgdorf. Also, they lost in Zagreb and got pretty beaten up. That will give Kiel a lot of motivation to retaliate today and will make Zagreb fight for each goal. There was a lot of nervousness and border-line incidents even in the tes game a month ago (Kiel won 30-29). There should be even more of that today in the official game before the packed Zagreb Arena. Gislason will try to run away from the fight and play 6-on-6 but I don't think that will work. No one could against Vujovic so far, not even last season's Barcelona. Kiel won't be able to do it either, which is why I think Duvnjak and co. will be left with a lot of bruises today. I'm going with the half time under even though the total under seems like a great option as well. I don't think Zagreb can score 18 in the second half again but I'm even more convinced that half time result will be along the lines of last season's (9-13) Details

I don't think Denmark will crush Bosnia and Herzegovina, nor that this is going to be a match bursting with points, and that's why I'm going with this bet. But you won't do wrong if you play the total under or, even better, a counterhandicap on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Denmark are not the nine points stronger than Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their ideal seven players are: Landin - Eggert - Lindberg - Hansen, Morgensen, Sondergaard - R. Toft Hansen. Six of them are missing, only Landin will be at the goal. And we know when only Mikkel Hansen is out of Denmark, problems emerge. What Gudmunsson has at his disposal is still a strong team, but surely not a group who could "wipe the floor" with Bosnia and Herzegovina. I've already written about them in a prediction for an under against Belarus. In Zenica they once more confirmed their offense is terrible, but their defense is awesome. They are a solid team who are arriving to Denmark with a motive. Yes, it's going to be hard to take points, but it was equally hard to do it in Iceland, and Markovic's boys did it last year in June. They are not going to surrender in Denmark, which means they will drag them into their game pace and that the hosts will break a sweat for each goal. In 26 matches in the last two years only once were Bosnia and Herzegovina defeated with nine or more goals of difference. This season only three matches went over 54.5 points, and two of them were at the President's Cup. Bosnia and Herzegovina conceded 28 goals the most this season, and it was also in a "dead match" against Croatia. So, not once were they to conceding this much. Denmark scored 25 in the first match in Tuzla, but it was with Hansen and a couple of other players who are missing today. Denmark played 18 matches this season, and only in five of them did they scored 32 or more points. And it was twice against Belarus who like to run around and have a soft defense. With Slovenia it also happened twice, and once to the critical Saudi. All five times Hansen and co. were playing. I repeat, a counterhandicap is also a great option (and counterhandicap of the half-time would be even better), but this one is good and it can be demolished only by Bosnia and Herzegovina failing early. Details

On Wednesday Montenegro were on a good track to take points from Serbia, but Sevaljevic missed the penalty shot and missed to secure the European Championship, but they are still going there, even as the best placed third team. They can even lose today. And they will, despite the big job coach Obradovic did. Kudos to his defense, to the back line Borozan - Sevaljevic - Lipovina, but what's awaiting them in Iceland is one step above them. Iceland with Palmarsson, Sigurdsson, Gunnarsson and others have far more stronger players. I'm afraid Iceland's defense will be too much for Montenegro's modest offense who didn't manage to score over 25 goals and who usually struggle in away matches. Last year they scored 24 goals against Belarus in the World Championship qualifications. I expect Obradovic's boys to show some discipline and will, but I'm afraid they won't be able to avoid the counter and semi-counter attacks by Iceland. In the end, maybe Iceland's statements are not to be taken lightly. If Halgrimsson says that they will "enter this match like it's the matter of life ad death" and captain Sigurdsson says that they "have to pay the debts from Montenegro", I'm afraid it's going to be no picnic for the away team. Last year Iceland underestimated Bosnia and Herzegovina and they were eliminated because of that. I don't doubt they will try to reach a safe advantage of five to six goals, and I'm afraid they won't stop at that... Details

