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I don't think Ivanovic will make the mistake of engaging into outrunning with CSKA after the outcome of the first two games. Panathinaikos will probably try and slow down the game through tough defense like against Real in order to try and beat the objectively tougher opponent. Ivanovic and players were very clear about the necessity to play tougher, more aggressive defense, as well as bringing the number of mistakes down. That allowed CSKA to score a lot of free points. As for Panathinaikos' home games in Euroleague, those crucial ones almost always finished with small number of points (Žalgiris 135, Zvezda 143, Real 154, Alba 134). They went over that crazy night which finished with 18 three points at season opening with Fener, against offense-oriented Turow and Bayern and in the big over over Galatasaray (52 points in the last quarter). Exceptions are games against Barcelona and Maccabi, which finished at 158 and 159 points after nerve-wrecking finishes.

On the other hand and many time this season, CSKA's brilliant offense was often controlling the games. But everything there starts with tough defense that is getting better as the season advances. Panathinaikos would have been limited to around 60 and 70 points in Moscow if CSKA kept the level up until the end. I don't expect them to crush this oppoennt like that today, nor I expect CSKA to finish at over 90 points. I expect a tougher game in which the home team will stay close up until the very end. CSKA are tougher away and had a few of away matches like those in Top 16. CSKA stayed under this margin against offense-oriented Kutxa (155 points), with the only exception being the Olympiacos game, which finished at 160 points. They went over in unimportant games or when playing with no pressure. In VTB league, CSKA stayed under 154 and 148 points in tough away games against Lokomotiv and UNICS. Also, in tough games from Euroleague first stage finished at 151 after overtime (in Malaga) and 145 in Tel Aviv. We need to add that they were without Teodosic back then though. I don't see this as a one-sided win or a game with such efficiency like in the second game (CSKA at 61% from the floor), I expect this to finish with 150 or less points. Details

There's really no justification for these odds at the Polish team except for the fact they host this tournament. They have players from the home league and cannot be such heavy favorites against Japan, even though I think this is a 50-50 game, only because the Poles are hosting it. Poland lost to Great Britain twice in the preparation games. GB played a lower division and I really don't have much respect for that team. Japan are compact, faster, hard-working and even though Japan might sound exotic if you don't follow hockey normally, you couldn't be more wrong. They played a close game with Hungary the other day while Poland displayed less against Italy, who controlled the match and 10 shots more. Poland just got back into this division in which Japan are a household name and have far more experience. That is why the odds are not reasonable. Poland will need to play Ukraine to avoid a knock-out. Japan are more likely to win or play a close game than Poland being dominant. Details

The only reason behind this margin is the first h2h in which Leoben play a 31-31 draw against Hard. But, a lot has changed since. Barisic-Jaman scored team high 12 goals for Leoben and Markez scored team high 8 for Hard. Barisic is no longer at Leoben and Markez joined to replace him. He's good on the offensive end, having scored 8 goals in the last match but he is too lonely. Besides, the defense is horrible without Jaman. Leoben conceded 41 goal without him three days ago, and Hard reshuffled for the most part of the second half. Magelinskas had to use most of his starters all the time. Markez joined Hard last summer because the team lost first choice right back to an injury and the first middle back. Both of them are now back. If it hadn't been for hose, Markez would not have played an important role at defending champions. He's is far from top players at Leoben, which only goes to show how far they are above their opponents quality-wise. Hard will be happy only with the title, while Leoben only want to stay in the league, which already happened. I expect Hard to display dominance once again, especially since it's this part of the season. Details

This tip is based on Youzhny's bad game and Copil's good overall performances in Bucharest. The Romanian doesn't have a single match on clay this season but the situation was the same last year and he still beat Mannarino in the first round. The Romanian reached round two here 4 times in total. He has very good serve that easily goes over 220km/h. Her service is his strong suit because it allows him to collect a lot of free points. He likes clay because he doesn't move that well and clay conceals that. It also numbs the serve a bit but gives Copil good chance in rallies. We have a fired up local player who reached second round four times here and the Russian, who is having a horrible year, which is only a continuation of his decline that started last season. The usually emotional Russian is lifeless, emotionless and has not slammed a single racket against the floor this season. He seemed like the man who could retire very soon. He seems to be headed for a Top 100 exit, Youzhny doesn't seem good his games and results and bad, while Copil has the game, aggression and good results here. I'm sure he won't lose without putting up a good fight. If he loses at all. Details