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Even though this is a duel in the first round, there should be no doubts about the winner. The home team is a significant favourite, the transfer window went great as they kept all important players from last season and brought in a few who should be a true reinforcement. Many see the Novy Urengoy team as a dark horse of the championship because they've set together a great team with every position doubled by a good substitution. In comparison, the Tyumen team doesn't look any different from last year, maybe even a bit weaker. Judging by the games in the preseason, Fakel is in better form. They won against Tyumen in the Siberian Cup game on neutral ground two weeks ago with a 3-1 score and a 21 point difference. The interesting thing is that these two teams closed the regular part of the season last year by a game in which Fakel convincingly won as the home team with a 3-0 (25-16; 25-11; 25-13). It wasn't a game of no importance; they fought for the seventh place and to avoid the current champion Dinamo from Kazan in the quarterfinal of the play-off. In the past, Fakel were more successful. They played eight times and Fakel won 6 times. Tyumen were never victorious in Novy Urengoy, never won a point and won a set in an away game just once. I can't see why today should be any different because Fakel is stronger than ever and I will back up their game with a handicap win. Details

Atletico Mineiro has delivered on these kind of bets so we should try it again now that they are complete and the opponent is a club who, alongside Nautico, has the worst defense in the league. Statistically, Atletico scored 17 goals in 9 matches on their home turf and this bet has passed in the last 10 out of 11 home games in all competitions and the cup as well as with Botafoga and Copa Libertadores. 10 days ago the same bet was won against Coritiba in the 26th minute. Coach Cuca still hasn't given up on the battle for the title and that's what he's using to keep his team motivated until the end of the season although they do not lack motivation, especially in matches on home turf and looking at the points, Vasco is a direct competitor because Atletico are four points away from the 18th place which is held by Vasco.
Vasco is in a crisis and they are going into this match with three consecutive losses in which they received more than one goal each time. This was the case on Wednesday when they hosted Vitorija who have turned the match to their advantage in the last 10 minutes by scoring two times. Replacing the uncertain goalkeeper Diogo Silva and the defense "helped" with both goals did not help either. With the first goal after a flipper in the penalty area, and with the second one because the goalkeeper could not have reacted better to a 25 meter shot. On Vascos home games there are 3.80 goals per match and they received 22 goals in 10 away games which is an average that covers this tip.
For a bet that has passed the last 10/11 in Atletico's home matches or, looking at a longer period, in the last 24 out of 27, 1.74 i more than an acceptable course. Details

By looking at the standings the odds on the La Plata derby are correct ones, but I cannot completely agree with that. First of all, it is a derby, and Argentina derbies are specific thing. Hosts are usually always in advantage when they play on the home stadium, but when we talk about derby clashes, then the chances for the home team are at least 20% higher. We have to take into consideration the fact that, for this season, visiting fans arrivals are forbidden in Argentina, and so Estudiantes will have a huge support from the fans. My opinion is that the hosts are also much better team and they should fight for the top of table this season. Yes, they do have some problems sometimes with converting their chances, but on this stadium they have a very good record.
Gimnasia just entered the league, they are playing above all expectations, but lately their weaknesses are starting to emerge. First they entered the crisis period, which ended with the home win against Colon with great deal of luck. The guests were the better team, created more chances, but in the end Gimnasia took the three points. However, the luck is something that comes and goes, you cannot always rely on it.
The last time when Estudiantes hosted the derby they celebrated with 7-0. O.K., that was in some different time and circumstances and today I'm not expecting such demolition from them, but I do expect them to win. Estudiantes have no problems with absences, and Juan Veron is a great plus for them. Whenever he's somewhere around, doesn't even need to be on the pitch, red and white are playing much better. The odds on hosts victory are great and I will take them for one smaller stake.
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The match is played at San Siro and there Milan, "by default", doesn't lose it's matches against Napoli, but at this moment to make them favorites for this one would be crazy thing to do. The Milan team is playing well this season but has huge problems with injuries in key positions. Key playmakers Kaka and Montolivo are out, as well as important strikers El Shaarawy and Pazzini, center back Bonera and great young fullback De Scigli. In addition to that, they are playing every three days and their performance is unconvincing. They scraped a point against Torino, and against Celtic they managed to take the full pray with a lot of luck. On the other hand Napoli plays some great football under Benitez, solid in the defense and quick and swift in the offense. It's difficoult to say who is more dangerous in their attack; Higuain as poacher, or very dangerous Callejon, Hamsik or Insigne who are behind him (Higuain). Napoli has achieved all victories so far, and even though they played against Borussia Dortmund against who they have poor record, they managed to win that one, and it wouldn't be surprising if they achieve a victory today in Milano. Details

