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Poland will be under pressure here and we saw what that did to them against Serbia (0-3). I'll start with h2h meetings. They played three games in Poland when preparing for EC. The home team won the second one 4-1 and the third one. The Slovenians won the first one 3-2. Still, Kovac said he rarely used his best teams in test games. At the last EC, Poland won 3-1 in group stage, Slovenia won in QFs 3-2. In EC qualifiers, Poland won home 3-1 and lost 3-2 in Slovenia. Four month later, Poland because world champions and almost the exact same team played Slovenia and is better than De Giorgi's current team. 183 (15-25 first set), 223, 208 and 196 (13-25 last set) are numbers from their h2h games. On average, we saw 202,5 points.

Both teams played Russia. Poland lost home 0-3 with the same team even though Russia were without half of their top players. Slovenia had 24-22 in the first two sets against the top Russian team but lost both.
Both teams lost to Bulgaria, Poland 3-2, Slovenia 3-0 here.
Slovenia lost to Serbia in both preparation games (3-2, 3-1) while Poland lost 0-3 at the start. Slovenia beat Finalnd 3-1 at the first WL tournament and 3-0 at the second when everything was settled. Poland were better here 3-0. We can say that this margin is off and that it has a lot to do with the odds at home team's win, which I don't agree with either. When you have 202,5 on average in h2h meetings and the margin is set at 181,5 you have to take it.