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Two years ago, Barca made a comeback after being down by 7 against Lowen in the Champions League, but that was a different Barca, more powerful with Karabatic, and I would dare say that Kiel are not Lowen. Even though Barca went into this match-up as favorites, because of the Kiel's situation, the first game showed that the power balance is not as it seems, and that Kiel are at least equal to them. Actually, when we compare player quality - Barca have more width, but it is questionable whether they have more quality. Kiel has a better middle-back, Barca pivot and left-back - and it was Jallouz and Jicha who slipped up, while Canellas played one of his best games of the season. If Canellas plays the same way today, Kiel will with him, Duvnjak and Vujin/Weinhold have a team against which no one can be this big favorites. Barca have, in the Champions League this season, demolished Montpellier twice, Kristianstadt and Kolding, and they are the three weakest teams in the group. They played two even games against Kielce, Vardar, Szeged, all Lowen. Kiel have fallen apart a few times this season, but under different circumstances when it didn't matter if they lose by 1 or 10. Barca do not have the quality for these odds, and I expect an even game in which Kiel should advance. Details

Norway possess enough quality and the game style that could see them crush Bahrein by more than 10 goals. I think they will also have enough motivation for that. Why, you might wonder, when they are set to face Croatia and Norway in the next two days in what will be crucial games? I think it's very logical for them to try and make the tough task of beating Denmark and Croatia easier - by getting a point. Come Sunday, Norway could be regretting not beating Bahrain by as many goals as possible and they will not want that.
All of that aside, Norway have proved to be one of top European teams - they beat France and Croatia and had Germany pushed against the wall even though their top player broke his arm. They are playing a great game with great defense and good transition. They have two very good right backs and the entire backfield is good. They can make substitution without losing quality.
Bahrain have not played anywhere but in Asia the last two years and those results aren't really relevant. Qatar was the closest to Norway's quality they faced. They lost to them by 9 at Asian games, by 7 in a friendly, and by 5 home at the Asian championship when the spectators helped them a lot. Two and a half years ago at WC they lost to Russia by 7, to 14 by Denmark and by 10 to Iceland.
Norway have almost exclusively met good teams the past two years. The only teams that might be compared to Qatar are the Netherlands, whom they beat by 8 goals and by 14 goals, and Turkey, whom they beat by 9 home and by only 4 away). That means Norway can trash their opponents.
I expect Norway to dominate physically and to score a lot of easy goals. They beat Iceland by 7 goals in a friendly a few days ago. Iceland are much better than Bahrain.
The -3,5 half time handicap is good because it seems like Norway will finish the first half with a 5-6 goal lead. But I'll go with the total mostly because they will be motivated to beat Bahrain by as many goals as possible. The Arab mentality is such that their game falls apart when things start going south. Details

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I don't like betting against the market but I do understand why the odds at Kiel are on the rise. They are decimate by injuries and got trashed by Flensburg last weekend. That is why Wisla's debacle against Celje went unnoticed. Only because of the Slovenian's indifference has that game not finished with a 15-goal difference. Wisla did great early in the season but they are not at that level anymore. Wisla's bosses sold their top player Zelenovic to Magdeburg and didn't even make a lot of money since they have to pay for his replacement. Their top-quality coach Cadenas is leaving at the end of the season. Zelenovic was the key player in their offense but he also played good defense. Wisla are now horrible in offense which their games against Celje and the decimated Zagreb proved. Everything comes down to two middle backs. The first one is Zitnikov who is not doing like at EC and Tarabocchia, who is good but not as good as Kiel's players. The important thing about Kiel is who is not going to play rather than who will. Their backfield players are 2-3 levels above Wisla's. I don't think Kiel will take anyone lightly at the moment. They beat Wisla by 14 goals home. true, they had more players at their disposal back then but I would be very surprised if Wisla puts up a good fight here. The total handicap is a good choice as well (the -3,5 especially). You should play that if you don't have this bet available. I will still go with the first half handicap because of Kiel's bad subs. I expect them to be 4-5 up at half time and that is why this is a better option. Details