I would disagree with the bookmakers and would'n underestimate Slavia's team so much. It's true, their results weren't so great lately, but they changed their coach and that always brings some changes in the squad in terms of motivation, attitude etc. In addition to that, Slavia doesn't have poor squad, the only problem is that they aren't playing the way they should. To be honest, Jablonec are also not playing very well; they have two defeats in a row (three if we count in the defeat against Betis in Europa League), and their coach complains that he had only 13 players on last training session. There are no information about who will start the match, and who won't, but I doubt that all of the missing players will return, as well as those who manage to recover will be in "top" condition. Jablonec managed to record just one home victory when playing at home, and that one was with the minimal margin, and Slavia on the other hand have won their two away matches out of four they played so far, and they lost on two occasions (away) with minimal margin. So, neither Jablonec covered this handicap, nor Slavia lost with handicap, and in the case of Slavia's minimal defeat we have return of funds, even though I'm confident that Slavia will at least scrape a point from this one. For me this is much more even match than the odds suggest. Details

The Vikings have started off the season with two clumsy defeats and I believe they will vent their frustration on the boys from Cleveland, who will be missing their two starters in two vital offensive positions. Quarterback Brandon Weeden is out due to an injury of a thumb on his throwing hand, and running back Trent Richardson was traded to Indianapolis for a first-round draft pick. Clearly, new general manager Michael Lombardi wants to take out the weeds remaining from the old regime and start over, sacrificing another season in the process. The QB starting position will be taken by Brian Hoyer, who was Tom Brady's replacement in the Patriots before transferring to the Steelers in 2012, but he had a short stay there, and then again with the Cardinals. Since he had only 96 passes for 616 yards over four seasons, it's hard to expect that the Browns' offense will be given a new lease of life, especially due to the fact that their running backs Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey are not exactly world class, while new signing Willis McGahee has had barely enough time to change his clothes, let alone learn the plays. It is unrealistic to expect any major contribution from him, even though he is a very good veteran player. The Browns yielded 16 points and a modest 550 yards in their first two games, and I believe that the Vikings' defense is good and motivated enough to keep them under this margin. Details

Robert Griffin III had to undergo several knee surgeries in January and because of them he was uncertain to appear at the start of the season and even though he missed the preparations he did play in the first two matches, leading the offense of the Redskins, but it was obvious he was restrained in his play. His team lost both matches and there is no more room to be careful so I expect Robert Griffin III to be much closer to his last year's performance. Last season he rushed for 815 yards and had seven touchdowns while this season he had only nine carries for 25 yards and he had no runs from zone-read which made him almost unstoppable last season. It is obvious Redskins wanted to spare their franchise quarterback from heavy blows but it is equally obvious they need to change something.
- "It is not about me wanting to run more, I just feel that is something we have to do. If that is what is necessary to win matches then I'm ready to do it" - said Robert Griffin III this week.
Judging by the situation, I doubt that he said this for no reason. That is why I expect him to be more aggressive tonight than in the first two matches and it wouldn't surprise me if he would end up with twice as much yards than this limit shows. Details

