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I went with handicap at Flamengo last round and failed in the most unbelievable manner. Despite being in a double-digit lead, which at one points went to 17 points, for the most part of the game, Flamengo lost by one point in the end. That is only additional reason for me to go with this bet. Flamengo open the game well and I think they will take a double-digit lead by half time. Last game was a great warning that they should not relax, which is why I'm sure they'll try their best from start to finish, which means Rio Claro won't stand a chance. They are not as good as Macae, the team that beat Flamego last round under strange circumstances. Marcelo, Herrman, and Meyinsse are better than the hole lineup at Rio Claro. Flamengo are the top offense in the league with 90 points per game, while the opponents score only 75. The stats suggest that the handicap was set wrong. The visitors are better, they're in the race for top spot and want to make amends after the slip, which makes them a very dangerous opponent. Details

Last year you were the title favorites, and this year you're on a catastrophic spot number 13. That's Brasilia's situation. Two best additions possible, who would next to recuperated Arthur be the axis of the team. One is a "beast" in the paint, gives his contribution to the rebound and defense, while the second one is old school. Goodridge, Giovanonni, and Cipolini together create the best paint of the league and it's only a matter of time when Brasilia is going to start using that. On the other hand, Sorocabana have no ambitions. They were left by their best player with an excuse that he "didn't want to be pushed around". Their additions are average. They brought in tired players who didn't make a difference so far in the NBB League. Brasilia couldn't have wanted a better opponent in the first match of the new year. They have two wins behind them, and a third one would lift their spirits. They're hosting Sorocabana whose newly-arrived trio still need to catch the pace of the game. The hosts are good on all positions, from the paint to the experienced, newly-arrived wing Lamonte, and play Fredo. They need a convincing win to get the fans back to their arena, and I'm convinced they will be victorious with a two-digit difference. Details

I think Besiktas are not such a heavy favorite and that these two teams are actually pretty close. I've seen their first head-to-head game, Besiktas were the home team back then too, and Pinar lost in the most unbelievable manner. Holland first scored an amazing three pointer with one minute left on the clock and Lofton then scored another for 75-75. Everything will be very close and tied today and I don't think Besiktas will score 80 points. Karsiyka have the players who can defend Holland and Lofton and both teams have mobile centers. There's not much room for making amends in Eurocup second stage, with Neptunas and Paris being two other teams in this group. The visitors would make a huge step forward by winning and I'm pretty sure they'll try their best here. Out of the 12 games of the season, they conceded more than 78 points only twice (Darussafaka 82 and Buducnost 79). At the same time, Besiktas scored over only in 3 out of their 10 Eurocup games. Details

The previous matches of these two teams speak volumes of their dedication to defense. When adding the importance of this game to the pot, I think we've every right to expect a game with smaller number of points. Both coaches talk about defense only. Buducnost won the last few games on account on aggression, especially home where they went over this margin only against Igokea in the meeting that was settled by half time. All their other matches were unders and judging by Banvitspor's last meetings, they are playing a more defense-oriented game too. This is a very important game for both teams and they will both focus on defending, which is why this 154-point margin seems like a good choice. Details

Hats off to Ploiesti for everything they've done so far, but this Lokomotiv are a few levels above when it comes to quality. Kuban-based team are putting all their focus into Eurocup from season's start, which resulted in 10 wins. Each win in Eurocup is important for the next stage and Lokomotiv want to win every game to be given a more favorable draw later on. This is the first game and a defeat in Romania would make things very complicated, seeing as Lokomotiv share this group with Nancy and Valencia. With Lokomoiv trying their best, I don't see a way in which Ploiesti could lose by less than 10 points. The Romanian team has had a few good home games, but when they met tough and good-quality teams like Oktjabr and Hapoel, they recorded defeats by 17 and 20 points. Lokomotiv are the best defense in Eurocup and Poliesti will have a very tough time dealing with that. Their defense, on the other end, won't be able to stop Lokomotiv's offense. Lokomotiv won each of their first stage away games by at least 8 points. I think the game in Turkey and the one in Greece and even Podgorica were all tougher than this one. Lokomotiv should be able to win this by 10-15 points. Details