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France barely beat Norway home last week and then Onesta left Balingen and Creteil in to lose the final part of the Qatar game. But, France then met Denmark in a game in which Karabatic proved he's ready and that the absence of some player won't matter since the key player is there. I expect Karabatic and his brother to stop former teammate Lazarov. I think the French defense will stop Macedonia and that they will struggle to score. That happened in the last two recent games in France (18-8 a year ago, 17-10 in a qualifying game). France were only two goals up in Skopje, but that was due to atmosphere that will not happen today. France tend to settle the game in the first half against teams like Macedonia, especially at big competitions. I think Karabatic will get his team 6-7 goals up in the second half and sit through the rest of the game. He will be crucial in the games to come and that's another reason for France to avoid any complication here. I'm sure Obrvan would like to skip this game as his team has to look for their chance against Serbia and maybe Poland. Details

Instead of improving the segments that weren't working perfectly, the new Croatian coach started changing things that worked best like defense and discipline in offense. It is therefore not surprising Croatia played their worst game ever against Slovenia and that the ambitions aren't that high ahead of this championship. That is the only reason the stake is not 7 here. I would have gone with that instead of 5 if one of the former Croatian coaches were in charge here. Balarus never seemed this bad. Their game comes down to Rutenka, who is just a shadow of his former self. He couldn't have done everything single-handedly even when he was at his best against the top Croatians. They won't be able to stand up to Croatia today either. The test games Belarus played proved that. They first lost to Argentina by 7 goals, then got limited to 6 goals in the first half against Hngary and then lost to Russia by 10 goals. They also lost to Egypt, and then to even weaker Argentina again and allowed the Dutch a point. They managed to get a point against Russia, which was the only good thing in all the test games. The disappointment against Slovenia will probably force the Croatians into trying really hard at the start. Aside coach's attempts to be original, the difference in quality is too big here. Croatia is a bad matcup for Belarus. Their defense will be tough to get past and I don't think Belarus will do better here than they did against Hungary (15-6) and twice against Russia in the first half (17-13, 16-12). I expect the Croats to settle this in the first 20 minutes. Details

I won't try and find excuses in the fact this is the first test game. In fact, I see that as an opportunity. Granted, there will be changes on both teams and even though Vujovic said the two games against Croatia will be the proper test, Slovenia didn't put him in charge to bring about a relaxed attitude. They put him in charge to make Slovenia a team that wants to compete and that's what he'll do. I expect him to push him players all game long and all of them will have to do their best to earn a place on the team. Slovenia are better than Macedonia individually and most importantly, have a lot more players, which will allow them to stay at a higih pace throughout the game. That is not the case on Macedonia. As soon as Kiro Lazarov is out, their offense gets bland. It's not reasonable for him to play all the time since they have a game tomorrow. Slovenia are doing very well home, on top of everything. Only Sweden managed to leave Slovenia with a draw. Slovenia won the other 8 games in the last 2 years by at least 5 goals, among some top level teams like Hungary (+6), and so rather good ones like Slovakia (+6), Egypt (+14), Algeria (+13), Latvia (+17). If we add the 'Vujovic effect' to the mix, I don't think Macedonia will manage to get away with less than a 5-goal deficit, especially since they record bad defeats to top teams away rather frequently (Croatia -8, France -9, Denmark -8).