Slovakia's bad results in these qualifications and Sweden crushing Latvia offered us this enormous bid, but because of a few factors, it's missed. First of all, Slovakia changed their coach, and they're looking much better under Liptak than under Heister. Second of all, it seems that the players appreaciate him - Antl and Stranovsky didn't play a single match, and now they're playing the end of qualifications, and those two men add the additional quality unlike the one they (didn't) had against Latvia to whom they've lost. Despite the fact that Slovenia left them at six difference at home, they've shown good handball, especially in the defense. The team who have Rabek, Stranovski, great wing Antl, brothers Urban, pivots Kopac and Petr... They're not a team to be messed around with. And who's awaiting them in Sweden? Sweden took it out on Lavtia without Kristopans, and they gave M. Andersson, Tobias Karlsson and Lukas Karlsson free. Without the M. Anderson - T. Karlsson axis, they are no longer the best defense of Europe, now they're just a solid one. On the other hand, if we know that Du Rietz and Kim Andersson aren't in the draw anyway, without Lukas Karlsson, Sweden's first line is out. Against Slovakia who have their defense set up I don't expect an offensive rhapsody. And finally, and I could have put this as number one, Slovakia have a motive. They not only want to progress under Liptak, but in case of a big defeat they could be one of the three worst teams of the qualifications and head into additional qualifications. Considering this match is one of the first ones on schedule, Liptak's team will fight for an honorable defeat. Details

As a principle, I don't like betting against the market, but they moved this margin a goal or two up, probably because the Belarus like running, but I don't think they or their statistics don't work for the argument of under, and can't pull this game over 53 goals. There are two clear reasons - this is a match of the year for both teams, the stakes are huge - placement to the EC, the arena in Zenica will be brimming full, and those conditions are definitely not good for relaxed handball. Second, BiH are really strong, with fantastic defense (Terzić-Vranješ make a difference in the strong defenses of Veszprem and Szeged), the great goalie Burić, but also bad, sometimes critical, offense. In 15 matches they played this season, only three went to over. Makes sense - two at the WC in the "President cup", when everything was already done and they didn't rely on the defense and the result, and also the match against the fast Iran in the group, where BiH scored 30. All other important matches were in the deep under. In the last home match against Lithuania in Cazin, they struggled and only the inspiration of Kosta Savić, who's injured today, pushed them towards 25 goals in the last ten minutes. In Lithuania they only scored 15 (?!). I don't know what significant change there should be for their offensive performances to improve today of all days, if we know that in 12 matches this season, besides the three mentioned overs, they scored most against Lithuania, 26, and 24 to Tunisia. On the other hand, their defense is a force that kept Denmark with Hansen at 25 goals in Tuzla. Regardless of whether Rutenka plays or not, the Belarus can hardly outplay that reach. The first match in the Belarus, when there was room to try better luck in the next match, it ended 25-25. In Zenica, in a heated atmosphere, with no room for mistakes, I doubt any of the teams will go over 25 goals. Details

It's simple - Barcelona are a level above Kielce, will play this match with 200%, this handicap is still in the zone where there's no relaxing, maybe only if there's 6-7 goals difference. All the key players are ready. Kielce wouldn't have anything to say even if their main players, Zorman and Aguinagalde were ready. Barcelona made only one mistake in 44 matches this season, in an unimportant duel against Wisla. Kolding took one point when playing away against Barcelona, and Barca didn't cover this handicap in away matches against Bendirom and Zagreb, but did in the other 40 duels. None of those matches mattered, and I think if Barcelona had to win those, they would by four goals difference.
Kielce also lost only one match this season (Montpellier at home). But, put aside the Polish championship where they only have one serious opponent, they weren't that thrilling, especially in away matches. Szeged had them cornered, and they got away with a minimum win. They only scored 12 goals till the 45th minute against Vardar, and ended up winning, and they really struggled to beat Dunkerque and Aalborg.
Barcelona are two levels above all those teams that were mentioned. They beat Wisla 3-0 in the Polish championship final, and that Wisla were injured and troubled, but still resisted well. They played without the first back line, with the right wing as the middle back (Daszek), and even like that, they scored 28 goals against Kielce, and missed the penalty kick to even out the score. If they couldn't keep the back line Racote - Daszek - Montoro, how will they keep Barca who are aliens in comparison? The Polish team are decent offensively, but that's all. Bielecki, Jurecki, Lijewski, Buntić and others don't have the capacity, and I think they'll bleed for every goal. Barcelona pushed it all the way defensively only 5-6 times this year, and those opponents didn't fare well (Aalborg, Zagreb). The fact that Zorman and Aguinagalde didn't come ready, and they're the main links, definitely doesn't help Kielce. All in all, Barcelona will definitely pass through. Hats off to Dušebajev and his tactics, but he doesn't have the players who can complicate this. Details

