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Despite the announcements, Kiel underestimated Szeged last week. Their body language showed it, and Gislason didn't start the match with their biggest weapon, the 3-2-1 formation, but with the softer 6-0. Szeged were leading 11-6 by the 15th minute already. Kiel pulled themselves together and lead 27-26 in the 54th minute. In short, they conceded 15 goals in the middle 40 minutes, and 16 in 20 minutes. Their defense was soft, not nearly as good as the one they used to crush their opponents this year. Kiel are playing at home today, they haven't lost a single game there this year, but on the other hand, they don't need to just win, they need to win by three, which means they'll try to crush their opponent. I think Gislason will use 3-2-1 from the start, and Bombač and his company won't know how to deal with it. Szeged's back line is the third left back of Spain, and Kiel's is a dream team - they have not only the first backs, but the best players of Croatia, Spain, Czech, Iceland, Germany and the second player for Serbia. Also, every one of them is among the best players of the world on their respective positions. True, that kind of math isn't really worth the time in handball, but still. Hats off to Szeged who are really a team that play the best within their limit, they played this Champions League great, but Kiel will easily pass through today. They have the goalie Palicka, will be fully focused and motivated, and the audience will stand for them. I expect those 40 minutes from Szeged (from the 15th to the 54th) to be applied from the beginning, and then the guests just have to worry to avoid a complete debacle. Details

I was pleasantly surprised with the margin for this game, and I definitely will use it. In a game with huge stakes, I don't think it will look pretty. Avellino have to win to keep their chances for the playoff alive, and Caserta have only four rounds to get away from the bottom. Statistically, this match's under is very well based. Avellino play at 149 at home, and with coach Frates' arrival, the defense became even more important. Caserta play at 152 away, and that gives us an average that's 6-7 points under the margin. The reason is the first match that ended at 196, but Caserta were falling apart with 14 defeats in a row. They'll die for every ball here, and I definitely don't see a game over 150 points. Details