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PSG has in the last few years played under the renome of certain values of its players - but at home they were rarely bad, especially this season. They're max in in every match, they won all home half-times, and only twice out of 10 times they didn't cover the handicap. This is what it looked like in the Champions League: Kiel +6, Veszprem +4, Zagreb +10 and Wisla +3, and this is the home championship: Cesson +9, Creteil +4, Dunkerque +4, Chabery +1, St. Raphael +7, Nimes +4. Only Wisla made it in the Champions League with three goals of difference, with a lot of missed chances, and the experienced Chambery with a more relaxed approach. Celje are no ediocre team, they covered this one against three big favorites - Flensburg, Veszprem, Kiel, but... Flensbug took the lead with 12-4 and then by the end they allowed 13-10. Veszprem went in easy after they crushed Celje at home in the first part; they were even losing for the first 20 minutes, but then in five minutes with a 5-0 series they showed how strong they are. Kiel were also easy at first, and this year's Kiel and PSG can't even be compared, quality-wise. After the disappointment in Hugary and Noka's criticism for the second half, I don't see the French approaching this one badly. He was in all of the first halves of home matches at 200%, they didn't lower the pressure not even during the big lead against Kiel, and especially against Zagreb. If Celje don't get that much pressure, it's going to be in the second half. Details

Medvedi stunned Logrono in the first Champions League game when Grams destroyed them through some great saves. The Spanish side couldn't make a comeback in the finish but I think what we'll see today in La Rioja will be different. They home team will open this fiercely, there will be no underrating of the opponents and there will be no surprise. Logrono are always good home and always beat their opponents as much as they can there. Chekovski, on the other hand, are without one of their top players )Kotov) today and these points mean nothing to them. Logrono sometimes struggle away and record slips but they are very predictable home. No one lost by less than 6 goals there this season! When it comes to the CL opponents, Vojvodina lost by 9, Tatran by 8, Porto by 7. Chekovski are definitely not more powerful than Porto and tatran. None of the rivals from Asobal League lost by under 6 goals there, even through Longorno are not as serious in those games as they are in CL. The Russian side lost all three away games so far (by 6 goals to Tatran, by 4 against Porto and lost even to Vojvodina). Logrono are two levels above Vojvodina and one level above Tatran and Porto and very close to Meshkov, the team that beat Medvedi by 6 goals in Russia. Logrono are looking for vengeance today and need points for the next stage. They often crush their opponents and the fact Medvedi are without Kotov will help too. He is one of their key backfield players, who plays both defense and offense. Details

Two years ago the much better Montpellier crushed the much weaker PSG to win the title. Last season, significantly better Montpellier compared to this one today failed to win the race for the title against PSG: They lost the final battle 28-32 home. Montpellier had Tej, Grebille and Kavticnik last season, who are not there today. They also had Simonet in a much better form. PSG now have Karabatic, who brought extra quality and character and Serdarusic on the bench. I think PSG now have an even greater quality difference compered to Montpellier. I don't see how Montpellier could stand up to them here. Their matches against teams that are close to PSG's level prove it - (Barcelona -10, Kielce -7, Vardar -5) . Montpellier were able to stand up to those teams only for one period in the game. Granted, Vardar was the only home game, but they lost even that in handicap. They then lost to Nimes, Dunkerque and struggled with Kolding. They did great against Chambery and St. Raphael away, but those are not games that can compare to this one. Noka's team has only one defeat so far - against Flensburg, but I don't Montpellier will be a threat. The handicap is set low and Hansen and others won't even consider letting go if the goal difference is 5 or less goals. They didn't cover this -25,5 in every win (like in Celje or against St. Raphael and Nimes in the Cup), but those were the games in which PSG were heavy favorites and didn't mean much. The absence of Luka Karabatic won't be relevant since PSG have enough toughness in defense even without him. He is the weakest link in offense anyway. This game is something else, this is the match for the title and I have no doubt that Karabatic and others will do their absolute best. Montpellier is the club where he grew as a player but it's also the club that didn't stand by him after the match-fixing scandal. Even if they did, Karabatic wouldn't be any less fierce today. Details

