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Tenis » Bucaramanga (M), Clay, Quarter-finals
OddsStatsTip
30.01.2016. 00:35 Finished
Victor Estrella Burgos - Mathias Bourgue (1:6 6:7)
Total games 20 tip: Over   Neco
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.83 5/10 1.78 20 Pinnacle
I definitely think the bookmakers failed to recognize the importance of elevation here, which is why I think the odds are off. I think Bourgue will put up a much better fight than the offs suggest. Estrella is ATP level, which I'm not trying to deny, but he is far from someone who will win his service games easily. Also, her serve was never great. He would lose service games even against players who are not as good as the Frenchman. He usually makes up for that against the opponents's serve but it seems like the margin is at least one game lower than expected, maybe even two.
Estella went over it in both of his matches here and played over 20 games in 8 out his last 10 wins on clay court. He once played exactly 20 and once got limited to under that number. He is currently on a 7-game winning run in which he needed at least 21 game, I don't see what's different now, especially given the surface speed here. Estrella is the favorite here and that is why the margin is set like this. Bourgue has seven overs at this margin in the last 10 matches he lost. I don't think he will just give up here. He has power that could cause Estrella problems. This margin is reachable even with an extra break for Estrella in each set. The chance for at least one tie break is there as well.
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**There is a chance that the odds shown on this page are not actual odds at this moment, due to a slight delay in processing the odds.

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