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Basketball » ABA (M), 16. round
OddsStatsTip
03.01.2017. 18:00 Finished
FMP - Krka (78:60)
Total points (OT incl.) 153,5 tip: Under   Juraj
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.83 5/10 1.70 150.5 Bet365
Statistically this margin may be good, but there are many factors why I think this will be a tense game. This is one of the key games in the relegation battle and I expect a battle until the end. Of other comparable games from the bottom of the league table, FMP have a big under against Karpos, Mega Leks in the last round, but I am not writing this prediction because of FMP's numbers. They have a lot of overs on this margin, but often against teams who are offensively much better than today's Krka. As far as they are concerned, they are offensively one of the worst teams in ABA League, FMP are at an average of 74 points in this competition, Krka at 70, but they scored 97 against MZT and 96 against Mega where they improved their numbers. In the last 7 games in this competition they recorded only defeats, they scored 73 at Bar, 72 against Igokea, and that was in their first two defeats. Later they had 70 against Partizan, all other games were under that. This is not s purely statistical bet, but considering the situation where Krka are still missing their best offensive player, and FMP's powerlessness in offense, as well as the importance of the game, this is a good under for me, even though FMP's stats are not in favor of this and that is the biggest downfall here. As a good sign we have their first head-to-head at 131 points and I think we will watch a similar game today.

I decided here on the overall under because it is better than halftime, because of Krka who have shorter rotation, and FMP are prone to inconsistencies, so it is hard for me to say if the first quarter will stay under, or the third one will like against Mega where they scored only 14 points.
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