Forget about friendly matches with Qatar (53) and Russia (67) which Peric played with a young team and those two against Croatia at 63 and 64 goals that Serbia played to help Croats ahead of the World Championship. The new Serbia lead by Peric is just like the one Vukovic had when they reached EC final home. They played extremely tough defense and kept the attacks going for as long as they could back then. The Israeli coach Dukic said they will run like hell ahead of the qualifying game with Serbia and still finished with 48 goals. Serbia played Montenegro before that, took a big lead early enough and everything since then was extremely controlled and even when Serbia had it all figured out things went very slow. Those two matches at 46 and 48 goals against weak opponents, that is how Serbia will do in official games. Peric is very clear about it. He is constantly talking about defense and good defense approach. Abutovic is back on the team, Ilic and him will create a tough block that has enough height, weight and experience. Čutura will organize the offense, which means attacks will go on for as long as one minute, which Vujin, who normally isn't too patient, will adjust to. The back line Ilic-Cutura-Vujin are 106 old and I don't think they are here to try and outrun Iceland. Granted, Iceland are known for going with faster pace but they are also known for going with tougher approach. I don't think they can get Serbia over this margin.
This game is important as Iceland lost in Montenegro and a defeat today might see them not qualify for EC. Serbia have two easy wins but have the two matches with Iceland and the one against Montenegro coming up, which will make this very important. The home team proved to have offense problem at last WC, with or without Palmarsson. They scored 16 against Sweden, 25 against Denmark and CzR, 26 to France in a good game, only 28 against Egypt (started with the substitutes and didn't play to win), and 32 against the feeble Algeria. They struggled with the tough Swedes (24I and Germans (25) in preparation matches. Serbia will be just as tough as those teams. On the other hand, Iceland's aggressive defense will be a tough task for Serbs. To sum up, this will most likely not finish with more than 50 goals. The team under at Serbia is just as good an option. Details

Despite the announcements, Kiel underestimated Szeged last week. Their body language showed it, and Gislason didn't start the match with their biggest weapon, the 3-2-1 formation, but with the softer 6-0. Szeged were leading 11-6 by the 15th minute already. Kiel pulled themselves together and lead 27-26 in the 54th minute. In short, they conceded 15 goals in the middle 40 minutes, and 16 in 20 minutes. Their defense was soft, not nearly as good as the one they used to crush their opponents this year. Kiel are playing at home today, they haven't lost a single game there this year, but on the other hand, they don't need to just win, they need to win by three, which means they'll try to crush their opponent. I think Gislason will use 3-2-1 from the start, and Bombač and his company won't know how to deal with it. Szeged's back line is the third left back of Spain, and Kiel's is a dream team - they have not only the first backs, but the best players of Croatia, Spain, Czech, Iceland, Germany and the second player for Serbia. Also, every one of them is among the best players of the world on their respective positions. True, that kind of math isn't really worth the time in handball, but still. Hats off to Szeged who are really a team that play the best within their limit, they played this Champions League great, but Kiel will easily pass through today. They have the goalie Palicka, will be fully focused and motivated, and the audience will stand for them. I expect those 40 minutes from Szeged (from the 15th to the 54th) to be applied from the beginning, and then the guests just have to worry to avoid a complete debacle. Details