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Goppingen is the base of this bet. They recorded only one over this season in 9 games (against the second-tier Bietigheim in the Cup when they settled the game early on). Most of Goppingen's friendly games finished as unders, just like all of the 7 Bundesliga games. We cannot say the reason for that are the opponents because they faced Eisenach, who play most productive games in Bundesliga, Lubbecke, who concede a lot of goals and take fast shots in attack: There were two title contenders Lowen (got limited to 25) and Kiel (limited to 21 goal) and Burgdorf, Bergischer and Balingen, who can easily go over 60 goals). None of those teams managed to play at 53 goals against the visitors. They conceded most in the two defeats (26 and 25 goals) while not conceding over 22 in any other game. That is no coincidence. Goppingen have a very good defense with two good goal keepers. They are a well-experienced team that doesn't rush into anything in offense and have to play with three right-handed players in the backfield since Nyokas is out. Stuttgart played Gummersbach on Sunday (37-37), most of their games were overs at this margin but we have to look at what's important. They struggled greatly against good defenses and scored 16 against Lowen in the Cup, 20 in the championship, 20 against Fuchse, 19 against Flensburg. I expect the same kind of problems today against Goppingen's defense. If Kiel scored 21 against them, then this opponent should not get close to 25. On top of everything, this is a local derby match, the arena will be packed, which is another reason to believe that this is not the day when Goppinge will record their first over. Details

There is one interesting detail to this game - Leipzig are sending a helicopter to get their announcer so that he makes to this game for the atmosphere not to suffer. That means Leipzig will not just give up without putting up a fight. Magdeburg and Hamburg already lost here and Flensburg won't have t easy either. I don't expect such a game to be fast-paced. Leipzing recorded only three overs at this margin this season. First time in the Hamburg game home, which fell apart n the last ten minutes, second time against Fuchse, who took a big lead and settled the game early on and third time with Stuttgart at exactly 54 points. The game against fast-paced Gummersbach finished at only 46 goals, the one against Lemgo at 53, and the Cup game against Fuchse at 50...Leipzig have a very good defense with a very good goal keeper Putera. The offense, on the other hand, is not that good or in possession of great potential. 8 out of 23 goals for Leipzig against Gummersbach were from the seven-meter line. Lepzig's offense struggled and today shouldn't be any different as they get faced with Andersson and Mollern and Flensburg's defense. Vranjes' team has 5 overs in 12 official games but interestingly, all of them were recorded in home games, where Flensburg dominate, play fast pace and do much better in offense. They scored 23 goals against Kiel, 24 against Veszperm but got limited to 21 against Wetzlar and 22 goals against Hamburg in Bundesliga. They scored 29 against Bergischer, 3 or 4 of which in the last two minutes (the game finished at 51). Flensbuurg's away games aren't even close to an over. They allowed Veszprem to score 28, Kiel 27 and then Wetzlar 24. Leipzig can cause them just as much trouble as those teams home and that is why I don't expect Flensburg to finish at 30+ goals. Also, Lepzig are not very likely to score 25+ against Flensburg's defense, which is why the total under is the best option here. Details

I normally rarely bet on final outcomes of close matches but I thin the odds are off here and I'll therefore make an exception. I believe the home team's coach when he says that he made sure his team's form is at its best for this game but I still cannot turn a blind eye to the fact they are without a win for 7 games. Aside the double failure against Meshkov and the embarrassment against Veszprem and even the the defeat to Nexe home, but a team that wants to record good results simply has to beat Strumica or Spartak home by 5 goals regardless of the current form. Vojvodina simply don't have the quality to stand up to teams like Porto. Porto beat them in both meetings last season. Granted, the one in Novi Sad was not easy but they won in the end. Vojvodina do not have top Serbian goal keeper Kocic and middle back Elezovic now, meaning the difference in quality between Porto and them is even greater now than it was a year ago. The game against Medvedi proves nothing since the opponents couldn't count on some important players. Also, Medvedi are not as good as Porto. Home team's coach himself admitted that Porto are a better team. In order to get into CL second stage, Porto will need two away wins and they are going to Serbia to get one. Novi Sad is an ideal place for it. The team that fails to win points here will have a tough time getting through and Porto's players know that, which is why they all talk about winning as the only way. Details