The Patriots haven't surpassed this total in either of the last two games, and I don't think they will tonight either, because their problem isn't just lack of coordination, but lack of quality as well. The fact that Julian Edelman caught 20 balls, and the rest of the team 28, only proves this point. Also, 10 of the ball were caught by Danny Amendola, who will probably miss his second game in a row because of groin injury. Tom Brady probably can't wait for tight end Rob Gronkowski to return, he's still recovering from back surgery, and he practiced this week, but isn't certain to play. Brady's frustration was obvious last Thursday against the Jets, when he completed only 19 of 39 passes for 185 yards - his lowest total in three seasons. The Patiots offense is probably missing the versatile running back Shane Vereen the most, since he can also be used as a receiver, especially in the slot position. Although he played only one game, Vereen rushed for 101 yards, which is almost a half of the rushing yards the Patriots produced so far (212). The Bucs defense have allowed a total of 34 points in two games, and they were especially impressive last Sunday against the Saints, whom they limited to 16 points. Darelle Revis and the rest of the Bucs secondary can stop the confused Patriots receivers, and I believe the front seven have enough quality to slow down Stevan Ridley and the versatile Julian Edelman. Details

Italy and Belgium will decide in a direct duel about who will qualify for the quarter finals, and who will have to play more games in the eighth round. Neither team was brilliant in the past two games. The Italians initially struggled against Denmark and only later started to play, while against Belarus they lost a set and only then started to play as they know. It is clear that they are still not tuned in as they are supposed to be, eight players are rookies, and will need some time for their form them reach the desired level. Belgium has played against Belarus as they should, their coach praised the technicians Depestelea, and his organization of attack could bring a lot to Belgium. Yesterday they played poorly against Denmark, but for that they're the only ones to blame. They led 16-11 in the first set and then stopped. Apparently they thought that Denmark would beat itself after they beat them in this year's European League four times 3-0. They have a lot of reserve, and Italy is the opponent that always brings out the best. They did not accidentally win the Europa League without defeat, and now they can definitely attack the Italians, so this is my margin of 170.5 points missed. Bet365 only has this margin while in others it is 177.5. To pass there are needed four sets, and these 177.5 of can be taken, but with lower stakes, while 170.5 is worth a 4 Units stake. Details

The outcome of the Netherlands-Slovenia match had a direct impact on this pick, so we were awaiting that game to end. The Netherlands beat Slovenia and overcame Serbia, who now need a win against Finland, who have already secured the top spot. I don't think the Finland head coach will give a lot of play time to his best players, while this match will decide whether Serbia will qualify from the group stage. Serbia came to Herning as the defending champions, but they are not the first favourites to win the gold. They looked very good in the preparation for the tournament, they beat strong teams, such as Poland and Bulgaria. But they have been disappointing in the tournament so far. They lost the opener to Slovenia, and were two sets down against the Netherlands yesterday. After head coach Kolakovic made some substitutions, Serbia finally started playing. They looked powerful, and the Dutch stood no chance. Kolakovic said that the players need to break free from all the pressure, and that is exactly what the did in this game. After the game, everybody was full of self-confidence and they were adamant that they will continue playing in the same fashion. Finland is without doubt a very good team who have been together for several years, but it would be unwise to tire their top players in a match that is unimportant to them. I believe Serbia will repeat their fantastic performance from their last three sets yesterday. They played like champions ought to, and I expect them to do the same once again, in which case, handicap/spread should be an easy bet. Marathonbet are offering -7, Bet Victor -7,5, and William Hill -8,5. Details

Molde have signed some new players during the summer but they have also sold some important players such as their top goalscorer Agnan and centre-back Forren. But, departure of some important players is still not good enough excuse for poor performances they had this season. The defending champion was expected to win another title this season, but they won only two points in the first seven rounds. Such a bad start changed their expectations - now their main goal is to finish as high as they can on the table and to try to win the national cup. Despite losing some matches while they were playing in the Europa League preliminary rounds, they did start to improve after the bad results in the first rounds of the season. Since the end of May Molde have won seven out of 12 matches they played and they are currently holding 7th position on the league table. They signed some new players and the centre-back Forren had also returned back to Molde. Their forward Gulbrandsen scored four goals in just a few matches and they gained back their confidence after winning against Valerenga and Aelesund.
Sandnes almost got relegated last season (they earned their right to play in the top division through play-offs) and the same was expected this season, too. Although they are currently in good form, they did lost very convincingly to Start (7-0) and to Brann (6-1) in the last couple of months. They won some points against the teams comparable to their own (Sarsborg, Honefoss) and against teams that were significantly weakened at the time they were facing them (Tromso, Stromsgodset). In the last couple of weeks it is clear that their form is dropping, and I don't think they can cause any real troubles for Molde today. Details