If you would show Veszprem and Paris's lineups to someone who doesn't watch handball, everyone would think Paris are a favorite because of their players' names. Paris have Hansen and Omeyer are Top 5 players of the world, there are also Vori and Narcisee who used to be in Top 5, and it would be hard to count all the medals the rest of the players have, like Honrubia, Abalo, Kopljar, Barachet, even Gunarsson. True, if someone would count Top 5 worst coaches, PSG's Gardent would be a legitimate candidate. That's probably why the odds are as they are today. Paris were disappointing many times, and played worse than they can, but there are plenty of reasons why Veszprem aren't the favorites as the odds would suggest. First of all, nobody beat Paris by 5 or more in 44 matches this season. Kiel were best, beat them by 4, in a match where Omeyer and Abalo were questionable, Honrubia wasn't playing, and the Parisians were leading at the half-time. Kiel are a better team than Veszprem, by the way, and can crush someone more easily. Veszprem are a tough team, they play a great defense, they're a team unlike the Parisians. But they're not a team who can crush someone. They beat Lowen here by three, Montpellier only one, Celje three, and out of the more serious teams, they only beat Vardar who were without Gorbok, in a match where Lacković got injured. They tried to over run them, and gave up soon. Zagreb was supposed to take them to the overtime in SEHA league semifinal, for sake. It's no coincidence, their basis is in the Ilić-Chema-Nagy-Sulić, who are over 140 years old total. They're ready considering their age, but no wonder that the Hungarians can't keep the rhythm high for the entire 60 minutes, and they regularly oscillate in the final moments (like against Zagreb, the first duel against PSG, Lowen, Montpellier). That's especially true for Ilić who's irreplaceable in both the defense and the offense. Even last year, when Paris didn't have Omeyer and Accambray, Veszprem stopped at the difference of five goals. And I think there's no point discussing the quality and character Omeyer brings. In the end, I've seen him play in lots of matches, and I can't remember when he lost by six... I expect a firm game that will be solved in the final moments. Details

Vujovic has achieved great things with this team by convincing them they are capable of playing anyone. Zagreb beat Kiel and PSG home, played a close game with Barcelona home and with Veszprem in SEHA League semifinals. Still, there is doubt in the 'almighty' Vujovic's ability to convince his players to believe in success in Barcelona. The players are happy for being able to stand up to Barcelona in the first game and satisfaction is often an obstacle for the miracles in sports. Of course, that is only a very small reason of me going with this bet. Barcelona are invincible home and not only do they have no home defeats, but none of their opponents lost by less than five goals too. They beat the complete Flensburg by 9 goals after being down at half time, had an 8-goal lead against Kolding at half time (6 in the end), 5 against Aalborg (7 in the end). When it comes to Spanish league and Cup games, only Logrono and Granollers are opponents worth mentioning. Logrono lost by 11 and 10 goals (7 and 6 at half times), Granollers by 15 (10 at half time). I think Barcelona will have an approach more serious for this game with Zagreb than for any other previous one. A wrong turn in those previous games meant nothing but this time, it could cost them dearly. In the end, they did not show Zagreb respect only through words but through what they did on the floor as well. For the first time this season, Pascual kept Karabatic on the floor for 60 minutes, while Rutenka didn't get any time because, I guess, Pascual found him too slow for the aggressive Zagreb youth. Barca did win the first game, but I'm sure they'll go full throttle here, especially defense, where they are known for holding back a bit. Zagreb were limited to 22 or less goals in 6 out of 7 Champions League away games, with Kiel being the only exception (Zagreb scored 27). That is the best proof of their offense incapability. They are now set to meet the top European team in their most important game of the season. Can we expect a brilliant offense performance by Zagreb today? No, I don't expect them to go over 10-11 points in the first half (which is also a great bet if available to you). Will Vujo manage to save Zagreb from a greater debacle in the second half, that I don't know. But it's very likely Barca will take a big lead early and settle the game. Finally, Barca had this at half time in Zagreb (14-10). The bet is available at Bwin, Unibet/888bet, Sportingbet, and Bet 365. It will be even more widely available in live betting. Details

