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This match is important for both teams because they're fighting for the second place, which means home floor advantage till the final, and that is a big deal in Italy. I expect this game to be tough, and I'm thinking it will end with the under total. Their first league duel finished at 158 points, but with 52 in the last quarter. The Champions League two went to 102 and 130 points, far under the margin today. Venezia went over this margin only twice in the last 15 games, when Torino fell apart and the game ended at 159 points, and on the road against Cremona when they played the worst defense this season. Looking at their home games this season, they went over against Torino and Cantu when those two fell apart, and against Orade in an irrelevant Champions League game, and Saratov who aren't relevant, and Milano who are far stronger than Avellino offensively. Avellino lost a lot lately, focusing on the championship alone now. They played badly lately, but they can definitely play the defense. They had 142 points with Sassari, 156 with Reggiana who are much faster, 148 with Milano who hit only 68 points. They went over against teh fast Brindisi who fell apart in the first ten minutes, with Brescia, and Torino who are playing the worst defense in the league and like to play fast. They stayed under against the tougher teams, twice against Sassari, Trent, Pesara, Pistoia who are always good defensively when they're playing at home. The only time they went over in the CL was against Cibona. All in all, Avellino's results don't really favor the under pick here, but because of how important the game is, of Venezia's results and Avellino's relevant games, both in the national championship and the Champions League, I think this won't end with high numbers.