I know that derby games are tough bets, as aside from mere statistics and current form motivation plays an important role, transforming a poor team into a formidable rival. But even if we take into account everything that holds significance in every derby, I still get the impression that Besiktas have the upper hand here. If we look at the stats, things are clear. Besiktas have won all their fixtures this season, and they've managed to reach good form even faster by playing European matches, which puts them ahead in that respect as well. Motivation is a vital factor, and there will be no lack of it on both sides, but if I have to pick whose is "stronger", I would pick Besiktas, for two reasons. The first is that they finally have a chance to knock down the champions, extend their lead over them to nine points and make the first step towards a long-awaited title. Besiktas have been living in the shadow of Galatasaray, and even Fenerbahce, but at this point they are ahead of both of their rivals. The second reason is Slaven Bilic. The Croatian manager hasn't forgotten who eliminated him from Euro 2008, when Croatia played perhaps the best football in their history. Slaven Bilic will do everything to outsmart Galatasaray's manager Fatih Terim and knock him out of the title race. The reason number three are fans, and they play a major role in Turkey, both by supporting their own team, as well as by putting pressure on referees, who tend to succumb to it and favor the home team. 68 thousand Besiktas fans will create one hell of an atmosphere. And finally, let me just comment on the away team. Their situation is far from ideal. Their manager has a double job, which is never a good thing, and their heavy defeat against Real Madrid indicates that the current situation at Galatasaray is far from positive. They have the players, they have the stars, but we all know these are all secondary things in a derby, Besiktas will not lose here, and betting 1 on an outcome without a draw represents a good value for a medium stake bet. Details

Tomić is perhaps our biggest disappointment of the Championship. We saw very little from a player that was supposed to carry our center line, and considering the player he is supposed to be dueling with today, I doubt he will manage to surpass his limits. Marc Gasol is the best defensive player of the NBA, and has stopped much stronger and physically more dominant centers than Tomic. Ante is too soft in the duels, we could see that clearly both vs Ukraine and vs Lithuania. Gasol will move him away from the rim and deny him the easy shots, and Tomic was pretty bad from the semi-distance during this championship. He also has a very low percentage from the free throw line, another of his downsides. In the first game of the championship, Tomic scored only three points vs Spain, with 1/4 from the field and 1/2 from the free throw line. More passes should go to Saric today, as Spain is weaker on his position and I don't believe Tomic will score more than eight points. Details

In this tournament, one thing is very distinctive in Spaniards’ game. When they win, they do it with a big point difference, so their victory with a smallest point difference in this tournament was against the Czech Republic in which they celebrated with a +21. Every game which was a play of equals ended with a defeat for Spain. One of the reasons is the fatigue of Marco Gasol, on whom they are too dependent and therefore the Spaniards need to play furiously from the start because they themselves are aware that they must make a big point difference early on not to lose another game. The Spaniards’ quality is far better, especially in key positions, point guard and center. Rubio and Sergio Rodriguez have completely outplayed Ukic in the first game of the two teams, and we can expect the same today. Gasol is physically dominant under the basket and thus Croatia lose their greatest weapon - rebound. Spain’s defense is impenetrable for Croatia, who cannot attack in any way, except with a play by Bogdanovic with his back to the basket for which Spain will surely be ready today. Croats are emotionally drained after the euphoria helped them reach the semi-finals and their fuel is gone. With injuries and accumulated fatigue, a new disaster is waiting to happen today and Spain will certainly not let this opportunity slip away, because it has already happened in this tournament: they were leading by 15 points in the last quarter and eventually lost the game. They will play a concentrated game during all 40 minutes because the stakes are high, and in such a game Croats do not stand a chance. Spaniards have beaten all opponents with 20 or more points and we can expect the same today. Details

With Markota's injury Saric is the only one left from the Croatian "four". He might might play longer because of that, although he already played 20 minutes per game. Saric is not tired since he is the youngest player in the team and is used to playing 40 minutes per game.
Today's match should suit him since the Spanish are weak on his position but perhaps the crucial thing is that the Spanish have Marc Gasol who Tomic can't attack but will instead focus on assists which Saric can take advantage of.
This margin is low and results in just three successful shoots. In a match in which hell get more time on the ground and with an opponent that suits him, Saric is in an obvious over. Details