After the winter break Kiel, with the exception of being kicked out of the cup by Lowen, are playing very dominantly, and this especially goes for the defense where with 3-2-1 and 6-0 they're pulverizing their opponents. Out of 15 matches, only Melsungen and Bietgheim, with the mentioned Lowen, surpassed the 26 goals margin. But we're talking about meetings i which the winners were know before the end and in which they relaxed before the end of the match. Today Kiel can't afford such luxury; the match is first and I don't doubt they will pump up their defense and push until the end of the match. Szeged showed they're not a mild opponent against Lowen, but I think Kiel's defense will be somewhat firmer, and that a team in which Bombac and Balogh are main stars are still too weak to score against Kiel. Dunkweque twice left them under this margin, Aalborg too, Kielce in Szeged in a very firm match as well, and recently in Veszprem they were left at 24. It obvious that Bombac and Balogh can't score against firm and physically more powerful defenses. On the other hand, the Hungarians are careful before Kiel, they are full of careful offense, and the last thing they want is to be shamed by Kiel in front of their fans All in all, I don't expect rushing around, nor that they can pierce Kiel on the set defense. Details

Kielce might have the reputation of being a team that prefers a faster paced game but in the hell that Skopje will be today in what is the most important game of the season, I don't think they'll have a say in deciding the pace of this game. Vardar play all their important home games with an extremely tough defense behind which is Sterbik. Kielce will have to fight hard for each and every goal. All the 'great' games in Skopje were under this margin - the round of 16 game with Wisla (31-20), group stage games with Veszprem (23-24) and Lowen (28-25), and SEHA League games in which Vardar went full throttle (wins over Meshkov and Vesprem (28-25 and 28-21). Only super-fast Montpellier barely went over this margin 30-26 in a match in which Vardar took a big lead early on and which was more important for them than for the French side. I'm not counting in the meetings with Celje and Chekhovski Medvedi because Vardar were a huge favorite there and didn't do their best, especially in defense. Wisla 20, Veszprem 24 and 21, Lowen 25 - that is how much Vardar conceded home. I definitely don't expect Kielce to go close to 30 today. The Polish league games aside, Kielce went over this margin only in the opening Champions League game with Schaffhausen. The other five games, including the last one against Montpellier, finished at between 52 and 55 goals. Their back players mostly has a few kilos and a few years too many (Bielecki, Jurecki, Tkaczyk, Zorman, Buntić are all over 30, some well over) and there just isn't enough mobility there to avoid the fight with the Balkans-Russian mix at Vardar. On the other hand, Kielce are very tough in defense, have two very good goal keepers, and I don't think scoring will be easy for Vardar either. I'm not going with higher stake only because the Polish team has a few players that like that sometimes take shots quickly but also because Kielce's coach 'came up' with Vardar's top player and coach. The player is his son, the other one his assistant coach and he might try and trick them in a way we cannot anticipate at this point. The material he has to work with, though, is not really good for any unexpected options. The team under at Kielce is also a great option, maybe every the best one but we'll go with the total under because it's more widely-available. Details

