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Basketball » France 2 (M), 22. round
27.02.2015. 20:00 Finished
Denain - Lille (64:73)
Total points (OT incl.) 149.5 tip: Under   Legolas17
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.85 4/10 - 148.5 Marathon bet
Denain have the fourth best defense in the league with a great average of 71.4 and 20 total points away from the second best defense, which means, when divided by 21 rounds played, Antibes are ahead by a point on average (70.4). Denain are even more impressive at home, averaging 69.2 points in 11 games, and allowing more than 70 in just 4 of those. Taking into account their matches from December to last round, and there were 12 in that period, they stayed under this margin 8 times (including an extended one against Fos which was at 70-70 in regular time). They went over against regular over playing Saint-Quentin, Fos, and in the two blowout games against Angiers and Aix. Lille score 73.3 in away matches, but the matches I see as relevant for them are the ones in 2015, as they switched coaches during the break. They seem more disciplined on defense under Aščerić, allowing 73 points per game (two extra time matches raise the average a bit), which is 4.5 lower than their season average. Under their new coach they too have five unders in six games at this margin, although I count the overtime matches as unders, since they stayed way below the margin in regular time. Apart from these dry numbers, there are two more reasons why this margin is too high. First is that the game is important for both teams, as Denain don't want a second consecutive defeat at home and want to stay in the top, and they usually win through defense. On the other hand, Lille are fighting for survival and will no go run and gun. The second reason is that the first game was a 65-63 win by Lille, waaaay below the margin.
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