The odds from the starting 1.55 - 1.60 on Gubernija jumped to over 1.90. The reason is well known - they're missing libero Yanutov, Pavlov is far from being ready although he's always in the line-ups, and surely the hard defeat against Samotlor had an effect on the market. Gubernija are having problems, but so does Fakel. Today's meeting will again be missed by the technician and leader of the team, Igor Kolodinsky. I would dare say Kolodinsky makes up half of the team because he's far the most experienced player and coach's extended arm. They were solid against Zenith, but then they arrived to Novy Urengoy and -40 degrees Celsius and the least popular term for games (lunch), and they had only one practice after winning the Cup. Another thing is also important - home court is home court, especially when we're talking about young teams such as Fakel. Next to Kolodinsky, Vlasov will also probably be issing. Gubernija's coach Konstantinov was furious after the defeat against Samotlor and I don't doubt he'll prepare his team for today's match. They are a more experienced team than Fakel, and rarely lose home matches (not counting Zenith, Belgorod, Dynamo Moscow and Lokomotiv), and it's hard to imagine two home defeats against teams of similar quality. Fakel won the first mutual match with 3-0, but Gubernija was without Kuleshov and Yosifov at the time (two very important players), and came after a difficult match three days earlier, while Fakel had Kolodinski and Vlasov who had eight blocks. I think Gubernija should be the favorite today, even a mild one. Details

The most important thing regarding Dodig is his back. Judging by the first round, things are good and he's healthy. After the initial 3-3 in the first set of the opening match, he went on to lose only one more game. Service was his best weapon once again, but Safwat was not the kind of opponent that can tell us how good Dodig is doing. Be that as it may, Dodig played a good match, which was not the case last season when he struggled with back injury. Like this, Dodig is set to get back in the Top 50. Berrer stunned Nadal in the first round. The Spaniard didn't play well, but Berrer had the mental strength in the third set. As I already said, qualifying matches are not giving Berrer the upper hand. On the contrary, it drains him of the little energy he has. The more matches he plays, the worse it gets. Dodig, on the other hand, wants to play as many matches as possible after 2014 that was not very good. I think Dodig is the better player and I wanted Berrer to beat Nadal in order to get good odds here. I think he's the favorite here to a greater extent than the odds would suggest, despite Berrer beating Nadal yesterday. I don't think that will help him much today since he's more tired each next match. Details

Although it's an incredibly important match, I don't see a reason not to have equal odds in Serpukhov. Grozniy won the first match in the championship, quite luckily and capable, how else can we describe results of 36-34 and 32-29. It seems that win left an impression on the bookmakers, although I see no reason for it. Neftyanik are without Bogomolov, but I wouldn't take it as a handicap. They're a far more experienced team than Prikamye and Grozny, and experience is very important in matches like this one. While Grozny's players spend themselves in the last match, coach Terentyev rotated against Belgorod and we can't talk about fatigue here. By Neftyanik's words, they submitted everything to this and the next match which speaks volumes. They won the first meeting with a convincing 3-0 and 19 points of differences, and they seemed to be in better shape than they are now. The pressure is definitely on the hosts' side, and I believe the Orenburg team will be victorious today. Details

The ones before the last team against the absolute leader and a team who know no defeat in the championship, and I'm playing for the home team taking one set? You're surely asking yourself why, and there are a few reasons. Ural played a solid match against Ugra and if there hadn't been reception problems, they would've taken one point at least. They gained a lot by getting Andrievski as the technician; he immediately spread the game and they looked like a super-league squad. Danilov returned on his natural oposite position, scored 26 points and showed how much he can give. Belgorod won Neftyanik 3-1 without Grozer, Travica and Tetyukhin, and today those absences could only be bigger. Belgorod are awaiting Zenith on Saturday, and by winning that match they would confirm their first place prior to the play-offs. Coach Shipulin is known for saving his players, so this doesn't fit into their plans for such a big match. Although there are no official confirmations, I expect he will rest Travica (who was in Italy three days ago), Grozer who was ill, and probably Khtey and Tetyukhin too. They have the width to win games such as this one, but I don't expect them to be victorious in three sets. The hosts won't lack motive, they really have nothing to lose, and they've taken a set in the first clash in Belgorod when they were objectively weaker than they are today. The away team will be thinking of their Zenith derby, I expect rotations and Ural should take a set. Considering everything mentioned, the value is more than enough to follow the set of the home team. Details

