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The margin is this high on a match with Zvezda for the first time this season. They're playing against Mega who score a lot, but Zvezda's defense stopped offenses much stronger than Mega's already this season. Zvezda went over this margin only four times this season, including the first one against Mega. I think we'll see a more controlled basketball today, because Zvezda won't be willing to try and outrun Mega. Stronger defenses, like Cedevita's, or Budućnost's, stopped Mega this season already, so I think Zvezda will do the same. Their captain Luka Mitrović announced the match by saying they don't plan to run fast, and that shows me how Zvezda will try to play. Mega won't give up on short offenses, but they didn't cover this margin in the last four matches, either. They might also play without Jokić, who leads the valorization in the ABA league, and if he doesn't play, they'll lose a lot offensively. All in all, this margin was made based on Mega's matches, and the first match they had against Zvezda, but I think we'll see a different Zvezda today, which is important for this tip. Details

Info we got this morning simply made us write this pick. Mantova, according to our reliable source, will be without three important players today. The center Jefferson, also the first scorer and the first rebounder of the team (14.9p, 11r), also the wing center Amoros (10.2p, 7.6r), and the point guard Fultz (7.6p, 4.5a). Mantova don't have much quality left without those, Rullo, Gaddefors and Moraschini can't do much against the good Trapani who failed before and now want some results because the fire is hot under their feet, they even announced the silenzio stampa (quiet with the press). The guests' motivation is definitely not questionable, and with the absences in Mantova, Trapani become a favorite, so these odds that are dropping should be used. Details

This bet is based on the law of big numbers, more or less. I think you just have to bet on home team's win because if Urbino don't win today, they probably never will. Another team barely holding it up, Forli, seem to be the only team they could defeat right now, and get their first points. They can hardly play worse than they did so far, and we can assume that the new coach arriving will shake them up a bit. All in all, there's a chance that the sun will finally shine for them, too. If they do want to have their say at all in this championship, it's five to twelve for their voice to be heard. Details

It was just a matter of time before the absence of two key players started to show for Kaštela. Mašić and Rančić would net up to 50 points per game for their team in some games, while their replacements Ćubela and Jukić are not in the same category after all. In the last round game Kaštela scored 74 against Šibenik at home, which is way below this margin, even with 27 of those scored after the game was decided, in the last quarter. Zagreb play better defense than Šibenik, with tricky pressing on the ball handler favored by Jusup that forces opposing point guard to make mistakes, and the resulting transition and easy points are what the Ants base their game on. I'm not sure how much Došen and Klarica can parry that with success. Prior Kaštela games are of little relevance here as they had Rančić and Mašić in them, and even then they stayed below this margin against Osijek and Gorica. Jusup got burned against Kaštela once, I doubt we'll see offensive elegance by the guests from Dalmatia in Trnsko this time. In closing, something for our subscribers to note: I don't like overall under here, as Kaštela have been known to allow opponents to score over 100 this season. Details

As next to last in the league, Koblenz changed their coach last month. Their new coach Dinčić got only three practice sessions prior to meeting the defending champions Thuringer, and had not chance against them. This week he was officially presented to the media, and said he will work on changing the attitude on defense and with some players whose attitude did not match their quality. What he was aiming at was, in essence, a serious commitment to defense, backed up by return of first goalie Branka Zec who missed the last game, and a calm offense without fumbles. Scoring is a big issue for them as it is, as they're second least scoring team with 24.5 per game.
The favored Buxtehuder on the other hand can be expected to score much less due to injury issues. They're missing captain Isabella Klein, Jana Podpolinski and Friederike Gubernatis, who combined for 65 goals in the championship prior to the break, with Gubernatis being their third best scorer. Earlier this month they reactivated 37-year old Stefanie Melbeck after two years. In her premiere against Oldenburg she played little, but against Leverkusen in the cup match she played full time and was the best player of the game. Due to a limited rotation, all players play both sides, which should take it's toll in the long run, especially on offense. They might struggle with their rotation even more today, as they' might be missing center back Randy Bulau who missed last two practice sessions, while picker Ulrika Agren did not even practice since the Leverkusen match due to tendon issues. In summation, in a duel between a home team in dire need of points and an away team with a wounded roster and limited resources, playing on at least 2-3 goals below the margin has value. Details

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No need to doubt that there'll be lots of "unders" in this competition, but the odds set by default make no sense to me. It's just not the same when Uzbekistan face North Korea, or UAE face Qatar. Today's opponents are one of the rare Asian teams who like to outplay each other. There's lots of chances in their games, and their biggest stars by far are the offensive players, who evoke interest in the European clubs, as well. Both these teams had games with no goals, but for example, UAE have 6/6 overs on the 1.5 margin in the qualifiers, and Qatar's got 3/3 (2 unders with Bahrein who finished the qualifiers with 7-1 in the group with Malaysia and Yemen, which tells you all you need to know about their game). In the last four games Qatar played, 14 goals were scored. Okay, two of those were friendly, but two before that were the Gulf Cup final and semifinal. Abdulrahman and Makbout on one side, and Ibrahim, Abdulla and Koukhi on the other should guarantee that we'll see at least two goals in this game. Details