''They told me I need to get this team running. I know the team I have and that would have been stupid. They are too young, they would have made too many mistakes. Who ever tried to outrun Paris and Kiel lost. I can get them to outrun Umag, because in that case, I am Barcelona'' Zagreb's coach Vujovic said recently something everyone already knows. Only the fast-paced Logrono managed to get Zagreb at over 60 goals in the CL home game. Kiel did it in Germany in a game Zagreb didn't even believe to have a shot. The other 8 Zagreb CL games finished under this margin and not only that. In fact, they all finished under 50 goals, some of them well under 50 (one with Kolding under 40). The significant SEHA league games with close rivals (Veszprem, Vardar, Tatran, Meshkov, Metalurg) all finished under 50 as well. Vujovic has 19 extremely keen players who can't wait to take on Barcelona today. I'm sure Zagreb will get this game in their rhythm and their level of toughness and no one can avoid that, not even the might Barca. I expect the Catalan team to struggle for each goal because Zagreb always seem to have an extra player in defense. Barcelona have only 4 unders at this margin this year, but I'm not worried about that. Their Spanish league games get finished even before starting, most CL games are no different either. Most of those game, Barcelona didn't try their best, especially in defense. The first key game, the one to Aalborg away was the first one in which they went full throttle on the defensive end and Aalborg finished with 11 goals (the game finished at total of 42, the second-leg at only 51). I believe Zagreb will manage to slow down the pace just like Aalborg and as additional reason, I can think of one Spanish league game which Barcelona barely managed to win. The opponents were Benidorm, who surprised Barca with deep and aggressive defense, limiting them to 10 goals in the first half. The game finished at 53. To sum up, Barcelona's maximum focus in defense, Zagreb's limited offense, and the fact they use up a lot of energy in defense and will want to bring the pace down will make it very difficult for the Croatian team to score 25 goals. On the other hand, I don't think Barca will finish with 30 or more at the Arena where Kiel and PSG were limited to 25 and 24, respectively. Under is the choice here. Details

"Everything has to come together for us to beat Kiel," was what was heard from Lowen a month ago when they hosted Kiel in the cup. It worked, and they won. Not today. Not only because Kiel are in an even better form, feeling very confident, and this match is more important, but also because, and that's the key, Kiel are playing at home. Lowen lost all (semi)important away matches this season - Szeged, Celje, Veszprem, Skoplje, even the small Erlangen and Bergischer. Vardar and Szeged even embarrassed them at home, and the only real away win was against Flensburg. Kiel, on the other hand, have a perfect ratio at home, 22 wins. Putting aside Lubbecke and Erlangen's struggles, all bigger rivals were taken seriously, and went home without a chance. All in all, this pick can be summed up in one sentence - Kiel are a level better than Lowen. The fact that they struggled against them or Flensburg in the last years, or struggled in Europe and Germany at the beginning of the season because of the injuries and the Wednesday-Saturday rhythm, those factors are gone now. They're complete, and they look terrifying - there's no weak spots in the offense, and everyone can afford a bad day because the substitutes are world class. Comparing the players, Lowen are better only with their goalie and the left wing, but the back line, where the handball matches are decided, Kiel are two levels above. I'd dare to say that nobody of the three Du Rietz-Schmid-Petterson, could get into Kiel's back line rotation. This tells you plenty about their quality - their substitute back line is Jicha - Palmarsson - Vujin. Do they even need a coach? And when it comes to facing that offensive quality, they're playing a fantastic 3-2-1 defense that shamed many rivals in the winter break. They've also got a 6-0 formation ready. If they can't work it with 3-2-1, they change to 6-0, if Duvnjak isn't doing well, Jicha comes in... Lowen don't have that, and can't match Kiel with their width or quality. Kiel are just crushing all their opponents, they don't have a weak spot, and the audience will push them towards the title. I don't give Lowen even the smallest benefit of the doubt that they can do anything here. Actually, I think that Kiel will get to about 15-10 by the half-time, and easily celebrate the title with the audience in the second part... Details

