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Handball » Portugal 1 (M), 23. round
OddsStatsTip
18.02.2017. 18:00 Finished
Madeira - Arsenal (38:30)
1st half handicap -3,5 tip: 1   Makas
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.80 10/10 1.65 -4.5 Bet365
I have to admit that I don't really understand why the margin at handicaps is so low and we have to take advantage of that. Madeira are in great form, they got a point against Braga and then lost to Sporting narrowly but once against put up a great performance. They went on to face Sao Mamede and beat them by 20. Those opponents are along the lines of Arsenal's quality (to be precise, they are one level below). They need points because they are in a race with Aquas for spot 5. We should not doubt their motivation here. Let's only take a look at opponents who are Arsenal's level. They had a 10 and 11-goal win over Sao Mamede at half time (12 and 20 in the end), a 6-goal lead over Boa Hora both times (+9 at the end in both games), a 4 and 8-goal lead over Fafe (+4 and +8 in the end), a 13-goal lead over Horta (+16 in the end), a 6-goal lead over Arsenal in the first H2H (+10 in the end). Just to be clear, total handicap is a great option (5,5 at the moment, pays off to go 10/10 until it reaches 7,5), but Madeira settled all of the relevant games by half time. They didn't try too hard in the second half and that is why I'm going with 1st half handicap. Let's also note that Madeira have +5 at half time in both games with Avanca and +4 against tricky Beleneses. Arsenal were short of any serious opponents by half time: Sporting -7 (FT -11), Benfica -9 (FT -13), Porto -11 (FT -14), Avanca -7 (FT -6). That proves they cannot stand up to more powerful teams and they lose any chance in the first 30 minutes. Braga left them at -16 as well but the result at half time is not known. I'll go with the highest stake since there are no downsides to this tip.
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