Although Tomić is a proven player while Kyrgios is a shooting star, many agree Kokkinakis is the most talented Australian player. As the youngest of the three and almost two meters tall, he is also a technically sound player who will quickly improve. At only 18 years old, one can already see positive advances in him. He seems stronger, which was his biggest problem, unsurprisingly considering his age. He likes challenges and does best in strong matches. Last year he gave Anderson and Lopez a hard time, and here he took down Benneteau losing just one serve. The Frenchman returns well, but he had no solution here. To be clear, Tomić also played well, but only after Querrey missed his serve for the match. Up to that point the American was untouchable for him. Charging in, Tomić scored four games in a row and broke the one-dimensional opponent. I'm convinced that Kokkinakis will often feature in bets this season. He is young and underrated, and has the skill and mindset to parry players up to Top 10. This is a local derby, the surface is fast, and they both have a good serve and an audacious attitude. Tomić will not have it easy and he knows that, especially after Kokkinakis won his strongest match yet, a Top 25 win in the first round. Details

Mirjana Lučić is the kind of a player who can lost to anyone and who can also beat just about anyone. There's always great lack of consistency in her game, but she worked on acquiring constituency the last season quite successfully. She's aggressive with powerful shots, physically powerful and if she focuses on the ball only while calm in the head, she's invincible. Her last match was a proof of her confidence and determination - it was not as easy a win as the final score suggests. Navarro rarely plays assertive game and mostly waits for the opponents to make mistakes. Her game has too many ups and downs and breaks down easily when playing better quality opponents. The problems is that most of her opponents fail to take advantage of that. But Mirjana is aggressive, fast, and powerful, which normally makes Navarro very insecure. The odds are set like this only because of Navarro's ranking and consistency, the realistic odds are at about 1.85 at both players. If Mirjana plays her game today, she will win easily. The odds set this high at Mirjana have extremely good value and cannot be missed out on. Details

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What to say about this match or about any match where one of the opponents is someone like sister Williams for that matter? They are on a completely different level and not many players are able to get more than just a few games when faced against them. Venus is feeling great here, she's healthy and injury-free, pretty motivated, boosted her game, plays tough and convincing game, and makes very few mistakes. Not many players could do anything when she's like that. She's got quite a few points to defend here and the fans love her. On the other hand, Nara has no special quality to her game, she's mediocre but moves great and had a pretty good game perception. She can cope with average rallies, but that will not be of much help when Venus sends her powerful shots her way. The outcome of this match is down to Venus only and since she's very keen on this tournament, I think it will be a very convincing win. Details

Ana was running a fever in the first round and managed to win easily regardless. The handicap was covered as she played calmly and once again served brilliantly. Granted, Barthel made her job a lot easier by making a lot of mistakes. But, the win will definitely give Konjuh a much needed boost of confidence. She is meeting the well-experienced Vesnina, who had nice memories of Auckland. She beat Mladenovic to advance to the second round. But, the more important thing is Vesnina's heath. Her shoulder was all bandaged up and is clearly still giving her a hard time. She will not risk an injury ahead of Australian Open and probably won't try her best today. It is quite obvious Konjuh will have the upper hand at serving and since she's healthy now, has the perfect chance to reach the next round. Vesnina prefers a more aggressive game, just like Konjuh, but she can't stand up to the Croatian when it comes to forehand power. This is the best draw Ana could have hoped for and I'm pretty sure she'll take advantage of it. Details

Before the match between Vinci and Coco, I believed the over can fail only if Coco played a good match and gets it over in two sets. Luckily for us, Coco fumbled. Although she beat Vinci, one needs to be realistic and admit she played poorly. Her return was disastrous in the first set, and although she improved later on, she won primarily because the Italian's performance took a nose dive. Vinci's game stagnated in the second part and she lost confidence on her serve, so Coco just took what was offered. Flipkens had a similar issue, having quite a few ups and downs in her performance, but also showed confidence when it mattered most. This is what guided me in this match. Both players have a good first serve, and we will almost certainly see one long set. They were also both inconsistent in the first round, and I just don't see this as a match where one of them scores a routine victory. Everything points to a 3 set match, and even if it's just 2 sets, I'm convinced one of them will give us a tiebreak, while the other will be decided by a break. Everything indicates a classic over for games. Details