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Basketball » Belgium 1 (M), 24. round
OddsStatsTip
15.03.2017. 20:30 Finished
Hubo Limburg - Antwerp (76:78)
Total points (OT incl.) 163.5 tip: Over   Marko
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.83 5/10 1.70 163.5 Bet365
Mathematically speaking, this is a justified margin. Limburg are at an average of 163 points in the championship, Antwerp at 163. But I think the bookmakers didn't take into account the trend, especially at Limburg. Their first head-to-head finished at 145 points, and Limburg scored only 70 points. That was early in the season when they struggled with injuries, and their roster was not complete. They played a fast-paced game, because both teams prefer fast basketball, run-and-gun style (Limburg over 70 shots from the floor, the Giants over 60), but it was obvious that was still not it.
Limburg's coach Brian Lynch set the team up in the meantime, so they have been at an average of 166,1 points in the last 10 rounds, and they went over today's margin in 9 of the last 11 games (not only against defensively strong Oostende and Spirou). Against faster teams in the championship at home, they went over against Okapi, twice against Leuven and Willebroek, didn't go over only against Antwerp while they were in a bad period. The key thing is that they have improved offensively, they played their last game against Antwerp at 193 points (Limburg had 65 shots and 33 free throws, Antwerp 65 shots, 27 free throws).
Antwerp are led by a young coach, Roel Moors, whose philosophy is similar to Lynch's, because they both learned from the same man, Paul Vervaeck. Antwerp's offensive numbers are even better than Limburg's. They went over today's margin in away games at Okapi, at home finished at 161, at Leuven 171, at home 174.
Antwerp have mostly went over against teams similar to Limburg this season. Limburg are in fine form, we have two teams with similar playing style and I expect them to be over their averages in the championship this season.
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