Not even coach Mahre is able to find good aspects of his team's game. They constantly fail to come up with good game in offense, while at the same time the goal keepers perform horribly. What to say about a team whose most efficient test game was 28 goals, to a second-tier team. Since the start of the season, they scored 25, 25, 23, and 22. Mahe had to admit that his backfield had a 1-17 shooting in the Montpellier game and that the new players didn't do as expected. The feeble Trembay beat them by 4 goals and scored 29 for the first time. Touslose beat Chartres by 7 and Montpellier by 6. Don't be fooled by that 6-goal difference against Montpellier since the opponents were already decimated. Chartres' goal keeping duo has a total of 23 saves so far against relatively weak opponents. 23 is what Omeyer had in a single Champions League against Wisla. I don't think Chartres' offense will finally start doing brilliantly against Karabatic, Hansen and others. PSG did have a tough game against Wisla but I don't expect Karabatic and Hansen to spend 60 minutes on the floor anyway. I expect Noka to get more time in the game and that PSG will take a 6, 7-goal lead. I don't see what Mollgard, Narcisse, Onufrijenko, Vori and others wouldn't get the job done. They didn't play much on Sunday but they're still too good for Mahe's squad. Mahe himself admitted to already thinking about the Ivry game on Sunday. I don't' see why this game should be any different than the one from preseason which Paris won 33-21. Goal difference under 10 would be a surprise for me. Details

Kiel are obviously struggling this year without Jicha and Palmarsson, but the teams they struggled against are still much better than Besiktas, especially Besiktas they're hosting today. The guests were evened out to Celje until the 48th minute of the first match, then they fell apart and lost by six, at home, against a team much weaker than Kiel are. It should be mentioned that Celje's best player (Zarabec) wasn't playing. What makes this bet great are the guests' injuries. Ninčević and Rašić are definitely out, and Dačević's been injured, so whether he'll play or not will be decided before the match. He scored six against Celje, and was the best scorer of the team last season, next to Ninčević and Ozbahar. If he doesn't play, the offense will be solved through Pribak and Done, maybe a few balls will be left to Ozbahar. So, it's easily possible that they'll be completely powerless against Kiel's defense, and Kiel punish that with fastbreaks. I doubt Gislason will have the courage to not start the match with his best lineup, and I expect Kiel to get a big advantage pretty soon. I don't think Besiktas could use them getting relaxed by the end. Actually, I expect the opposite to happen - they don't have the width for the rotation, and the main players - especially those like Done and Pribak - don't burst with strength. Besides, they lost to Celje in the last quarter of the match. Kiel crushed Magdeburg by nine here last weekend. And if Besiktas lost at home by six to Celje, with Dačević healthy, I don't see how they can stay under ten goals difference here. I can only hope Kocić has a good day and saves them from a bigger disaster. Details

My favorite pick here would be Kolding's team under, or Kolding's team under in the first half-time, but considering those bets aren't widely available, we'll go for the second option - the half-time total under, even though the match total under is a great pick, too. This is clear as a day - both teams have great defenses, and Kolding's offense also sucks. Not counting the last match against Holstebro who are playing really fast this season, and who made Kolding's set offense look clueless - they scored 12, 10, 11, 13, 9, and 11 goals. 13 was against the team next to last in the league table, Nordsjeallend, the serious team of Skjern left them at 11, and the most serious defense of these, BSV's, at only 9 goals. Twice, they had a half-time under because they conceded too many goals, to Midtjilland and Kristiansand. They're hosting Lowen now, who conceded 8, 9, 11, 7, 8, 14, 11, 12, 9 goals in their first half-times. Magdeburg scored 14 at home, and ended up with 23, Barcelona scored 9 at the half-time, 21 total. In ten matches they only went over 49.5 three times, all three when the match would fall apart. But, let's put numbers aside. I don't expect them to run much, this match is important for both teams, they have rock solid defenses, and Kolding's offense are catastrophic. I don't expect them to score over 10 in the first half-time, and they're very capable of keeping Lowen under 15, with their great defense and Hvidt. I expect this match to end up in a big under, but the half-time is a better option because Lowen could get a bigger advantage in the second part, and the match would lose its intensity then. Details