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The bookies were probably influenced by the fact Valencia don't need a win, while Neptunas do when coming up with these odds. But, that has nothing to do with anything. Perasovic's coaching position is in serious danger, with each new defeat providing his critics with a new argument. Valencia beat Kutxa by 10 points home, Galatasaray by 7, lost to Zvezda by 9 in one of their worst games, and to top table Olympiacos by 3. How about Neptunas? They lost all four away games, not once by less than 10 points (in Greece). I had three options to consider for this game, the first one being visitors' total points under set at 76.5 points because they went over that margin only once (Olympiacos, 79, with 26 points in the last quarter). In the other three, Neptunas scored 69 (Laboral), 68 (Galatasaray) and 62 (Zvezda). The second option was handicap at Valencia because they are the better team here and Perasovic won't let them not try today, while Neptunas do horribly away. Third option, which I settled for in the end, is home team total point over at 80.5 points. Granted, Valencia didn't score over that margin in any of the four home games, but Neptunas' defense is not as those other defenses. When it comes to away games, they conceded 88 against Laboral, 94 against Galatasaray, 79 against Zvezda, and 89 against Olympiacos. Even in their only tough away game in the domestic championship, Neptunas conceded over 86 (Zalgiris). Besides, they conceded 87 to Valencia home in the first head-to-head game this season and if this should be a successful bet if Valencia do well. Handicap might seem like a better option at first, but I don't want to be forced to dread whether Valencia will take the final shot if they are already in the lead.