Home turf is the main weapon of all Cretan teams, as is the case with Ergotelis. Playing against a weaker visiting Panionios, who they have defeated last seven times (3-4-0) regardless of where they played, the least we can expect is that they evade a loss.
The atmosphere is great, the young team is full of confidence and with the added impulse from the stands, I'm sure they wont disappoint. If things get to a bad start, the best players of their lines will be on the bench so they'll have a chance to make things right. Details

I believe our local bookmakers have better guessed odds for under 5.5 goals than international ones. We have duel of two teams that have had excellent defensive performances in the first three rounds. Zilina have not conceded more than two goals (2, 2, 1) and they have their goalie Laco to thank for that, as he's been excellent lately. On average, he concedes 1.68 goals per game and has 95.24 % saves out of 35 shots per game. Everyone who has been following Medvescak will know what Robert Kristan is capable of, the man guarding the net of Nitra. He has had a solid 92.21 % saves and averaged 2.02 goals per game. His defense is a big asset as they allowed only 77 shots in 3 games, the lowest figure in the league. All in all, I expect a hard game of two very even teams that have offensive assets but we will probably not see a goal-fest here. Details

Zlin did not start the season in the best way, but this is a great opportunity to get some wind in their backs. Their guest will be the weakest team of the Czech Extraleague. Zlin covered this handicap in both of the matches on their home ice in the last championship and Karlovy Vary looked much better then, especially in the offence. Zlin's team is intact in the offense, the defense is getting around, but that should not be a problem against Energie. In the match against Mountfield they had only 12 shoots to the goal. The value in this bet lies in the following: Option that home team will score more than 2.5 goals is a miserable 1.40-1.50, so if it's so certain that Zlin will score more than three, and if we take into consideration Energie's weak offense, then it's logical to bet on their victory by two goals difference which is payed with 1.97 with a return if they win with a one goal difference. Details

The visiting coach says that the team which will play better defense today will be closer to victory, and I absolutely agree. Since I don't know who will play better defense I will not choose the winner of this match, but I'm pretty sure that both teams will play very good offense. In his short coaching career Luis Enrique has shown that he is a coach who likes to outplay his opponents and prefers an attractive offensive game, and his Celta is playing in this way. The team from Vigo creates a lot of opportunities in front of the opponent's goal, and scores relatively often, nearly two goals per game. However, the defense is far from that level. Villarreal is even better in terms of scoring goals, on average they score more than two goals, and their defense also can be quite permeable.
I expected minimal odds on multiple goals, so I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the offered quota. I planned to bet on over 3.5 goals with a minimal stake, but in the end I opted for a more modest 2.75 goals. This means that in a case of three goals, we win half of the bet, and half of the stake will be returned, and in a case of three goals we win a complete bet. Celta have scored over 2.5 goals only once this year, while Villarreal have always scored over 2.5 goals.
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At the moment, Manolo Cadenas is, in my humble opinion, in top five, maybe even top three world coaches. He took over Wisla after he accomplished amazing things with average team of Ademar Leon. He immediately got them in the Champions League. They defeated Montpellier after two matches. I have no doubt he will find some tactic against Kiel. And Cadenas is a true master when it comes to slowing down your opponent. He left Montpellier at 23 goals. I remember Kiel playing in Leon a few seasons ago. They had Narcisse, Omeyer and Ahl playing for them. The final score was 28-28. The Poles are pumped, the hall will be covered in blue colors and they will be a hard opponent for Kiel, I have no doubt. I originally wanted to take 3.5 on the Poles, but it's already down to 2.5, so I'll rather take the complete under. Apart from Nenadic and young Milas, Wisla are not a very fast team, which is seen in their results thusfar. Kiel are not very convincing lately, two lucky wins against Wetzlar and Gummersbach, and they didn't show much against recently promoted Eisenbach (29-23). But Kiel's defense did get a little bit better in the last few matches and Sjostrand improved on goal. That's going to be very important today. Details