Both teams will go full throttle here, there's no doubt about it. Champions League games are not until two week from now, Veszrem are playing home and Zagreb bursting with confidence after the great games against Kolding. Zagreb will win the Croatian league for sure and most likely not be able to knock out Barcelona from CL, which leaves SEHA League as their only more realistic goal this season. Zagreb played all of their important games at less than 50 goals, and all of their CL away games as well (49, 43, 48, 42, and 44) including those against efficient PSG and fast-paced Logrono. The home game with PSG ended at 49 and SEHA League games against tough opponents finished well under (Vardar 25-22 and Veszprem 21-24 and 22-27). The first match with Vardar is not relevant since it was played after Kiel and ahead of Paris. Also, the two games against Tatran back when the Slovaks were still competitive, can be added to mix as well (46 and 47 goals). Zagreb will try and fight Veszprem back through tough defense and careful game, while Veszrem have one of the best defenses in Europe. Veszprem key offense players Ilić - Chema - Nagy - Sulić are 140 years old (35 on average), which means Vujovic's players will try and stop their attacks at a distance far from the goal, stopping their flow in offense. Most of the close games Veszprem played this season, which is not much, finished with very little goals. On top of the two h2h with Zagreb, there's also meetings with Vardar in Skopje (21-28 and 24-23), with Celje away (24-21), Lowen home 27-24. This will be a war, I don't think Veszprem will score more than 26 or 27 goals, Zagreb more than 21, 22. All options are therefore good - total under, both team unders, and halves under. Not even the 48.5 margin is excessive. Details

Last week these teams played at 39 goals, the teams are the same, circumstances very similar, and I don't see why they should score 10 more goals today. Bookmakers usually have a mark under which they don't go in terms of low odds, which is why here we have a margin that is 3-4 goals above the realistic one. Zagreb are playing very tough, hard defense since Vujović arrived, and Kolding got a taste of that in the first match where they had to work hard for every goal. Zagreb play even tougher in away matches. Against an offensively potent team such as Paris they played a 49 goal match in a far less important match, they played at 43 against quick Logrono, at 48 against Meshkov, and 42 against Metalurg. With the exception of the away match against Kiel, which the Germans managed to speed up and Zagreb came to get an honourable defeat, Zagreb play tough matches, and none of their previous matches had the importance of this one. Apart from the one against Kiel, Zagreb haven't scored more than 22 goals in any of their Champions League away matches. Apart from the fatigue of playing hard defense and slower tempo, the cause are limitations on offense against a set defense and the lack of easy goals. I see no reason for them to score more against Kolding today in their match of the season on their own court. Kolding have the defense to limit Zagreb to 20. Although they play faster this season, their derbies and important matches are usually tough games, and I expect a game like the ones against BSV (24-20 and 25-16), Flensburg (20-27), Holstebro (24-19), Alingsas (23-19), Mors (23-19), Aalborgom (20-20 and 17-16). I don't think there are similarities with Wisla, a much faster team than Zagreb, or other quick teams such as Barca, Skjern or the first, blowout match against Flensburg. Zagreb have a style more similar to BSV or Aalborg, and I expect this to end closer to 40ish, not 50+ goals. Details

I'm not sure whether it's easy or difficult to be writing a tip that can be explained with a single sentence - France are simply one level ahead of Spain. Hats off to Spain for not dropping a single point but what they will be faced with today is out of this world. Spain play great defense but they will struggle a lot against the French defense. To get past the wall made of six extremely tough and tactically well-trained players and then face Omeyer - that's almost impossible to handle. Spain struggled against Belarus, couldn't score a goal for the last 7 minutes against Brazil (!) to win by two goals, scored only 8 goals in a half against Qatar, while Slovenia sent their substitutes to take on Spain. Defense and transition is what saved them in every game, not offense. They don't have great talent on that end of the floor, Aguinagalde is great, but everyone else is just good and nothing special compared to Karabatic. Maqueda is the worse of the three Spanish back players and Omeyer left him at 2 goals in 12 shots in the last head-to-head meeting last year. French took an early lead in that match and then allowed Spain to get back in the game. I think that is the most Spain can do - make the complicated but not able to win it. It was horrible to see how helpless Slovenia and Argentina were in the start of their games with France. Slovenia scored their 2nd goal 14 minutes into the game, Argentina 11 minutes in. Spain didn't do much better in that head-to-head last year when they scored only 2 goals in the first 12 minutes (7-2). Spain's first half team under is therefore not a bad option (12-5), but the widely-available French win is my option here. Details

Gudmundsson's debut as head coach at Denmark started with a slip in the group stage and finished with the 'stupid' goal conceded to Spain in the last second that saw his team end the race for the title. But, I don't think he will fail to see Denmark secure qualifying matches for the Olympics. Their first chance for it is today against the least-demanding of the four opponents fighting for spots 5 through 8. Denmark struggled greatly with tough and aggressive defenses that would keep their top players away from the goal. Argentina and Spain limited them to 24 goals and even though Germany is not as aggressive, they are definitely better than Slovenia. Slovenia proved they don't have the toughness necessary for this level and I don't see how they could stop Hansen and other Danes today. Danish defense is good enough to stop the fast Slovenians and limiting them to 9-meter shooting, which Slovenia doesn't have. The game these two teams played ahead of this WC was the excellent proof of everything I just said. Denmark took a huge lead by half time and ended 10 goals ahead (36-26) despite resting most of the top players in the second half. This game is taking place on neutral grounds but I don't think that can change things much, not even with Zorman. Denmark beat them 31-25 last April and 35-30 ahead of the WC in Spain. Denmark are a much better team, won all of their three games by 6 or more goals and I'm sure they won't let this meeting to go into another dramatic finish. All the options are good, half time handicap (-1.5) might be even better, but I believe Denmark to go over 30 goals easily. But, I'm going with the option that is most widely-available - handicap at game's end. Details

Scube went 5/7 against Macedonia, 5/6 against Brazil, 5/6 against Qatar, 4/5 against Belarus, 2/3 against Chile, and 0/1 against Spain. Under seems like a dangerous choice, doesn't it? Still, I don't think those games compare to this one. Slovenia are now to face the impenetrable French defense, behind which is Omeyer. Brazil's deep set defense and Qatar were a perfect match for Skube. Macedonia played bad defense and allowed him to take shots from the 8-meter distance, which horrible Ristoski on the goal couldn't save. France are a completely different thing. They are strong enough to stop Scube from getting past them and fast enough to prevent him shots from the 9-meter distance. Skube will need to work extremely hard for every goal and the competition at back positions won't help much. Cehte was back for the Macedonia game to start it and score two goals in five attempts. Skube came on 15 minutes into the game, started scoring and stayed in. Denich will need Cehte's 9-meter shots today and many more players like Skube are at his disposal. I don't think he's get more than 40 minutes on the floor today, maybe not even that many. That is not enough for an over against the kind of a team France are. Details

Since the EP in Serbia three years ago, Croatia played 40 games at major competitions and lost only 7, 6 of which to the great 4 competition (Spain, Denmark, Spain). Poland are not that level. Croatia beat them at last EC 31-28 despite not dong brilliantly back then either. Poland are 1-5 in the last 10 years against Croatia, having recorded the lone win in 2008. Granted, Croatia have certain struggles here compared to the best years, and have displayed some shortcomings, but I think that this Poland simply doesn't have what it takes to do something today. Germany and especially Denmark controlled their head-to-head games with Poland from start to finish, while Poland barely beat Argentina and Russia. I am least of all fascinated with the Polish win over Sweden last round. Sweden were forced to finish the game with second and third choice back players and the right wing as the right back. They could do absolutely nothing against the Polish 6-0 defense and Poland were basically handed the win.
Poland are quite slow in offense and struggled greatly with the Swedish zone defense, which is what I expect to happen again today. I believe Croatia will force them into turnovers that will be punished in fast breaks, as per usual. I don't think Croatian offense will have much problems against the Polish 6-0 defense, even if they decided to switch to 5-1. Poland aren't Brazil and won't surprise Croatia with deeper-set defense. Poland are here without Jaszka and Lijewski, which makes the difference in quality even greater. Poland are a good match-up for Croatia and I think Goluza's team are on the right patch towards another semifinal. Details